We’ve hit that stretch of the NFL calendar when Saturdays officially join the party. The playoff picture is tightening, the stakes are higher, and for bettors, these matchups offer fresh angles to attack before Sunday’s chaos kicks in. The Week 17 Saturday slate brings two tilts worth circling — the Houston Texans take on the Los Angeles Chargers, while the Green Bay Packers face the Baltimore Ravens. Let’s dig into both and break down where the betting value lies heading into December 27.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of December 26, 2:30 pm ET; check out our DraftKings Betting Splits and Circa Betting Splits. See all of our Week 17 NFL Content.
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 39.5)
4:30 pm ET
After the Chargers’ win over the Cowboys in Week 16, combined with an unimpressive two-point win for the Texans over the Raiders, Los Angeles looks like a popular side in Week 17. Our VSiN betting splits pages show that the Chargers have gone from +1.5 on December 16 to -1.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook as the game inched a little closer. Also, Circa Sports has moved this one to Los Angeles -2, and that’s definitely a sharper book. However, I grabbed 2.5 with the Texans, so I’m somewhat undaunted by seeing the way this spread has moved. And I recognize that’s not available to everyone, but I would have been willing to play Houston on the moneyline. That said, I’d advise taking whatever you can get.
The mismatch between the Texans defensive line and the Chargers offensive line is just too big to ignore. Los Angeles is 31st in the NFL in Run Block Win Rate (69%) and 32nd in Pass Block Win Rate (53%). Well, that weak group up front is going to be going up against some absolute beasts. I’m just not sure the Chargers will be able to get a lot going on the ground in this game. I’m also worried about Los Angeles keeping Justin Herbert upright and healthy. This is a guy that has already dealt with injuries this season, and it genuinely feels like he’s fighting for his life every week. That’s scary heading into a matchup with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., two of PFF’s top-six pass rushers when looking at season-long grades. I also love Houston’s defensive backs, so I’m not sure a ton of separation will be created when looking at Los Angeles’ wide receiving corps.
Of course, there is a big question mark with the Texans offense. This group has looked rather miserable in spurts, and the Chargers have the league’s best defense since the midway point in the season. So, I can see why people might be hesitant to trust C.J. Stroud and Co. in this spot. However, Houston has performed like an above-average offense since its 0-3 start to 2025. I was as low as anyone on this unit at that point, but Stroud has orchestrated a top-10 passing offense when looking at Dropback EPA per play (0.142) since Week 4. And I’m just not willing to rule out the possibility of him delivering here. The offensive line has looked much better lately.
These two also happened to play in last year’s AFC Wild Card Round, when the Texans earned a 32-12 victory in a game that got really out of hand in the second and third quarters. Herbert threw four picks in that one, while Stroud threw for 282 yards in a somewhat efficient passing day. There’s certainly less between the two than there was last year, but I think the Houston defense can present some of the same problems for Herbert. And I see Stroud stepping up and playing a good game here.
The Texans also tend to level up when playing strong competition. Under DeMeco Ryans, they’re 10-6 straight-up and 11-5 against the spread when facing teams with winning percentages between 60% and 75%.
Pick: Texans +2.5 (-111 – 1.5 units)
Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 39.5)
8:00 pm ET
This game is pretty tough to call when looking at sides and totals. With Lamar Jackson doubtful, it’s likely this will be Tyler Huntley’s show. That hasn’t been an awful thing for Baltimore over the years, as Huntley is generally pretty comfortable pressing the buttons in this offense. He’s accurate enough as a passer when targeting pass-catchers on short-to-intermediate throws, and he’s also pretty dangerous as a runner. Sure, he doesn’t have the same overall wiggle as Jackson, but he’s fast and has a little more power. That said, offensive coordinator Todd Monken doesn’t have to change his playbook too much. However, if this offense is going to suffer any sort of drop-off, I’m not sure the defense can play well enough to overcome that. This Baltimore defense can be rather shaky. And Green Bay always seems to execute at a high level when playing at Lambeau — and I think that’ll remain the case with Malik Willis in for Jordan Love.
If I had to take something traditional here, I’d either lay the points with the Packers or play the Under on the total. It’s going to be cold and windy in Green Bay for this game, meaning we should see some smash-mouth football. That’s especially true with two quarterbacks that like to run — and can be questionable as downfield passers. However, the play I actually do feel comfortable making is the Over on Derrick Henry’s rushing attempts.
Jackson or no Jackson, I can’t imagine the Ravens going away from Henry in a cold-weather game that they absolutely must win. Henry always seems to play better at this point in the year, when his punishing style weighs on opposing defenses even more. And he’s coming off a game in which he rushed 18 times for 128 yards and two scores. I know the star rusher lost a fumble in that game, but John Harbaugh’s best path towards winning with a shaky quarterback situation is running the football, killing clock, and hoping to steal one late. Riding the legs of Henry should allow Baltimore to do that.
Henry has also had at least 17 rushing attempts in eight of the last 10 games, making it hard to envision him going Under now — even with Harbaugh being somewhat stubborn about his usage.
Pick: Henry Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-102)
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 17 games on our Pro Picks Page.
