NFL Week 2:

It sure was great to have the NFL back, wasn’t it? Well, for some fan bases and bettors anyway. The 34% chunk that got knocked out of Circa Survivor on the Bengals didn’t have a very fun Sunday. They weren’t the only ones, as we saw a few tough beats and some quirky results, but the NFL is back and we’ve seen a real game with starters and everything so now the focus shifts to Week 2.

It is always interesting to see where a number was on the lookahead lines and then see where it is as the new week gets going. The one thing about Week 1 that was nice for all involved is that there weren’t a whole lot of big injuries, so that’s a positive going into Week 2.

 

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Here is the Week 2 NFL Odds Report:

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-1, 51)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

The Bills and Dolphins draw the short straw this week with the quick turnaround for Thursday night. On the plus side for the Bills, they don’t have to bake to a good “well done” in the blasting sunshine of the visitor’s sideline at Hard Rock Stadium because the sun will have set by the time this one gets going.

Buffalo’s big comeback against the Cardinals spared a lot of Survivor players, but it still wasn’t a confidence-boosting type of performance. That being said, bettors won’t be able to forget that the Dolphins lost twice to the Bills last season and lost nearly every game against playoff teams. It remains to be seen whether or not Buffalo is a playoff team this year, but they are a playoff-caliber team and the Dolphins have their hands full with those. This line peaked at -2.5 prior to Sunday’s results.

Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 39.5) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

It is going to be a long season in Charlotte. The Panthers were pummeled by the Saints in a 47-10 laugher that seemed to be over before fans even sat down with a beer. The Chargers won in Jim Harbaugh’s debut and, even though Justin Herbert looked very rusty, we saw a sizable line adjustment for this week’s game.

The Chargers have to go across the country, but that may not matter if this is who the Panthers are. This line was -3.5 on the lookahead, but touched as high as 6 on Sunday night before settling back in at 5.5 across most of the market.

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 45.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

I won’t pat myself on the back too hard for saying that the Browns had no business being favored against the Cowboys, but Dallas shined at newly-renamed Huntington Bank Field. The aforementioned Saints also shined against the lowly Panthers. However, this line is still 6.5, which is where it was in the lead-up to Sunday.

This will be a key line to follow. Browns money hit the board last week after the Cowboys had a dismal month of August in the news cycle. Then they went out and barely broke a sweat in the win. The Saints beat up on what people will say is the worst team in the league, which merits less respect than beating the Browns. But, I have a hunch this line comes down throughout the week.

Indianapolis Colts (-3, 41.5) at Green Bay Packers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

As I said, there weren’t a lot of big injuries, but the Packers were one of the teams to suffer one. Jordan Love has a MCL injury and won’t play this week against the Colts. We’ve got over a touchdown swing in this line from where it was last week at 4.5 or 5. The betting market doesn’t seem to have a whole lot of faith in Malik Willis.

There will be a lot of second-guessing of the Packers for not getting Tyler Huntley, Jameis Winston, or any of the other QBs that could’ve been available after the preseason. The Colts lost to the Texans, but did cover in a close game, so they may have gotten some respect anyway, but now we just get a full line adjustment with Love sidelined.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 42.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Jaguars ultimately came up short against the Dolphins by not being able to get off the field on third down. Fortunately, they draw a Browns bunch that had virtually no hope of staying on the field with a third-down conversion. Deshaun Watson looked cooked. And that’s putting it mildly.

The Browns could be such a polarizing team in the betting markets going forward. This is a good roster with a terrible quarterback. I do think that Kevin Stefanski has to give a lot of thought to rolling with Jameis Winston this week. I do not think that he ultimately will. I’d be curious to see where this line would go if Winston was named the starter. For now, I have to assume there’s a good chance this goes to 3.5, as Dallas also exposed Cleveland’s defense a bit.

Seattle Seahawks (-3, 39.5) at New England Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Patriots proved the “Blind Squirrel Theory” by finding a nut in Cincinnati. Honestly, Jerod Mayo’s defense played well and the Patriots played a “perfect road game”, so to speak. The Seahawks make the long trek this week to Foxboro and this line really wasn’t adjusted one way or the other.

It wasn’t always pretty for Seattle against the Broncos last week, but they won in Mike Macdonald’s debut and have a good shot at moving to 2-0. The George Fant injury is a real bummer for the Seahawks. We’ll get more clarity on his status over the next few days, but offensive line injuries always scare me. We saw this line touch 4 at one point, but it sits on the key number heading into game week.

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-2.5, 42)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Unlike the Saints and Cowboys, who both looked quite good, we have a matchup here of two teams that looked rather bad in Week 1. The Giants looked really bad, as Sam Darnold carved them up. The Commanders looked like a team with a rookie QB on the road in his NFL debut, but also gave up 6.4 yards per play and barely got close enough to sniff Baker Mayfield. 

I’ll say this – the Commanders at least had some promising moments with Jayden Daniels’ two rushing TDs. I’m not sure there was a positive moment for the Giants at any point in their game against the Vikings. Minnesota got flipped into a road favorite last week, while Washington took money against Tampa. Could we see this one move to 3 over the next 24 hours?

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6, 47)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

There aren’t enough adjectives to describe what happened in Cincinnati on Sunday. You could, if you really wanted to, mention the Mike Gesicki TD that was taken off the board and the subsequent third-down fumble at the goal line by Tanner Hudson. However, you could also point to Cincinnati’s complete inability to run the football and 48 total plays on offense.

Meanwhile, it feels like an eternity ago, but the Chiefs bested the Ravens by a toenail on Thursday Night Football last week. Kansas City’s athleticism is insane, as they racked up 7.1 yards per play and the defense, which faced 74 plays from the Ravens, got some extra downtime to rest. This is a big mover after Cincy’s shocking upset loss, going from -3.5 to -6.

Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6.5, 46)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Caleb Williams owes the Titans for his first career win. Maybe he can paint his nails Titans blue for the game against the Texans as a way of saying thanks. Much to my chagrin, and the chagrin of many, the Titans blew a 17-0 lead with a blocked kick and probably the most egregious pick-six I’ve seen in quite some time.

Williams was 14-of-29 for 93 yards. The Bears had 2.8 yards per play. They won the game anyway. Bettors were not impressed to say the least. Houston shot up from -3.5 to -6.5 and some books are even showing 7 as of Sunday night. Keep an eye on totals all week long, as a lot of QBs looked bad on the first Sunday of the season. Of course, also keep in mind that Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, and Aaron Rodgers were the six QBs not to play on Sunday and they’re all pretty damn good.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 48)

Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Let’s watch this line closely for Monday Night Football. The Falcons suffered a very ugly loss on paper to the Steelers. Kirk Cousins was terrible. On the other hand, the defense only allowed 4.1 yards per play and Pittsburgh kicked six field goals on scoring drives of 31, 18, 45, 24, 46, and 11 yards. The Eagles are clearly stacked, but the Falcons got a little bit unfortunate in some respects last week.

Box score study is important in both the NFL and college football to look for games that had weird and wonky incidents. I’m not saying run and bet Atlanta. I’m saying this line was 4 and now it’s 6 and I think there will be some brave souls ready to line up with Atlanta. If nothing else, maybe we’ll see Under money hit the board.

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