Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 2 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 2 best bets:
Minnesota Vikings +5 at Chicago Bears
The Bears are off the highest Week 1 scoring performance in NFL history with 59 points. On the other hand, they allowed 37 at Carolina, and with 96 total points, it was the highest-scoring Week 1 game ever.
The Vikings were down 22-10 late in the third quarter before scoring 29 unanswered to knock off Green Bay, 39-22. Minnesota was outgained 419-239 but forced two turnovers and sacked Jordan Love four times. In fact, Love was pressured on 54.3% of his dropbacks last week, the highest mark for any QB in the NFL.
Minnesota played the highest Cover 2 rate in the league during Week 1 (31%), and for all of his improvements, Caleb Williams has struggled against that defensive look by averaging only 5.0 ypa, 56% completions, and a 64.5 passer rating, all of which ranked at or near the bottom of the NFL last season.
While the Vikings’ offensive numbers weren’t impressive last week, Carson Wentz replaced a concussed Kyler Murray, who will miss this week, and did what Vikings QBs struggled to do last season: get the ball to Justin Jefferson! JJ had eight catches for 92 yards and a TD last week.
Since 2013, backup QBs have gone 19-9 ATS in Weeks 1 and 2. The market, which has to be super high on the Bears after last week’s offensive explosion, did not really react to the news, and actually seems to trust Wentz in this spot over Murray.
Denver Broncos -145 ML vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Denver was the most popular play in the Circa Million and other contests last week, but the Broncos laid an egg on Monday Night Football as the Chiefs held them to just 176 yards and 10 points. Kansas City also outrushed them 220-61. The Broncos went 2-for-12 on third downs while giving up four sacks and having Bo Nix commit two turnovers.
Jacksonville dominated Cleveland and led the Browns 31-0 before parking the bus midway through the third quarter en route to a 34-10 victory.
All week long, the discussion has been about Jacksonville potentially being the “sleeper” in the AFC, while in Denver, the speculation has already started about whether Sean Payton will take back playcalling duties from offensive coordinator Davis Webb.
After going 14-3 last season and making the AFC Championship Game, the Broncos were certainly prime for some regression after going 10-3 in games decided by seven points or less.
Jacksonville also beat Denver in Mile High last year to end the Broncos’ 11-game win streak.
This is a sell-high spot for the Jaguars, who get a bit inflated off beating arguably the worst team in the NFL.
Los Angeles Rams -7 vs. New York Giants
The consensus Super Bowl favorite Rams were just another shrimp on the barbie in Australia and returned to Los Angeles after a 14-hour flight with a convincing 27-7 loss to the 49ers.
On the other side, the John Harbaugh era got off to a good start for the G-Men as they controlled the ball for nearly 37 minutes and knocked off Dallas on Sunday Night Football, 28-20.
This has historically been a very good spot for Sean McVay, as he is 33-20-3 ATS off a loss in his career. To be fair, John Harbaugh has always flourished as a road underdog (46-28-4 ATS).
While new acquisition Myles Garrett went on the IR this week, what is old is new again in Los Angeles as Aaron Donald returns to make his debut on Monday Night three years removed from retirement. The future HOFer’s return should be an extra boost to the Rams just from a psychological standpoint, let alone any production that he can provide.
Much was made of the Rams’ decision to travel late to Australia, but for this one, they have a massive rest advantage, which certainly should help a veteran team.
Expect the Rams’ rush defense, which allowed 174 yards on 30 carries to San Francisco, to be much stiffer in the home opener.
TEASER OF THE WEEK
Ravens -2.5/Falcons +8.5
BEST OF THE REST
Colts +6.5 -105 at Chiefs
Cardinals +4 vs. Seahawks
Bengals/Texans UNDER 45.5
Saints/Ravens UNDER 46.5
For more NFL Week 2 best bets, visit the NFL Week 2 hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
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