MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, September 21.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:35 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Trey Yesavage gets the start for the Blue Jays, pitching for the first time since August 4. He was having command issues even before going on the injured list, posting a 3.63 ERA with 8.7 strikeouts and 4.4 walks per nine innings. Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz has pitched better than his 4.11 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 3.61 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings allowed and faces a Blue Jays lineup that is 29th in scoring with less than 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline -110 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -115 and Total 8.2
6:40 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers
Nationals starting pitcher DJ Herz is back at the big league level for the first time since 2024, when he owned a 4.16 ERA in 19 starts with 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He looked solid at the minor league level in 10 starts this season with a 3.16 ERA, but is supported by a bullpen that is 29th in ERA at 5.04. The Tigers are giving River Ryan the start, who was part of the package the Los Angeles Dodgers sent in the Tarik Skubal trade. For Ryan, it will be his first MLB start since 2024. He posted a 1.33 ERA in his four starts that season, but has had an injury-riddled career and posted a 4.39 ERA at the minor league level this season. He now faces a Nationals lineup that is third in scoring with over 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals vs. Tigers Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.8
9:45 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants
Twins starting pitcher Zebby Matthews has seen his swing-and-miss stuff dip to 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings with a 4.74 ERA this season, but benefits from the Giants lineup dealing with injuries to nearly their entire lineup. Giants starting pitcher Blade Tidwell has a 4.56 ERA with 7.1 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings. The Twins are missing Byron Buxton from a lineup that is 10th in scoring this season with nearly 4.6 runs per game, and both bullpens have been pretty average since July 1, with the Giants 16th in ERA at 4.08 while the Twins are 18th at 4.16.
Pick: Twins vs. Giants Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7
