Survivor
Another big favorite and popular Survivor team went down in Week 14. As we head into Week 15, your Survivor contest may already be over or on the verge of finishing. The Circa Survivor started with 18,718 entries that cost $1,000 each and only 10 of those entries are left standing. The Circa Grandissimo ended its inaugural season on Thanksgiving Week with six entries splitting the prize pool.
Two normal weeks are left before the Christmas “Week” and then the usual Week 17 Sunday and Monday action. We’ll see how many entries make it to that point. Circa has been kind enough to provide a Team Availability Chart to show which teams the entries still have available and there sure are some interesting decisions to be made the rest of the way.
I’ll try to keep in mind the widely available teams so that I can give the best possible info for the remainder of the season.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks.
Week 15 Survivor Teams to Consider
Texans (-9.5) over Cardinals
Fresh off of an impressive win against the Chiefs, the Texans host the hapless Cardinals as one of the biggest favorites on the board. This Houston team has boasted an outstanding defense all season long, but Davis Mills seemed to spark the squad, especially in the comeback win against the Jaguars with 26 points in the fourth quarter. With CJ Stroud now back, the offense hasn’t put up prolific numbers by any means, but they don’t have to with a defense allowing just 16 points per game.
This is a Cardinals crew that ranks 22nd in percentage of possessions ending with points, and they’d be even better if their kickers weren’t collectively 76% on field goals. They actually have the sixth-most red zone attempts in the league. They are 3-10. So, while the offense has had flashes of respectability, the defense gets very little pressure and generates very few negative plays.
Arizona has dropped five in a row, Kyler Murray won’t play another game, and it looks like some major shuffling is coming this offseason. This is a team that has allowed over 40 points three times in their last five games. You hate to use the “Q” word with professional athletes, but…
PoolGenius lists the Texans at 80% win expectancy, but they host the Raiders and are listed at 83% for next week, so you can save them and probably should with all the other options.
Seahawks (-13.5) over Colts
None of the remaining Circa Survivor entries have the Seahawks and I’m sure most of you don’t as well, if not all of you who are still alive. So, they get a token mention here, getting pushed out to about a two-touchdown favorite with Daniel Jones out for the season and the possibility of Philip Rivers, signed off of his living room couch, as the starter.
The Seahawks are No. 1 in PoolGenius win expectancy at 88%.
49ers (-12.5) over Titans
We’ve got all sorts of double-digit favorites this week. Six of the remaining 10 entries in Survivor have the 49ers and that looks like the pick to me for those folks. One of them doesn’t have the Eagles, but saving Philadelphia isn’t a bad idea with two games left against Washington. Personally, for this “entry”, I do not have them. But, they’re a great option for those who do.
It’s Kyle Shanahan vs. an interim head coach with a long trip to Santa Clara for Tennessee and rookie QB Cam Ward. The 49ers do play in Indy next week and could be used there and they’ll wrap up with the Bears and Seahawks, spots where they are a lot less attractive of an option.
PoolGenius lists the 49ers at 86% win expectancy this week and 74% next week at the Colts, so you can take your pick if they’re still available.
Bears (-7.5) over Browns
Only one of the remaining Circa Survivor entries has the Bears left, so it’s hard to tip them as the pick this week, since I’m sort of using that as a blueprint for team availability. That being said, the Bears are on my available list, since my “entry” is not using any repeat teams and they have not been an option for me yet.
Shedeur Sanders did look really good last week in some bad weather and it will be bitter cold in the Windy City for this one. Chicago is obviously the far superior team, though it’ll be interesting to see how Caleb Williams handles the cold. Cleveland’s defense is still disruptive, despite a ghastly performance last week against the Titans.
Again, not a widely available option, so I’ll pass, but they are 76% per PoolGenius and this is the only spot left to use them if you haven’t with Packers, at 49ers, Lions to end the season.
Jaguars (-13.5) over Jets
There are so many options this week that it simply comes down to team availability. The Jaguars are a team that a good percentage of entries should still have and six of the 10 left in Circa Survivor have Jacksonville as an option. Things are trending towards Brady Cook getting the start for the Jets against a Jaguars team that I have really liked throughout this season and will love for next season if they can move on from Trevor Lawrence and upgrade at the position.
The Jags are locked into what may become a two-team battle with the Texans, as the Colts are going to need some miracles to stick around in that division race the way that things are trending. Jacksonville plays Tennessee in Week 18 and that might be a game that they need, which is why I’m okay with holding onto them here. They also have a road game at Indy if the Colts look that bad with Rivers at the helm.
It is a nice note that the Jets only have two takeaways this season and both are fumble recoveries, which seems virtually impossible. I’m not sure if a team has ever gone an entire season without an interception. If they don’t get one off of Lawrence, who knows if they will.
Tough call here between the Jaguars and Eagles, in my opinion. I think they’re 1a and 1aa, if even separated by that much. The Jaguars are 86% to win per PoolGenius, but I think the possibility of Week 18 and whatever the Colts are now in Week 17 as opposed to what the Commanders are now for next week makes Philly the play ever so slightly.
Week 15 NFL Survivor Pick
Eagles (-11.5) over Raiders
In that Circa Survivor availability chart linked above, nine of the 10 entries do have Philadelphia available and I do with this “entry” as well. It seems like a cop out at this stage of the game to make the Eagles the official pick, but this is the spot that I had circled for them and they had to be kept around through Thanksgiving since they played on Black Friday.
As it turned out, using them against the Bears was a scary enough proposition to stay away (though the Ravens lost anyway, knocking out a bunch of entries) and they were not an option on the road against the Chargers last Monday night. But they are an option here and a very good one at that.
While not the biggest favorite on the board, they are close. It looks like we’re getting a Kenny Pickett Revenge Game opportunity here with Geno Smith not practicing. The desert-dwelling Raiders play in a dome. They now get to play outside in Philly with temps around freezing. Pickett is certainly used to it, but remember that one of the knocks on him was hand size coming out of Pitt, so we’ll see if he gets a good grip on the ball. Even if he does, the Raiders have scored on just 27% of their possessions and have 4.5 yards per play, ranking 31st and 30th, respectively.
Regardless, the Raiders are one of the worst teams in the NFL and it’s a good bounce back spot for an Eagles team that has lost three in a row and badly needs a win.
Even though the Jaguars are a very good option, Philadelphia is likely to sit players in Week 18 at home against Washington, making them a less attractive option there, so I’ll go with them here.
PoolGenius lists the Eagles at 83% win expectancy.
Pick: Eagles
Teams Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Bills, Packers, Patriots, Falcons, Rams, Panthers, Steelers, 49ers, Ravens, Chargers, Buccaneers
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