Survivor
Week 13 was a rough one in the world of Survivor and Week 14 doesn’t have any of the double-digit favorites that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing of late. For those who are still surviving, it is a tremendous accomplishment to make it this far by navigating all of the landmines and car-swallowing potholes that you’ve had to maneuver around this season. Week 14 NFL Survivor picks mean that we only have five weeks left of the regular season.
That is, of course, if you aren’t playing in Circa Survivor or by Circa Survivor rules, which would have a sixth “week” that is the Christmas holiday. By now you know my whole spiel, so I can bypass that and share some suggestions on how to look at this week. Again, I try to be as time-relevant as possible with the weeks and the teams available, given that the list of palatable teams is probably dwindling for your entries.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks.
Week 14 Survivor Teams to Consider
Rams (-8) over Cardinals
One of the wrinkles to this article is that I don’t repeat teams, win or lose. All four NFC West teams have been picked in this weekly column. I’m not sure how many remaining entries have the Rams, Seahawks, or 49ers at their disposal if we’re being honest. But, if you do, the Rams are certainly an option this week.
From a very simplistic standpoint, the Rams are coming off of a loss. In their previous two games after losses, they beat the Colts 27-20 and outgained them 462-333 and beat the Ravens 17-3 on the road. So, there’s that. Also, the Cardinals simply aren’t a very good team, which is another pretty important part of this equation. LA is a top-five team in points per drive on offense and defense. Many believe they’re the best team in the NFC. It’s hard to argue with that.
PoolGenius puts the Rams at 79% to win this week, the highest win probability of any team.
Seahawks (-7) over Falcons
The other top team in the NFC West is a sizable favorite over a team with a bird mascot this week. It’s a less enticing situation with the Seahawks going all the way to Atlanta for an early kickoff, but the Falcons are pretty terrible. Kirk Cousins doesn’t seem to have a lot of fuel left in the tank and losing to the Jets is not really good for morale.
The Seahawks offense is starting to go in reverse a little bit, as they are down to 12th in EPA/play, but this is a top-three defense by EPA/play on that side of the ball. Atlanta’s defense has been decent at times, but the offense hasn’t been and Seattle, even with an offense approaching “mid”, as the kids would say, has a big defensive advantage here.
Seattle is still fourth in yards per play, but 22 turnovers have hurt the EPA numbers. The Falcons have 15 takeaways, nine of them interceptions, and it seems like that’s the only way they pull off the upset, so you’re just rooting for Seattle to take care of the ball.
PoolGenius has the Seahawks fifth at 74%, their highest remaining win expectancy for the season.
Broncos (-7.5) over Raiders
Another one that is pretty self-explanatory. The Raiders have only outgained the Browns and Titans on a per-play basis this season and that’s not the company that you want to keep. I can’t imagine that those numbers improve for Las Vegas in this game as they take on the NFL’s best defense by yards per play and Dropback Success Rate against. Even with Ashton Jeanty, the Raiders are 32nd in yards per carry and would have to beat Denver with the pass, which most teams can’t do.
What’s wild is that Denver has been dominant on defense while forcing only 10 takeaways. They only have seven picks and three fumble recoveries. The Raiders are tied for second in interceptions with 14 and have only scored on 26.3% of their possessions. It would be pretty shocking if the Raiders get out of single digits or the low teens here and their defense, while decent, probably can’t hold up well enough to beat that.
The Broncos are 75% to win per PoolGenius, easily their highest remaining win expectancy.
Week 14 NFL Survivor Pick
Buccaneers (-8.5) over Saints
The other three considerations are all road teams, while this is a home team and will likely be the biggest favorite of the week when all is said and done. The Buccaneers don’t have the most impressive offensive profile, but they’ve taken excellent care of the football this season and that might be all it takes against the Saints. The Bucs are actually being outgained by 0.6 yards per play and are likely a regression candidate, but this line has increased slightly, even though a lot of betting models are yards per play based and we’d usually see a team like this get picked against.
But, the Bucs also recently got Chris Godwin back and Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are on the comeback trail, so that should give the team a bit of a boost for the postseason push. They may not be back this week, but it’s a big game given the standings and it’s akin to the free space in Bingo playing against a 2-10 team. So, hopefully, the Bucs are going to be fine here.
The Saints have only scored on 28.2% of their possessions and they’ve given up 23 first half touchdowns while only scoring one in the first quarter and seven in the second quarter. It forces them to become one-dimensional on offense throughout the game and that should help Tampa Bay here. The Bucs have a stout run defense, but have struggled against the pass. With no threat of a balanced attack on the other side, it should mitigate their biggest weakness and make them a winner here in Week 14.
PoolGenius has the Bucs at 77% to win.
Pick: Buccaneers
Teams Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Bills, Packers, Patriots, Falcons, Rams, Panthers, Steelers, 49ers, Ravens, Chargers
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