An early look at the NFL Week 17 schedule
We are down to two weeks in the 2023 NFL regular season, which means that we have games with enormous playoff implications remaining and games that will determine the 2024 draft order. We’re starting to enter a tricky time for handicapping, as players will begin sitting out soon. But we’re a week away from things getting very messy, as too many teams still have something to play for this week. With that in mind, taking some time to check the early lines is important so you can see where a line is and where it might be going.
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Here are some Week 17 thoughts:
(odds as of 12/25, 7:00 a.m. PT)
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-7, 36.5)
Thursday, 8:15 pm ET
It’s a short week for both teams, but that should benefit the Browns. They’re the better coached group. They’re also first in the NFL in Defensive DVOA, so the Jets are in trouble with their abysmal offense. But how will Joe Flacco play against his former team? That will determine whether or not Cleveland covers this big number. Either way, a lot of points shouldn’t be expected in this spot.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6, 52.5)
Saturday, 8:15 pm ET
The Lions clinched their first ever NFC North division title with their win over the Minnesota Vikings last week. Now, Detroit heads to Jerry World for a meeting with a Dallas team that has lost two games in a row. This is a hard one to pick a side, as the number is rather big. However, this should be a high-scoring game. Dallas is averaging 39.9 points per game at home this season, and we know Jared Goff and this Detroit offense prefer a retractable-roof stadium.
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6, 37.5)
Sunday, 1:00 pm ET
Before the Panthers played a competitive game against the Packers last week, this line saw the Jaguars favored by 7.5. Now, Carolina has covered in three of its last four games. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is on a four-game losing streak — both straight up and against the spread. So, this is an intriguing matchup all of a sudden, but the Jaguars badly need a win here. There’s a three-way tie atop the AFC South standings.
San Francisco 49ers (-13.5, 48.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, 1:00 pm ET
The Commanders looked like they were on their way to getting blown out by the New York Jets last week. Then, Washington replaced Sam Howell with veteran Jacoby Brissett for the second week in a row. Brissett has now proven that he can spark this offense, as he nearly orchestrated a massive comeback win over New York. So, this is something of a hard game to call, as we just don’t know what this Washington team will be. But the 49ers are still head and shoulders above the Commanders on both sides of the ball, so this could turn ugly. But an Over wouldn’t be out of the question with Brissett, as he makes the entire Washington offense better.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 41.5)
Sunday, 1:00 pm ET
This is one of the more intriguing games on the Sunday slate, as the Buccaneers clinch the NFC South with one win in their next two games. Meanwhile, the Saints aren’t out of the NFC playoff picture. So, this game will have a playoff-like intensity, but it’s hard not to be impressed with Tampa Bay right now. The Bucs have won four games in a row. They’re also 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 42) at New York Giants
Sunday, 1:00 pm ET
The Rams have won five of their last six games and have covered in each of their last five. This is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, while New York is hanging on to whatever it is that’s happening with Tommy DeVito, his wacky agent and an abundance of chicken cutlets. So, there is a pretty sizable gap in where these two teams are right now. But the Giants have been somewhat competitive lately, so this might not be a straightforward game.
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-12, 47.5)
Sunday, 1:00 pm ET
The Cardinals are obviously not a good football team, but it’s still surprising to see the Eagles laying double digits here. Arizona head coach Jonathan Gannon should be very familiar with what Philadelphia wants to do, as he was the defensive coordinator there last season. That should help the Cardinals offense get ready for this game, and this Arizona group can be feisty sometimes. As for the total, the Over has hit in three of the last four Cardinals games. And there will be a lot of talent on the field in this game.
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears (-3, 38)
Sunday, 1:00 pm ET
The Bears have quietly been playing some of the best football in the NFC lately. You just haven’t heard much about it because of blown leads against the Lions and Browns. But Chicago has still won four of its last six games, and the team is 4-1-1 ATS in that span. That said, this line feels a little light for a home game. But the Falcons did earn a 29-10 win over the Indianapolis Colts last week, and the offense looked more competent with Taylor Heinicke under center. For total bettors, these two teams both run the ball a lot and have better defenses than you’d think.
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 46.5)
Sunday, 1:00 pm ET
This should be a fun game to watch, with both offenses being extremely explosive. The Dolphins have improved defensively this season, with the group now being respectable on that side of the ball. But this spread feels somewhat light considering how dominant Baltimore is on both sides of the ball. But it is hard to ignore what this game means to both teams. That makes it hard to decide which way to go. The one thing we can say for sure about this game is that it should be the best matchup of the week.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-11.5, 41)
Sunday, 1:00 pm ET
The Patriots have absolutely no reason to be winning games right now, as they are hurting themselves in the running for Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. But New England comes into this one after having won two of its last three and going 2-0-1 ATS in those games. Meanwhile, Buffalo has won three in a row and four of five, but the team just let a miserable Los Angeles Chargers team hang around last week. So, you really never know what you’re getting from these Bills, especially in a divisional game. The Pats were also supposed to be getting 12.5 before beating the Denver Broncos in Week 16.
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 44.5)
Sunday, 1:00 pm ET
The Colts were a nightmare against the Falcons last week, but they should have Michael Pittman Jr. back here. He has been cleared from a scary concussion he suffered, and Indianapolis was definitely missing him last week. Between that and home-field advantage, this spread definitely feels light for a solid Colts teams. It’s important to remember that Las Vegas got shutout at home by the Minnesota Vikings before scoring 63 against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-3.5, 42)
Sunday, 1:00 pm ET
This line seems a little light with the Texans having beaten the Titans on the road with Case Keenum under center. It certainly feels like CJ Stroud will be back for Houston this week, and that makes Houston a completely different team. The Texans also happen to be playing for the AFC South at this point, while the Titans front office probably wouldn’t mind a loss here. So, remember the motivation levels when playing this game.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 41)
Sunday, 4:05 pm ET
The Steelers were able to earn a big win over the Cincinnati Bengals last game, with Mason Rudolph turning in the best performance from a Pittsburgh quarterback all year. However, Seattle has won two games in a row and is now 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games. So, the Steelers will have their work cut out for them against a red-hot Seahawks squad. One thing to note is that Pittsburgh has gone Over in three consecutive games. But Seattle has allowed 17 points in back-to-back weeks, and the team hasn’t been playing great offensively.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 45)
Sunday, 4:25 pm ET
It’s almost a shame that we’re getting this matchup, as it could have been awesome if Joe Burrow wasn’t sidelined for the year. But it’s still hard to rule out Cincinnati finding a way to hang around here. The Bengals played on Saturday in Week 16, while the Chiefs played a Monday game. So there’s a small rest advantage working in Cincinnati’s favor here. The Bengals have also been a competitive team with Jake Browning under center. And Cincinnati is 20-7 ATS when playing teams with winning records over the last three seasons.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 38.5)
Sunday, 4:25 pm ET
The Chargers were getting 6 before putting up a fight against the Bills, combined with the Broncos losing to the Patriots. So, there has been a small adjustment here, but I’m interested in seeing how this plays out. Denver still has an outside shot at making the playoffs in the AFC, and this game shouldn’t mean all that much to Los Angeles. That’s hard to ignore here. However, it’s also hard to ignore the Broncos’ inability to blow teams out.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-2, 45.5)
Sunday, 8:20 pm ET
The Packers are oddly 1-8 ATS in road games against teams with losing records over the last three seasons. However, that’ll need to change if Green Bay wants to make the postseason. Neither one of these teams can really afford to lose this game, as it’ll set up an uncomfortable situation in Week 18. But it should be noted that Minnesota won 24-10 when these teams met at Lambeau Field on October 29. The Vikings have also figured things out offensively with Nick Mullens under center. He is prone to making mistakes, but the offense has shown signs of life over the last two weeks.
