NFL Week 18 Best Bets and Props from Mike Somich:

Here are my NFL Week 18 best bets and props:

 

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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5; 48.5)

Week 18 is a tough week for sides and totals. This would be an over at 48 for me, but with the over money that came in today, Friday, I am going to wait to see if I can get a better number over the weekend.

With that being said, let’s look to a team prop here that I love. When you look in the rushing props, toward the bottom, you will find a team total rush yards. Currently, the Falcons are sitting at 150.5 rush yards.

Over the last three weeks, Carolina has given up an average of 206 yards on the ground. This is a Falcons team that should be in a positive game state to run the football. You could look at Robinson’s prop alone, but it’s in the 90s, and I do believe you can get a real contribution here from Allgeier, especially if you see an Atlanta team that is up two scores and needs help from Tampa Bay to make the playoffs.

I like over 2.5 combined rushing touchdowns in this game as well, that is at +133, but let’s go with Atlanta over rush yards as the best bets in this game.

NFL Week 18 Bet: Atlanta Falcons Over 150.5 Rush Yards

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-14; 43.5)

The Bucs need to win and they are in here. This is a Saints team that have rolled over late in the season and now need to head on the road and take on an offense that is absolutely cooking.

We’ve seen this line bounce all over the place with the possibility of New Orleans getting back some key pieces, but it looks like we won’t see Carr or Kamara here. While the focus has been on the offense with this Bucs team, the defense has been stepping up in recent weeks. They have allowed less than 60 yards per game on the ground over the last four games, which is an issue for the Saints, who need to run the football to be effective on offense.

This has all the feel of a pick-your-score game for the Bucs, who should be able to score at will. If you can find a Bucs -9.5 1st half, I like that as well, but I am not afraid to lay a big number here with Tampa.

NFL Week 18 Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -14

Prop Plays

George Pickens 30+ Yard Longest Reception +123
Since Russell “Moonball” Wilson became the starter in Pittsburgh, the Pickens Over longest receptions has been an ATM. He has gone Over in every Wilson start this season and has had a reception over 30 yards in eight straight games. This week’s matchup versus the Bengals is a juicy one with a weak secondary that loves to allow big passing plays. No reason to back off Pickens this week.

Jayden Daniels Over 47.5 Rush Yards
Daniels showed how valuable his legs can be when healthy last Sunday Night. The key there is healthy, which he has been since coming off the bye. He’s gone over his total in three straight games and now gets a Dallas D that gives up the third-most rushing yards to QBs while playing a light run-QB schedule. Daniels went for 74 on the ground in the first meeting, Lamar Jackson rushed for 87 yards vs Dallas, and Hurts added another 56. Even Mayfield and Purdy went for 40+ against this defense. Let’s take the over.

Other Plays
Pat Freiermuth Over 35.5 Rec Yards
Brian Thomas Jr. Over 79.5 Rec Yards

For more NFL Week 18 best bets, visit the NFL Week 18 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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