NFL Week 2 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index:

What a Week 1! I gave out seven total bets on my various platforms and went 6-1 on those plays, including 3-1 in my four VSiN article bets (posted every Tuesday and Friday). The only loss was Ravens +3, which could be argued lost by a toenail, literally. Nonetheless, betting is a “what have you done for me lately?” business so we have to have short memories from week to week. 

There were several plays I liked upon openers being released for Week 2, and there’s still plenty of value to be had after initial line moves. I’ll be back Friday to break down some of the more impactful line moves and how those create new opportunities for best bets. 

 

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Here are my early Week 2 bets:

Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) vs New Orleans Saints, O/U 45.5

Talk about emphatic wins in week 1! Both of these teams put the hammer down on the Browns and Panthers, combining for 80 total points and giving up just 27. Obviously when I bet, TSI is my driving force, but I love the games where my gut says one thing and then TSI confirms it with data. That’s the case here. This game screams “Over” to me, and TSI backs that up with a projection of Cowboys -4.5 and a total of 53.5. 

I would’ve loved to have been able to give this out at 45 (key number), but it’s still definitely a bet at 45.5. Even my most conservative of formulas says 51 points in this game, so I expect fireworks from two of the top five teams in points per play after Week 1. 

Bet: Over 45.5 (Play to 47.5)

New England Patriots (+3.5) vs Seattle Seahawks

The Patriots single-handedly eliminated a huge portion of Circa Survivor contest participants on Sunday as they defeated the Cincinnati Bengals in surprising fashion. Seattle, meanwhile, failed to cover against the Bo Nix-led Broncos but did get the win in Week 1. The market has moved Seattle’s way here, likely anticipating regression to last year by New England, but TSI isn’t so sure about that, projecting the Pats as 0.5-point favorites, and one of my formulas projecting as high as Patriots -6.5, while all of the data I use is aligned that New England should cover, if not win outright. 

New England played perfect complimentary football against Cincinnati, taking care of the ball (0 turnovers), controlling the clock (34 minutes TOP), and pounding the rock (170 rushing yards to just 120 passing). Seattle won more of a sloppy (five total turnovers), high-possession (129 plays) game against Denver. I think New England can “ugly” this game up and control the clock in an Iowa-esque fashion against a high-flying Seahawks (no pun intended) team. 

Playing +3.5 at (-130) or better is a better play than +3 (-110), mathematically. (see note)

Bet: Patriots +3.5 (-130 or better)

Note: understanding pricing, especially in the NFL, is imperative. Read my “when to buy points in the NFL” article for the full breakdown of pricing, but here is a quick chart to demonstrate this game. Getting +3 (-125) is better than getting +2.5 (-110), and getting +3.5, even at -140, would be better than them both. Shop around and always find the best price.

NumberPrice Equivalency
2.5-110
3-126
3.5-141

For more NFL Week 2 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 2 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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