NFL Week 2 Early Best Bets from Mike Somich:
With the new NFL season about to kick off, I get to kick off a new weekly article. For years on VSiN, I have been preaching if you want to become a more profitable bettor, there are two very easy steps to take. First, having outs, at least five separate sports books is ideal so you can always get the best number, but you should have at least two to three places you can shop for the best prices. The second is to bet earlier. Matt Brown and I have consistently discussed this on Ready, Set, Bet over the last two years when announcing the following week’s lines. This year, I’m taking that a step further. I’ll be writing an article all season 10 days out from the following week’s action with the goal to get ahead of the likely line moves before they take place.
Now, betting Week 2 before Week 1 has even kicked off can be a little touch and go at times. We will get screwed by injuries, or maybe benefit, in some weeks. Weather will be a factor. Do not expect to see many Browns home game Over bets later in the season, but in the end, luck should balance out.
Each week, I will highlight a couple of games that I want to target for the following Sunday to see if we can get ahead of some lines, end up with some closing line value, and, hopefully, cash the tickets along the way.
Early Week 2 plays
Jacksonville vs. Cincinnati (-5.5, Total 49.5)
Is the total high? Yes. Is it high enough? No, it’s not. Let’s look to the Week 1 totals for both of these teams, first the Bengals.
Bengals at Browns – Total 47.5
Now let’s compare the Jags to the Browns. The Browns are significantly better on defense with a top-tier pass rusher and better in the secondary than the Jags. They also have division familiarity playing this offense twice a year. Offensively, Jacksonville has a better QB, two better WRs, and a better running back room than the Browns. All of that is worth more than two points to the total.
Panther vs Jaguars – Total 46.5 (one of my favorite Over plays this week)
The Panthers’ offense is better than Cleveland’s with a better QB, RB, and WR room, while having just as bad a defense as Jacksonville (both bottom five)
If both Week 1 games go under, this total will re-open at 49.5, if both go Over, this could be as high as 52.5. Jacksonville and Cincinnati both played their starters in the preseason, so I don’t expect either to struggle offensively early. This is an obvious Over to target.
The Play – Jaguars/Bengals Over 49.5
Tampa Bay vs. Houston (-1.5, Total 46.5)
I was surprised to see the total this high for a Texans game to begin with, but the likelihood it drops lower after Week 1 action is significant. The Texans face the Rams in Week 1, a team that should be able to generate ample pass rush against a weak Houston offensive line. On the other side of the ball, Stafford and co. will face the best defense in the NFL with no live reps in the pre-season. At this point, I do not think people have accurately graded out either side of the ball for the Texans and the Rams game should expose that.
The Bucs upgraded the pass rush in the offseason, which will make Houston’s life difficult in Week 2, and they are missing quite a few pieces of their own on the offensive side of the ball. No Wirfs, McMillian or Godwin reduces the upside of this offense vs a top-tier defense.
Let’s get in on the Under before this falls below 45.
The Play – Bucs/Texans Under 46.5
