NFL Week 2 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I shared my frustration with how the football season has opened up for me enough in my College Football Best Bets column earlier this week, so I’m not going to rehash. Instead, I will push ahead with a record three games under .500 and break down this week’s NFL action. There are some very intriguing games, starting with a clash between NFC powers on Thursday night and winding up with a very nice MNF doubleheader, including a battle for the early lead in the AFC West. That game doesn’t include you know who. Let’s dig right into the Week 2 VSiN NFL Analytics Report and get after it.
Thursday, September 11, 2025
Washington at Green Bay
When the Commanders left off the 2024 season, they were coming off a three-game playoff run in which they scored 91 points and allowed 106. That is an average total point production of 65.7 PPG. This past week, somehow, they were involved in a game that produced just 27 points. That leads to an interesting betting system in place for TNF: Week 2 teams that went Under their Week 1 total by at least 17 points are 27-17 Over (61.4%) the total since 2008 (+9.3 units, ROI: 21.1%, Grade 56). In my opinion, that game, and Washington’s overall strategy was changed dramatically by the Giants’ inability to do anything offensively. Still, only 53% of bettors at DK are looking for a higher scoring game with Green Bay. This is strange considering the talent level on both offenses. Even still, it is a majority, and we have learned this from one of my DK Betting Splits systems: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)!
On the other sideline, the Packers got out quickly offensively against the Lions, only to slow it down when Detroit played conservatively. I don’t think QB Jordan Love & Co. will be able to do that with QB Jayden Daniels on the other sideline. As it is, Love is on 13-5 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win, and Washington is 27-10 Over the total when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2011. I think this game has two of the league’s best offenses going. Let’s call it 30-27 Packers..
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: I’ll go Over 48.5 in Green Bay-Washington
Sunday, September 14, 2025
New England at Miami
Is Miami really as bad as it looked on Sunday in Indianapolis, or did the game simply get away early and then snowball? We will find out this week in a home game versus New England, who is also 1-0, but not being buried yet like the Dolphins. In fact, bettors at DraftKings are backing the visitors in both handle and bets. That said, in NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%).
Additionally, upon reviewing the dismal performance by head coach Mike McDaniel’s team, there may be a bit of overreaction at play: Teams that lost by double digits in Week 1 have responded by going 50-29-3 ATS (63.3%) in Week 2 over the last 13 seasons. This has also been a very good matchup for Miami, as it is 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in the last nine versus divisional foe New England (also 9-2 ATS in the last 11 when hosting NE). It’s also been a good situational spot for the Fins: 1) Miami is on a 33-17 SU and 32-17 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019 2) Miami’s Tua Tagovalioa is 25-8 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%) in home games.
Of course, heading into last week, there were pretty high expectations with the Patriots and new head coach Mike Vrabel. Perhaps misguided, as retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2015, in Weeks #1-#10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 99-132 ATS (42.9%). Making matters worse, there seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these retread head coaches. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 135-173 ATS (43.8%) since 2015. I think everyone could be getting down on the wrong team.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: I’ll lay the short number (-1.5) with Miami at home
Jacksonville at Cincinnati
Most bettors are considering the atrocious second-half offensive performance of the Bengals this past Sunday in Cleveland as a fluke, as at last check 71% of the handle at DraftKings is on the Over for the total in their upcoming game with Jacksonville. Still, DK has dropped the total from 49.5 to 48.5. I have called this one the Over trap, when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week. This majority group has lost big, going just 70-92 (43.2%) over the past three seasons. Cincy was fortunate to beat the Browns, surviving 17-16. That said, teams that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 41-21-1 Under (66.1%) the total in Week 2 since 2005 (+16.8 units, ROI: 27.1%, Grade 65).
The Jaguars are off a comfortable home win over Carolina, which also sets them up in a particularly trendy under spot: Teams that beat their week 1 point spread by 8 points or more in non-conference games are 22-11-3 Under (66.7%) the total in Week 2 since 2002 (+9.9 units, ROI: 30%, Grade 64). At this point, I think Jacksonville’s defense might actually be good, while I have real concerns about the Bengals’ offense.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: I’ll go Under 48.5 in Cincinnati-Jacksonville
New York Giants at Dallas
One thing I’ve learned in NFL betting is that typically, things aren’t nearly ever as bad as they might look in a given week. Take the Giants, for example. Last week, it was obvious that they didn’t formulate a good offensive plan against Washington and couldn’t protect their QB. They scored only six points. It was eerily similar to last year when they lost 28-8 in the opener at home versus Minnesota. What did they do the next week? Well, they lost, but only by a 21-18 score at Washington, a team that would go on to win 12 games. This week, they will try to respond at Dallas. Do they have to worry about the QB pressure like they did last week? Likely not. Did you see the Cowboys and their inability to pressure Jalen Hurts? Most bettors at DK don’t share my sentiment here, with the highest % of handle on any game coming in on Dallas. That said, in NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%).
The G-Men also have these three fantastic betting systems in their favor: 1) Teams playing as underdogs in their second of back-to-back divisional games are 15-16-1 SU & 21-10-1 ATS (67.8%) in Week 2 since 2004. 2) Teams that lost by double-digits in Week 1 have responded by going 50-29-3 ATS (63.3%) in Week 2 over the last 13 seasons. 3) Teams whose opponents played in the weeknight season opening games of Thursday and Friday and thus have extra rest are 17-25 SU but 25-16-1 ATS (61%) in Week 2 since 2005. If that weren’t enough, Dallas head coach Brian Schottenheimer faces this tough rookie coach angle: rookie head coaches haven’t been good at covering point spreads at home over the last decade—148-174-10 ATS (46%). And finally, dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams (Russell Wilson – Giants) have gone 36-31 SU and 45-22 ATS (67.2%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: My money is on the Giants +4.5 to be much more competitive this week
Chicago at Detroit
My first sentiments after watching last week’s opening games featuring the Lions and Bears: Detroit is going to have some growing pains moving on from the loss of its offensive and defensive coordinators, particularly the former. The offense was unrecognizably conservative versus Green Bay and rarely threw the ball beyond 10 yards downfield, even when trailing big. Chicago is no better than last year, and the reasons for everyone believing it would be are inconsequential so long as QB Caleb Williams won’t exercise more patience with the offense. It’s amazing how much one half of football can impact a team’s fortunes, but unfortunately for the Bears, it looks like same old, same old.
The Detroit loss may prove to be important down the road, but for now, I would expect a bounce back: Teams that lost by double digits in Week 1 have responded by going 50-29-3 ATS (63.3%) in Week 2 over the last 13 seasons. That would start with seeing a little more creativity, a thing they have demonstrated consistently at home in scoring 32.6 PPG in their last 32 home contests. They are 23-10-1 ATS (69.7%) at home since 2021, and head coach Dan Campbell is on a 10-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss. My power ratings say this line should be Lions -8.2, I trust that here.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: I got Detroit -6 versus Chicago
Seattle at Pittsburgh
Lost in the delirium of Pittsburgh’s crazy 34-32 win and QB Aaron Rodgers’ four TD performance was the fact that Pittsburgh didn’t really play well on either side of the ball. The Steelers were outgained 394-271, got a key special teams turnover and escaped with a 60-yard winning field goal. Those three parts of the recipe aren’t exactly winning points. Now, they are laying points at home to a Seattle team that comes off a tough loss to San Francisco.
The situational spot looks strong for the Seahawks based upon historical trends as they are 35-25 ATS (58.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2015, 22-16-1 ATS (57.9%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015, and 37-28 ATS (56.9%) as an underdog since 2016. Head coach Mike Macdonald’s team also fits into two great betting systems from my Week 1 overreactions piece: 1) In Week 2 games between teams that are both 0-1 ATS, underdogs are on a phenomenal run of 20-23 SU but 28-13-2 ATS (68.3%) since 2014 and this one against Pittsburgh 2) Week 2 teams that scored 30+ points last week and are now playing as favorites of 6-points or less or are underdogs are 20-38 SU and 22-36 ATS (37.9%) since 2012.
I mentioned Rodgers’ and his big performance last week earlier, however, consider that since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 15-23 SU and 11-27 ATS (28.9%) and in their last 55 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 28-27 SU and 22-32-1 ATS (40.7%).
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: I’ll take the +3 points with Seattle heading to Pittsburgh
Philadelphia at Kansas City
After a 2024 season that was littered with close wins, good fortune, and perhaps an occasional blessing from the referees, most football fans would love to finally kiss the Chiefs goodbye this year. Their last two games, a blowout loss in the Super Bowl to Philly and last week to the Chargers, indicate that fans’ wishes might come sooner than anyone thought. Do you think it’s over? Is KC’s long run of success going to finally come crashing down this year? If so, then the choice for this game, the Super Bowl revenge contest, is easy. If KC is done, there is no way they pull off an upset versus the Eagles here. However, if you still believe in Patrick Mahomes, who had an MVP-worthy game last week, and are not ready to pull the plug, then head coach Andy Reid’s team deserves your consideration here. I personally am leaning to the latter, and I think a home underdog game at Arrowhead, the first since 2022, is just the spark this team might need to stave off the naysayers, as least for another week.
Let’s face it, the Eagles didn’t look all that great against Dallas last week either. Let’s look at some analytics pointing me in the Chiefs’ direction. First, in Week 2 games between teams that are both 0-1 ATS, underdogs are on a phenomenal run of 20-23 SU but 28-13-2 ATS (68.3%) since 2014. Second, Mahomes holds an incredible record as an underdog, being 11-3 straight up (SU) and 12-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in his career. Kansas City’s Andy Reid is on a 15-3 SU and 12-5 ATS surge in non-conference games. Third, recall that KC had the seventh-ranked run defense in the NFL last year. The Eagles will have to throw to win.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: I’ll trust KC (+1.5) here to get a motivated and revenge-minded win
Atlanta at Minnesota
Was the Vikings’ team we saw in the first 45 minutes of the MNF contest versus the Bears the real one, or was the team that made a sparkling comeback behind rookie QB JJ McCarthy the one we should expect to see going forward? Personally, I’m not sure we can take it that far yet, as the jury is still out. We all know that McCarthy has a rich history of being a winner, 66-3 if I recall correctly in his last 69 games starting at various levels. He steps into a betting system in this game that has been fantastic lately: Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 41-11 SU and 38-13-1 ATS (74.5%). They have also fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 68-49 ATS (58.1%).
If you’re worried about him being under the lights and scrutiny of Sunday night football, don’t be. He just thrived on Monday night! Plus, momentum has proven huge in SNF games of late, as teams coming off losses have not been ready for the big time, going just 11-26 SU and 12-25 ATS (32.4%) in their last 37 tries against teams off a win. Overall, home teams on SNF coming off a win are on a current 28-8 SU and 22-14 ATS (61.1%) surge. I think the Vikings took a lot away from Monday’s comeback. I think they’ll continue to ride that here.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 3.5 points with the Vikings on SNF
Monday, September 15, 2025
Tampa Bay at Houston
There are a lot of fans who have been quick to rip Houston’s offense after a lackluster performance in Week 1 at the Rams. With the Texans’ scoring 19 points or more in 18 of their last 19 home games with CJ Stroud at the helm, is it more likely that last week’s stumbles are just a blip on the radar? Of course. However, I’m not willing to bet against QB Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, as once again, they proved last week that they are a dangerous team and can explode at any time.
If you catch where I’m heading, yes, I do like the Over 42.5 in this one, especially with 89% of the handle backing the Under at DraftKings. Regarding Houston and the 14-9 decision last week, Week 2 teams that went Under their Week 1 total by at least 17 points are 27-17 Over (61.4%) the total since 2008. Tampa Bay is also on a 26-8 Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog. My Bettors’ Ratings this week say the market really values these offenses to perform at a 45.4 total level. I think that’s closer to what we’ll see.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: I got Over 42.5 in the early MNF TB-HOU tilt
For more NFL Week 2 best bets, visit the NFL Week 2 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
