NFL Week 18 Best Bets from Will Hill:

Here are my NFL Week 18 best bets:

 

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Minnesota Vikings +2.5 at Detroit Lions

I’m going with the Vikings here because I think the Lions defense is by far the worst of the four units among either offense or defense in this matchup. The Lions were a force to be reckoned with mid-season, but they are not in that dominant form currently. Last week, they gave up about 8 yards per play to the 49ers, a week after giving up 6.5 yards per play to the Bears. The prior two games, they allowed a combined 79 points to the Bills and Packers. In a game with a total this high (56.5), the Under on punts (especially with two aggressive coaches) and the Under on shortest touchdown (usually lined at 1.5) are good plays. With so many expected touchdowns, we’re bound to get a pass interference in the end zone or just one short touchdown to cash that bet. So, keep an eye out for those markets, but I’m taking the 2.5 here. 

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Minnesota Vikings +2.5

Cleveland Browns Team Total Under 10.5 

The Browns are on their fourth starting quarterback this year, as they turn to Bailey Zappe. The Ravens are playing for a division title, and have extra rest, having not played since Christmas. In that Christmas game, the Ravens defense dominated, allowing under four yards per play, just 10 first downs and zero points—even with a big lead where we often see trailing teams get cheap points and chunks of yards in garbage time. As for the Browns, in the two games since Jameis Winston got hurt, they have put up a combined nine points and have failed to resemble an NFL offense. Not much margin for error here at 10.5, but I’ll still go under, considering what a mismatch this is. 

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Cleveland Browns Team Total Under 10.5 (-135 FanDuel)

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys +6

The Commanders clinched a playoff spot last Sunday, winning in dramatic fashion against the Falcons. Now, they head to Dallas to take on the Cowboys, where only seeding is at stake. A young team that is excited to be in the playoffs and is ahead of schedule, are they really motivated by or worried about who they play in Round 1? I’m not sure, and even so, holes can be poked into their recent success. The Falcons melted down and showed an inability to manage the clock Sunday night, allowing OT to even take place. In prior weeks, the Commanders beat the Eagles when Jalen Hurts left the game with a big lead and beat backup Kenny Pickett. They also needed to survive a 2-point conversion attempt to win by 1 over the Saints and Spencer Rattler in the game before that. The Cowboys have played hard, and mostly well, the last six weeks despite being eliminated. I’ll take the 6 here. 

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Dallas Cowboys +6

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