We’ve hit that stretch of the NFL calendar when Saturdays officially join the party. The playoff picture is tightening, the stakes are higher, and for bettors, these matchups offer fresh angles to attack before Sunday’s chaos kicks in. The Week 16 Saturday slate brings two divisional tilts worth circling — the Eagles take on the banged-up Commanders, while the Packers battle the Bears in a matchup with NFC North implications. Let’s dig into both and break down where the betting value lies heading into December 20.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of December 18, 6:30 pm ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits. See all of our Week 16 NFL Content.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 44.5) at Washington Commanders
5:00 pm ET
It’s a bummer that Jayden Daniels will miss the remainder of the season for the Commanders, but Washington can still be competitive against this Philadelphia team. The Eagles are coming off a dominant 31-0 victory over the Raiders last week, but they were on a three-game losing streak (both straight-up and against the spread) heading into that one. Since Week 10, Philadelphia is just 24th in the NFL in EPA per play (-0.052). That’s problematic heading into this week.
While Washington’s defense has been miserable this season (31st in EPA per play allowed at 0.147), this is a team with a defensive-minded head coach. Dan Quinn should be able to look at the film and find ways to make Jalen Hurts and Co. uncomfortable. If he can, there’s a good chance this game ends up coming down to the wire.
The Commanders have had Daniels in and out of the lineup all year, but Marcus Mariota, who has a rock-solid Pro Football Focus passing grade (71.4), has done well running the show. He’s doing a good job of distributing the ball quickly in this Kliff Kingsbury offense, plus he has the ability to make plays with his legs. The latter should be a factor against a dangerous Eagles defensive line.
Divisional games are also never that easy. These NFC East teams desperately want to beat one another, so there will be some fight in Washington. The Commanders are also 3-1 ATS as home underdogs of 7 or fewer under Quinn. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 1-2 both SU and ATS on Saturdays under Nick Sirianni, and they’re also 13-16-1 ATS as road favorites with him on the sidelines.
I just like the idea of taking the points here, but I’m grabbing an extra 0.5 and paying up a little to do so.
Pick: Commanders +7.5 (-125)
Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 46.5) at Chicago Bears
8:20 pm ET
This game is definitely the main event when looking at the two-game Saturday slate. The NFC North is arguably the best division in football this season, and we just saw these two play an awesome game against one another in Week 14. That was a game in which Chicago had a real chance to win at Lambeau Field, and Caleb Williams even had Cole Kmet streaking open for a potential game-tying touchdown on a late-game fourth-down play. However, Williams ended up holding the ball a little too long, throwing a pick in what ended up being a 28-21 win for Green Bay. The Bears will now be hoping that playing at Solder Field will swing things in their favor.
Green Bay is a perfect 4-0 both SU and ATS in divisional games this season, which is quite impressive considering the strength of the other teams. However, Chicago is 5-1 straight-up when playing at home this season. Meanwhile, under Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 11-17 ATS as road favorites. They’re also 2-3 ATS in Saturday games in that span.
I’m just not sure the Bears should be underdogs here. While the Packers are great, Ben Johnson’s team is legit. All year long, people have been calling the Bears lucky, but they have the league’s fifth-best Rush EPA per play (0.007). They’re also 13th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.000). For the longest time, NFL experts have said that having a good running game and a good defense can make you a good football team. However, everybody seems to be skeptical with Chicago. Well, I’m a big believer in what this team is doing, especially with Caleb Williams playing some better football this year.
I just think there’s a real chance the Bears run all over the Packers. They got 120 rushing yards out of D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai last meeting, but they’re capable of turning things up a bit. I also don’t see Jordan Love having as much success this time around. He had a Passer Rating of 120.7 in a three-touchdown performance in Green Bay, but he won’t be as comfortable in a road game.
It’s very hard to beat teams twice in a row in the NFL — and that’s especially true with good teams. Chicago should get some revenge here, keeping the team’s NFC North hopes alive.
Pick: Bears +1.5 (-120)
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 16 games on our Pro Picks Page.
