NFL Week 17 Betting Splits Systems Update:

The DK Betting Splits have taken off this season in their popularity. They have always been one of the most touted links on the VSiN.com website and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors.

If you’re not familiar, these are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In preseason articles published in the 2024 Football Betting Guides, I outlined different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season for both college and pro football.

 

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NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, BUFFALO, MIAMI, WASHINGTON, DETROIT 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 91-117 ATS (43.8%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, BUFFALO, CAROLINA, DALLAS, GREEN BAY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 96-114 ATS (45.7%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, BUFFALO, CAROLINA, DALLAS, GREEN BAY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups have actually been quite sharp, as this majority group is 60-50 ATS (54.5%), performing at nearly the exact same level in each season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, LAS VEGAS 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 108-123 ATS (46.7%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, LAS VEGAS, TENNESSEE, MIAMI, DETROIT

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain”, they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): CAROLINA, DALLAS, GREEN BAY 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 78-95 ATS (45.1%) and 76-94 ATS (44.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, DETROIT 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022-24 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 69-56 ATS (55.2%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CAROLINA, LAS VEGAS, GREEN BAY

The following are some new money line systems we will be employing going forward… 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle has backed a team in a money line wager but not real strongly (in the 40%-60%) range, they have really struggled in 2024, going 16-26 for -13.71 units of loss, a ROI of -32.6%. It seems that conviction is an important thing when majority groups get together. If it seems as if the DK betting public might be “guessing” as to who wins, fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS ML, TENNESSEE ML, GREEN BAY ML

NFL DK Betting Splits system #10: Super majority handle bettors of more than 75% have also struggled in games when backing bigger favorites on money lines. In games with point spreads of -4.5 or higher (approx. -225 or more ML), this super majority group has gone just 23-13 but for -15.53 units of loss, an ROI of -43.1% in ‘24. Public bettors tend to look at these games as more “automatic” wagers, and as you can tell, they aren’t.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO ML, TAMPA BAY ML, PHILADELPHIA ML 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #11: Majority number of bets groups have been at their best in 2024 on money lines in the Sunday afternoon games when backing small favorites (4 points or less, and approximately -220 or less). These groups boast an impressive 33-10 record for +18.93 units of profit and an ROI of +44%! These include the games in the 1:00 p.m. ET-4:30 p.m. ET starting slots, and with more choices at these times, bettors are faring well.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LAS VEGAS ML, MIAMI ML, MINNESOTA ML 

These next systems cover totals…

NFL DK Betting Splits system #12: Since 2022, the average NFL total has been right around 44 or a tic higher. Since mid-2023, majority handle bettors have been very sharp in dealing with totals at or below that number (44 or less). In fact, since November 2023, these groups have gone 97-66 (59.5%)! It’s in the higher totaled games that they typically fare worse.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): Over – IND-NYG, TEN-JAX, DAL-PHI
UNDER – LVR-NO, MIA-CLE 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #13: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total Over the last two seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 70-52 ATS (57.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 54-39 (58.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LVR-NO, NYJ-BUF, MIA-CLE

NFL DK Betting Splits system #14: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for a super majority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022-24 with a record of 121-153 (44.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): CAR-TB, DAL-PHI, GB-MIN, DET-SF 

NFL DK Betting Splits system #15: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 50-74 (40.3%) Over the past two-plus seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): CAR-TB, DAL-PHI

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