NFL Week 15 opening line report

December 11, 2023

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Taking a look at the NFL Week 15 schedule

The ink isn’t quite dry on Week 14 yet, as we have two Monday Night Football games to consider, but the other 28 teams have moved on to Week 15. My right-hand man Zach Cohen has previews and picks for Titans vs. Dolphins and Packers vs. Giants, so I’d encourage you to check those out.

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As far as Week 15 goes, the schedule changes a bit now. There are three games on Saturday this week to go along with the regular Thursday Night Football clash. More quarterbacks either went down with injuries or got replaced this past Sunday, so that remains a prominent storyline as we head into the next round of action.

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Here are some Week 15 thoughts:

(odds as of 12/11, 12:30 a.m. PT)

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-3, 34.5)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

The Raiders got shut out by the Vikings, but find themselves favorites here because Justin Herbert fractured his right index finger, likely ending his season. Backup QB Easton Stick was 13-of-24 for 179 yards with a sack and nearly a strip six, but the play was called back on review. Even when Herbert was out there, he was just 9-of-17 for 96 yards with a pick. He was sacked four times. Nothing is going right for the Chargers and Brandon Staley’s days are more numbered than ever. We’ll see if the Chargers do fire him on a short week, but the Raiders, who looked rather awful, are now favored with about a seven-point adjustment to Herbert’s injury.

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-4, 40)

Saturday, 1 p.m. ET

Once again, the Bengals got a fine performance out of Jake Browning and they more than doubled up the Colts to get back in the AFC playoff picture. Meanwhile, the Vikings needed Nick Mullens to step in and lead a game-winning field goal drive for a 3-0 dub over the Raiders. So, we’ve got a QB controversy on a short week for the Vikings and we have Browning playing like a healthy Joe Burrow. The Bengals defense also really stiffened up, allowing just seven points and 4.5 yards per play. This line was a pick ‘em on the lookaheads. It is not a pick ‘em now.

Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (-4, 47)

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET

This is a line we should watch closely throughout the week. The Broncos had a 1st-and-Goal against the Texans two weeks ago with a chance to win, but couldn’t punch it in. That is Denver’s only loss since Week 6. On the flip side, a lot of excuses were made for the Lions this past week, as they lost in ugly fashion to the Bears. Detroit won’t play another game outdoors for the regular season and we know that Jared Goff has issues in the elements and in the cold, but the Lions defense is riding the struggle bus to work. They’ve allowed at least 26 points in each of the last five games and six of the last seven. Let’s see if the market likes the surging dog here.

Atlanta Falcons (-3, 35) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Is there any number where you’d feel comfortable taking the Panthers here? The Falcons are not a very good team, but Carolina had 3.8 yards per play against the Saints this past week. Bryce Young was 13-of-36 for 137 yards. Maybe we saw something of an interim coach bump in the cover against the Bucs, but the Panthers have zero margin for error on offense. People will point out how the Panthers outgained the Saints by nearly 100 yards, but they ran 79 plays to get just 303 yards. They were 1-for-7 on fourth down and 8-for-20 on third down, so they had no early-down success to speak of. They also failed in both red zone appearances.

Atlanta outgained Tampa Bay by 150 yards and a full two yards per play, though some of that came on Desmond Ridder’s desperation heave at the end. Ridder had a backbreaking pick and missed some open touchdown throws. The Falcons missed two field goals. Bad teams make those mistakes. Can Atlanta avoid enough of them against the worst team in the league to win and cover here?

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 48.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

The Commanders are a really interesting team to me this week. They’re coming off of the bye, so bruised, beaten, and battered QB Sam Howell had a chance to rest his body after absorbing 58 sacks in the first 13 games of the season. Maybe there will be a bit of a bump for them, but also, they had a really late bye week in the midst of a lost season and one in which they were a clear seller at the Trade Deadline with no inkling of trying to compete. Nothing against Howell, who is battling his backside off, but there are a lot of quarterbacks in the top 10 of the 2024 NFL Draft. Losing should really be encouraged, especially with a clean slate for the organization with Dan Snyder gone and Ron Rivera fired.

The Rams offense looked great against the Ravens and who knows what would have happened if one of many blocks in the back would have been called on the game-winning punt return TD. The Rams defense played a little better than the final score would indicate. They had problems containing Lamar Jackson, who extended a lot of plays. Howell won’t do that and he’s not the same kind of runner. I wonder if we see 7 here as the week rolls along.

Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 48.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

The Cowboys certainly put a lot of emphasis into the game against the Eagles last week, as it was a revenge game with a lot of NFC playoff implications. The Bills beat the Chiefs, but it wasn’t all that pretty and there are still a lot of long-term questions about Buffalo, including head coach Sean McDermott, who was in some hot water for some things he said to his team. He followed that up with a comically-bad display of game management that nearly lost his team a game.

So, I think this is a hard line to set and a hard game to bet. The market will surely have opinions, as it always does in the NFL, but I have a hard time liking either side here, as a compelling case can certainly be made each way.

Early line I like for Week 15:

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 47) at Seattle Seahawks

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

The Eagles are going to have to answer a lot of questions this week. And most of them are going to start with “What’s wrong?” This has not been a good defensive team for a while now. The offense has largely been okay, but there are noticeable drop-offs, likely having to do with the absence of Shane Steichen. There comes a point where coordinator turnover is a lot to overcome and I think the Eagles are at that point.

Are the Seahawks a good team? Maybe, maybe not, but Drew Lock looked pretty good filling in for Geno Smith and Smith has a good chance of being back this week anyway. It’s a long trip for another spotlight game featuring the Eagles and another against a potent group of skill-position talent. I certainly wouldn’t want to lay a number with them in that scenario.

Pick: Seahawks +4.5