NFL Week 2 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans:
Here are my NFL Week 2 best bets.
Buffalo at NY Jets (+6.5)
On the first Sunday of the NFL season, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills pulled off the most improbable comeback we will probably see all season. It will be an unforgettable game, especially for the bettors who ended up on the losing end.
For those who remember NFL telecasts in the 1980s, ALCOA’s “Fantastic Finishes” was a popular one-minute feature that aired during the two-minute warning of TV games and it highlighted the league’s most dramatic comebacks. The most memorable was “The Immaculate Reception” playoff game between the Steelers and Raiders from 1972.
Allen did not make a single, signature play to seal the Bills’ 41-40 victory over Baltimore last week. He made several big plays, along with the Buffalo defense. With Ravens holding a 15-point lead and the ball with just over eight minutes to play, probability models showed Baltimore had a 99% chance of winning. The rest is history. (A historical note: A week after “The Immaculate Reception” win, the Steelers lost the AFC title game to the undefeated Miami Dolphins.)
After a miracle win and now hitting the road as favorites, the Bills are in a classic bet-against spot this week in a situational handicapping sense. Buffalo also has a personnel problem in Sunday’s game against the New York Jets. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who had six tackles, a sack and forced a critical fumble by Ravens running back Derrick Henry, has been ruled out with an ankle injury. The Bills’ run defense is weakened without Oliver, and the Jets totaled 182 rushing yards in Week 1.
Of course, hours before the Bills’ comeback, the Jets pulled off the opposite by snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, blowing a late lead in a 34-32 loss to the Steelers.
It would be no surprise if Allen, who passed for 394 yards and two touchdowns and ran for two touchdowns against Baltimore, has another impressive performance. Jets coach Aaron Glenn was Detroit’s defensive coordinator last season when Allen and the Bills dropped 48 points on the Lions.
Glenn’s defense was respectable last week, when New York outgained Pittsburgh 394-271, and the Jets limited the Steelers to 2.7 yards per carry on 20 rushing attempts. Jets quarterback Justin Fields played well while accounting for three touchdowns, Breece Hall rushed for 107 yards and Garrett Wilson made seven receptions for 95 yards and a touchdown.
I bet the Jets +7 early in the week, and the betting market has been moving with action showing on the home underdog. Circa Sports has dropped the line to 5.5, but DraftKings still shows 6.5.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: New York Jets +6.5
The Ravens’ stunning collapse in Buffalo still stings. Green Bay covered as the only other favorite on my card in Week 1. I’m going with all ‘dogs this week, so here are five more plays:
Cleveland at Baltimore (-12)
For many gamblers, this is the most anticipated game of Week 2. In the Circa Survivor contest, Baltimore will be the consensus top pick to win straight up. The Ravens, still the No. 1 power-rated team in the league by a majority of handicappers, are expected to rebound from the debacle in Buffalo. Maybe the Browns should not be dismissed so easily. Cleveland’s defense shut down Joe Burrow last week as the Bengals were outgained 327-141. The Browns blew it but did cover in a 17-16 loss, so this could be a similar result.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +12
New York Giants at Dallas (-5.5)
I’m a believer in Giants coach Brian Daboll, but he needs to fix his offense and it’s unlikely to be a quick fix with Russell Wilson at quarterback. Is rookie Jaxson Dart the solution? New York’s offensive line is part of the problem. Wilson is aware this could be his last shot as the starter and he’s catching a break because Dallas cornerback DaRon Bland is out with a foot injury. I suspect the Giants are better than they looked in the 21-6 loss at Washington and will show up for this divisional rivalry. New York’s defensive front, which sacked Jayden Daniels three times, is legit and will pressure quarterback Dak Prescott. The Cowboys don’t have much of a ground attack to exploit a Giants defense that surrendered 220 rushing yards to the Commanders.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: New York Giants +5.5
Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) at Tennessee
Tennessee’s strong defensive front, anchored by tackle Jeffery Simmons, helped force four turnovers in a loss at Denver. This is a tricky spot for the road favorite. Matthew Stafford had some trouble sustaining drives last week and now the Rams are expected to be without injured starting guards Steve Avila and Kevin Dotson. The Titans are solid defensively, but an offense that produced only 133 total yards was the issue as rookie quarterback Cam Ward struggled on the road against the Broncos’ elite defense. Ward will show progress this week, but Tennessee finished 2-15 ATS last season, so I’m not full of confidence in this play.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Tennessee Titans +5.5
Philadelphia (-1.5) at Kansas City
I was on Philadelphia in the Super Bowl blowout, but I’ll switch sides here with Kansas City desperate to change the storyline and avoid the dreaded 0-2 start. The Eagles’ pass defense was weak when they were fortunate to beat the Cowboys on opening night. This will be the 69th career home start for Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and only the second time he will be the underdog. A motivated Mahomes will probably find a way to win.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs +1.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Las Vegas
As situational spots go, the Bills and Chargers are in the toughest ones this week. The Chargers return from Brazil, where they finally got over the hump by beating the Chiefs, but this is a role reversal as they flip to road favorites. If the Raiders’ win at New England was any sign of what’s to come, there is some promise with the Pete Carroll-Geno Smith combo. Carroll’s defense produced four sacks, and Smith passed for 362 yards on a day when rookie running back Ashton Jeanty didn’t get much accomplished. I lean Under 46.5, yet prefer to play the live home ‘dog on Monday night in Las Vegas.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders +3.5
Last week: 2-3 against the spread
Season: 2-3
For more NFL Week 2 best bets, visit the NFL Week 2 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
