Survivor
We may not be quite at the season finale of Survivor: NFL Edition, but we sure seem to be getting close. There are 10 entries left in Circa Survivor and maybe even less than that in your personal Survivor pool. Because there are 32 NFL teams and we’ve had 15 (or 16 in Circa Survivor) weeks of picks, you probably have more teams available than there are entries left in your pool, but there are also several teams hanging out in the leper colony.
Week 16 NFL Survivor is not as easy as what we had last week, as there were several double-digit favorites. This week, we have a couple, but the Bills and Texans are probably teams no longer available to you or other surviving entries. In looking at Circa Survivor, three entries have the Texans, one has the Bills, and one entry actually has both of them.
Like I’ve said, I’m trying to provide as much relevant info as I can and that means using teams that are more widely available, or at least available to my article “entry”, which was eliminated a while ago.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks.
Week 16 Survivor Teams to Consider
Bills (-10.5) over Browns
Again, likely not available to you or others in the contest, but if you do have the Bills, they’re a pretty solid and likely pretty safe pick against the Browns. While Shedeur Sanders has shown flashes in his four starts, the Browns are 31st in EPA/play from Week 12-15 when Sanders has started. In that same span, the Bills are sixth in EPA/play.
The Cleveland defense is still seventh in EPA/play in that span, but you’re not facing quarterbacks the caliber of Josh Allen more often than not. The Browns have faced the Raiders, 49ers, Titans, and Bears. Not exactly any Josh Allens on those teams.
Out of 25 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays from Week 12 to Week 15, Sanders ranks 24th in EPA/play (btw, Baker Mayfield (!) is 25th). In that same span, Allen is fifth. For once, the weather doesn’t look downright miserable in Cleveland on a December Sunday, so this could be a good game to bet the Over, but also one where the Bills probably prevail.
PoolGenius has the Bills as the second-highest win probability team at 80%.
Texans (-14) over Raiders
There are some really, really bad teams in the NFL, but the Raiders might be the worst. The defense is pretty decent, allowing 5.2 yards per play. But, the offense is abhorrent, averaging just 4.4 yards per play. They’ve turned the ball over 18 times and 15 of them have been interceptions.
The Texans are fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed and third in takeaways. That seems like a bad matchup for an offense that is already terrible and getting worse. Since I still had the tab open, I looked at the Raiders in the Shedeur Sanders era and that’s the only offense that is worse than Cleveland’s over the last four weeks.
The Texans have only allowed points on 25.8% of possessions against the defense. As much hard work as the Raiders defense has done, they rank 24th in percentage of possessions ending in points because of all the turnovers and short fields.
PoolGenius has the Texans as the highest win probability team at 86%.
Eagles (-6.5) over Commanders
If you’ve held on to the Eagles until this point, kudos to you. That’s a pretty good team to still have available at this stage of the game, even if they don’t quite look like they have in past seasons. You’re still getting almost a touchdown road favorite on a short week here, which implies an easy double-digit favorite role at home, so the oddsmakers still have this team held in high regard.
Philly has something to play for this week, in that a win means that they lock up the NFC East Division and become the first repeat winner since they reeled off four in a row from 2001-04. Yes, that’s actually a true statistic. The Eagles won in 2024, 2022, and 2019, while the Cowboys won in 2023, 2021, and 2018, with the Washington Football Team during the 2020 COVID year.
So, that’s a tangible target to aim for if you’re the Eagles. Washington also had lost eight in a row before beating the Giants last time out and they rank 31st in yards per play on defense, have only forced eight turnovers, and have turned the ball over 20 times. Road teams in division games are scary and said to be a no-no, but for the seven out of 10 remaining Circa Survivor entries with the Eagles, they are not a bad option at all. I, and likely many others, picked them last week against the Raiders in this article.
PoolGenius has the Eagles at 72% win probability.
49ers (-5.5) over Colts
The Philip Rivers experiment didn’t go as poorly as many of us thought that it would last week, but still. The Colts had just 3.8 yards per play and lost for the fourth straight time. Sure, they had a chance to win and Jason Myers buried a long, walk-off field goal, but it really was a ghastly offensive performance. Jonathan Taylor had 25 carries for 87 yards, as the Seahawks just dared the Colts to throw the ball. The 49ers will do the same thing.
Like the Eagles, the 49ers have some postseason implications here, as a win locks up a playoff berth. The NFC West probably won’t be decided until the final week of the season, but San Francisco would lock up a spot in the second season by beating the Colts.
Again, just because I had that four-week sample from Week 12 to Week 15 open from the Shedeur discussion up top, the 49ers are seventh in EPA/play on offense and eighth in EPA/play on defense in that span. After surviving a multitude of injuries, this team is playing like a top-10 caliber squad and it seems very unlikely that the Colts can keep up. Only 3/10 Circa Survivor entries have the Niners left, but I wanted to mention them anyway.
PoolGenius has the 49ers at 71% win probability.
Note: I can’t imagine anybody has Detroit left, so I’m skipping over them. 0/10 in Circa Survivor, which is what I’m using as my barometer.
Week 16 NFL Survivor Pick
Saints (-5.5) over Jets
When this season started, I had no visions of taking New Orleans in this article or with any of the entries I was associated with. In fact, I just assumed I’d keep going against New Orleans a lot. And I have to some degree and they’ve burned me a couple of times. But, they’re a widely available team and they’re in a really good spot here this week.
Kellen Moore has this team moving in the right direction and it’s very fair to wonder where they’d be had they gone to Tyler Shough sooner in a division that nobody wants to win. This is a Saints team that sits ninth in EPA/play on defense in that four-week sample I keep referencing. Shough is a top-10 QB by EPA+CPOE Composite over the last three weeks. He’s actually seventh in Success Rate.
Meanwhile, the Jets are starting Brady Cook again as they play out the string on the season. Cook has one touchdown against five interceptions in just 63 pass attempts this season with a start and one relief appearance, so it’s definitely hard to see him finding success against an improving Saints defense.
The Jets fired their DC on Monday and are dead last in EPA/play over the last four weeks. They stink and it’s fair to wonder how much effort is left in this team, while the Saints look like they’re hellbent on finishing the campaign strong.
The Saints are 70% in win expectancy per PoolGenius.
Pick: Saints
Teams Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Bills, Packers, Patriots, Falcons, Rams, Panthers, Steelers, 49ers, Ravens, Chargers, Buccaneers, Eagles
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