Survivor
Whether you have a double dose of Survivor or not this week, major kudos for those who are still alive vying for the grand prize. The 10 remaining contestants in Circa Survivor will have to make two Week 17 picks and some of them are in a very, very difficult spot. Those who make it through the holiday will move on to the games on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday with hopes of staying alive.
If you’re in a contest with Circa Survivor-style rules, that’s what you’re tasked with this week. If not, there’s a decent chance that none of the heavy favorites for Thursday are available to you, but there are still some decent weekend options. It is well past crunch time in a contest such as this, but you should be extremely proud of what you’ve accomplished so far if this week’s article has any relevance to you whatsoever. It is one hell of an achievement.
Because I’ve been writing this with Circa Survivor rules all season, that doesn’t stop now, and I do have some options for the Christmas holiday that I’ve held back with this “entry”, though I am hardly running the table for the season.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks.
Christmas Teams to Consider
Lions (-7.5) over Vikings; Broncos (-13.5) over Chiefs
I highly doubt that anybody still standing in Survivor has these two options available. As you can see from the following tweet, none of the remaining 10 Circa Survivor entries have the Lions or Broncos.
The five who have Dallas remaining are in a very fortunate spot. The ones who do not have Dallas available have to rely on Josh Johnson, Max Brosmer, or Chris Oladokun. This is why I talked in the preseason and preached about all season making sure that you maintain as many holiday options as possible. Yes, you may lose long before Week 13 or Week 17, but if you do find yourself in those situations, you have to have options. While every entry has at least two Christmas options left, your Survivor life on the line with underdogs of more than a touchdown is a hard pill to swallow.
If I were still alive, I’d have Detroit and Dallas available this week, but you can obviously argue I could have used them sooner and worried about it later. Nobody would have expected KC to be in this position, but if you planned it out and still have the Chiefs, I’m sorry for the horrible luck.
Christmas Survivor Pick
Cowboys (-7) over Commanders
In this “entry”, I’ve already used the Broncos, but I did manage to be holding onto one of the three big favorites on the holiday. It is obviously fortunate it worked out in such a way that Jayden Daniels is out and Washington looks nothing like the team that made it to the NFC Championship Game last season, but that trendline was emerging as the season went along.
While Dallas isn’t playing for anything but pride, at least they still have a healthy Dak Prescott among others. The Cowboys would probably rather be home with their families, and so would all the stadium staff, but if you’re going to go on a business trip, you might as well try to win. Johnson has gone 5-of-9 for 43 yards and thrown a pick. The Commanders are one of two defenses that has allowed more yards per play than the Cowboys. They’re also one of two defenses that has forced a single-digit number in the turnover department.
Maybe the Lions, who I could also deploy here, are the safer pick with something to play for and I do still have them available. However, my goal is and has always been to try and provide relevant, applicable info. Given how 0/10 above have the Lions, it seems only fair that I suggest the Cowboys.
The Cowboys are 74% to win per PoolGenius.
Pick: Cowboys
Week 17 Survivor Teams to Consider
For those who don’t have to worry about Christmas and don’t have any of Thursday’s big favorites, I’ll keep the same mantra in mind of trying to suggest relevant, available teams.
Seahawks (-7) over Panthers, Patriots (-13.5) over Jets, Rams (-8) over Falcons, Jaguars (-6) over Colts
Three big road favorites, all probably teams that you have already used. They are all teams that I have used to this point and many entries probably look the same way. In terms of the Survivor availability beyond the Christmas games, four entries have the Patriots, while zero have the Rams and Seahawks.
Holding the Patriots right now against Brady Cook and whatever the Jets are is quite a gift. Of the five that have the Cowboys available, only one has the Patriots. That’s quite a phenomenal spot to be in.
Another one with the Cowboys for Thursday has the Jaguars for Sunday. That’s not a bad spot to be in either, though obviously not as close to the catbird’s seat as having New England. For that players holding the Jaguars, take them now or wait until next week at home against Tennessee. Another dicey one because a Houston loss to the Chargers on Saturday means that the Jaguars can lock up the AFC South this week and won’t need to play people next week.
Steelers (-3) over Browns
Are you willing to put a lot of money at risk by backing Pittsburgh at a short number on the road in Cleveland? This is the Browns’ Super Bowl, at least until April when they take the guy that they hope is the QB of the future. I know people are overexaggerating every time Shedeur Sanders farts, but the guy has not played very well, has no offensive line in front of him, no worthwhile wide receivers, and now the team’s best running back won’t be running for several months.
However, this is pretty dicey. Baltimore plays on Saturday. If the Ravens lose to the Packers, Pittsburgh doesn’t really have to play anybody this week. And you won’t know that before putting in your pick because everything locks before the first game on Saturday. How will Mike Tomlin handle things with a QB on the wrong side of 40? Is this a preseason game? Are you comfortable backing Pittsburgh in a game where Mason Rudolph might play 75% of it?
It might be Christmas, but this is Halloween-scary.
Even scarier yet…can I interest you in the 2-13 Raiders over the 2-13 Giants?
The Steelers are 59% to win per PoolGenius.
Buccaneers (-5.5) over Dolphins
So, here’s the most interesting one on the board to me. There are eight entries that have the Buccaneers left, though we’ll likely bid adieu to five entries on Christmas. Of the five that still hold Dallas, three of them still have the Buccaneers.
Frankly, we have seen zero indication that Tampa Bay is worth trusting of late. They’ve lost three in a row, six of seven, and Baker Mayfield has been AWFUL of late. However, the Bucs are drawing Quinn Ewers here and Miami’s give-a-bleep level is probably dwindling. They got pummeled 45-21 by the Bengals at home last week on the heels of losing 28-15 to the Steelers on the road two weeks ago.
That said, I’d rather take them this week on the road at Miami than next week at home against Carolina, a team that they just lost to last week. If that’s your option, you have a choice to make.
The Bucs are 69% to win per PoolGenius.
Week 17 NFL Survivor Pick
Bengals (-7) over Cardinals
The dreaded Bengals, who have irreparably damaged a lot of Survivor entries over the last two seasons. All things are aligned here for them to get a win. Arizona has lost seven in a row. Joe Burrow is still fielding questions about his commitment to football and he answered them last week with four touchdowns and 45 points. It is actually supposed to be 58 in Cincinnati on Sunday with a chance of rain, but it’s still a long trip for a Cardinals team to have a 10 a.m. body clock kickoff with absolutely nothing on the line.
You also probably still have Cincinnati at your disposal thanks to the Burrow injury. Eight of the 10 remaining Survivors entering this week do. I think it’s a fair pick to make and they’re also still on my list of available teams.
The Bengals are 74% to win per PoolGenius.
Pick: Bengals
Teams Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Bills, Packers, Patriots, Falcons, Rams, Panthers, Steelers, 49ers, Ravens, Chargers, Buccaneers, Eagles, Saints
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