NFL Week 18:

Lookahead markets were not posted for Week 18, as the sportsbooks didn’t want to put themselves at any unnecessary risk. There will be a ton of speculation throughout the week as to who will play and who won’t. Playoff teams have bigger things to worry about on the horizon. Bad teams have no incentive to win. We do have some playoff and seeding battles, but coaches may not be too worried about the seed line that they are on.

With all of those variables in play, the books kept a tight lid on their Week 18 numbers. Now that all the games have been played and the scenarios are set, we have some numbers to sink our teeth into. Remember – there are no Thursday or Monday games this week, so it’s all about the weekend.

 

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Here is the Week 18 NFL Odds Report:

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-17.5, 42.5)

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

The Browns and Ravens begin Week 18 with one of the biggest lines of the season. The concern here is that the Ravens could get up big and end up sitting people in the second half, as they hold the tiebreakers over the Steelers and simply need to win. The Browns failed to score a TD against the Dolphins last week at home and, while weather was a factor, are likely to turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson again. This line opened 17.5 and has stayed there, though that’s a big number with a low total and a realistic possibility of a Josh Johnson-led second half.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 48.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

A fascinating game here. The Bengals need a win and a whole lot of help to make the playoffs. The Steelers will likely know by this point that they cannot win the AFC North. However, seeding still matters, as being the No. 5 seed means playing the Texans instead of playing the Ravens. Obviously Pittsburgh will feel pretty comfortable playing Baltimore given the head-to-head success in the Lamar Jackson era, but the Steelers just got trounced by the Ravens and got badly outgained on a per-play basis in the game they won earlier this year. Playing the Texans has to be a preferred outcome, so they’ll be invested with or without the division in play.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5, 47.5)

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-14, 44)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

I’ll group these together with the same start time and the same implications. The Buccaneers need a win to lock up the NFC South. The Falcons need a Saints win and a win of their own. With the loss on MNF, the Falcons suffered a huge setback, as they won both head-to-head meetings over the Bucs. Both teams are heavily favored with motivation, but live betting could be a thing if the Bucs get out ahead early, as the Falcons could fold the tent pretty quickly. Tampa Bay has already grown a little as a favorite at some shops, going from -13 to -14.

Washington Commanders (-3, 45.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-9, 41)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

This is a battle for seeding. The Commanders are currently the No. 6 seed and the Packers are No. 7 based on the conference win percentage tiebreaker, as they did not play head-to-head. The difference between playing the Rams and playing the Eagles is pretty significant, so there will be some incentive here for the Commanders off that emotional Sunday Night Football win. At the same time, the Packers are the much larger favorite and credit the Cowboys for really playing tough late in the season. 

We also have to make sure that teams are worried about the seed lines based on what the coaches say throughout the week. There is definitely no guarantee that Matt LaFleur or Dan Quinn will put prized QBs at risk.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-9, 39)

Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 41.5) at New York Jets

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

The No. 7 seed in the AFC is on the line here. Obviously Patrick Mahomes and many stars for Kansas City are not expected to play, leaving the Broncos a massive favorite against a skeleton crew for the Chiefs. The Dolphins are a road favorite heading up to the Meadowlands, but may have to play without Tua Tagovailoa. Head coach Mike McDaniel did not sound super optimistic about his chances of playing. The Broncos hold all the cards here. If they win, they are in. We’ll already know the Cincinnati result from Saturday to see if they are still alive.

These lines will be very fluid throughout the week based on the news of who’s in and who’s out, so do your best to try and keep up.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3, 52.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Pretty simple here. The winner is the NFC North champion and has a bye during Wild Card Weekend. The loser goes on the road to play either the Buccaneers or the Falcons. It’s nice to have a straightforward handicap in Week 18 and not worry about motivation, who’s in and who’s out, or anything like that. That’s precisely what this game is. There are some 2.5s with juice in the market and other shops are 3 with reduced juice, which is probably where this line will be content to sit.

Other Games

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-4.5, 36.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Backups aplenty here for the Texans, as they host a home game no matter what as the AFC South champion. I have to say – the depth for Houston and a somewhat proven starter in Davis Mills has me thinking this line could come down a bit. None of the stars on either side will play for Houston and the wide receiver room has been ravaged by injuries, but this is a roster that has really built up a nice amount of depth in my opinion.

Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 40.5) at New England Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Obviously, as the line implies, Josh Allen will not play in this one. Mitchell Trubisky will get the call, along with several backups on each side of the ball. But, unlike the situation that we see with Houston and others, the Bills are still favored in this one. That says a lot about where the Patriots are right now. It wouldn’t be a total shocker to see this line get to 3, as Trubisky is at least something of a known commodity playing in a better system. The Patriots are also playing for the No. 1 pick.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 38)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

I think we’re going to see Tanner McKee here after Kenny Pickett left last week’s game with injuries to his midsection. He was already wearing a flak jacket going into the game and McKee had to replace him after he aggravated some rib injuries. I would fully expect the Eagles to err on the side of caution and want Pickett as protected as possible given the concussion to Jalen Hurts and his penchant for running the football. That’ll likely drive this line down a little more, especially after the Giants showed some heart last week.

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