Survivor
The final week of the NFL regular season has arrived! For those who are still alive in Survivor contests, a tip of the cap to you. It is one of the hardest and most excruciating contests out there between the waiting and all of the discussion to have with yourself or with your partners. Obviously, it can also be one of the most rewarding.
I’ve tried to stick with relevant information each and every week this season. Even though this article “entry” didn’t make it to the finish line, or make as deep of a run as I would have liked, hopefully you learned some things to carry over into next season and future seasons. That battle between attempting to go 1-0 every week and 18-0 overall really does make it a challenge, but you plan ahead, keep as many options open as possible, and hope that it works out in your favor.
For example, last week, there were Circa Survivor entries forced into using the Vikings on Christmas and they pulled off a big upset against the Lions. It was a very tough situation to be in this late into the game, but Minnesota did it. Of course, those entries also cut into potential profits by hedging what they could on the Lions. The beauty and the beast of making it this late into the event.
With one week left, the pickings are really slim and we have teams that are sitting starters and others who may only play their starters for a little while. We have some sizable favorites as well, at least if you still have any of those available. I’m only using teams that I have available and also trying to consider who the remaining Circa Survivor entries have available as a guide.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up.
Week 18 Survivor Teams to Consider
Broncos (-12.5) over Chargers; Texans (-10.5) over Colts; Patriots (-10.5) over Dolphins; Bengals (-7.5) over Browns
Any favorite over a touchdown is worthy of a look in Survivor. In looking at the remaining Circa Survivor entries, none of the six have the Texans, one has the Patriots, and two have the Bengals.
For this article “entry”, I’ve used all four of them, with the Broncos in Week 1 and Bengals coming in last week against the Cardinals. If you’ve somehow managed to hold the Texans through all of this, they have the AFC South title to play for, but they may sit some guys depending on how the Jaguars-Titans game is going.
The Patriots are playing for the No. 1 seed, but the Broncos have the tiebreaker edge, so that’s another game where New England will be monitoring what is happening. They won’t put anybody at risk if they don’t have to and the Broncos are a massive favorite against Trey Lance and a bunch of reserves.
But, the Bengals have nothing happening after this week. Surely Joe Burrow and others would like to end what has been a wasted season on a high note and maybe have something to build on heading into next season. The Browns probably won their Super Bowl last week, but we have seen them play really hard for Kevin Stefanski late in the season. I’m not sure if it’ll save his job and the offensive line is still a disaster, so Cincinnati is not a bad look this week at all.
In order per PoolGenius – Broncos (86%), Patriots (82%), Texans (81%), Bengals (74%)
Vikings (-7.5) over Packers
With Green Bay locked into the No. 7 seed, nobody of consequence will see the field in this game if Matt LaFleur can help it. Green Bay signed Desmond Ridder to the practice squad, so I feel like we’re going to see Clayton Tune with both Jordan Love and Malik Willis inactive. It only makes sense, with Love coming back from a concussion and Willis with a shoulder ailment.
It wasn’t the season that Kevin O’Connell wanted in Minneapolis, but his team still has the chance to finish with a winning record at 9-8. They’ve won four in a row. Only teams that don’t make the playoffs and the team that wins the Super Bowl finish their respective seasons with a win and the Vikings can make it five in a row to end the year. That seems like a good goal to play for, even if it isn’t the goal that Minnesota wanted to achieve.
Three of the six remaining Circa Survivors have the Vikings, so they’re definitely a team to think about and maybe the team that I should have picked here, but I have a better option available for the purposes of the article and it’s not a shutout on the team availability matrix.
The Vikings are 77% to win per PoolGenius.
Week 18 NFL Survivor Pick
Jaguars (-12.5) over Titans
Maybe it’s a little bit unfair to take this one, but, I, too, would like to end the season with a win. One of the six remaining Survivor entries has the Jags. If you’re still alive, you probably don’t have them, but you probably do have one of the above teams. If not, you’ll have to take more of a risk, but it is an example of trying to prepare for the later weeks of the contest if you are able to get there.
There have been opportunities to take Jacksonville, but as the number of available teams has dwindled, my plan all along was to suggest saving them for this point. It was a little bit risky, as the Texans could have faded a little bit and this game may not have mattered to Liam Coen’s team. But, it does, and here we are.
The Jaguars are 88% to win per PoolGenius and that’s the highest win probability on the board.
Pick: Jaguars
Teams Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Bills, Packers, Patriots, Falcons, Rams, Panthers, Steelers, 49ers, Ravens, Chargers, Buccaneers, Eagles, Saints, Cowboys, Bengals
Follow the link for the rest of our NFL Week 18 content.
