Survivor
Sweats are nothing new to Survivor players, but having nearly all of them fall in favor of the most popular teams feels like the exception, not the norm. Week 1 mostly went according to plan, as the Broncos, Cardinals, Eagles, Jaguars, Bengals, Commanders, and Steelers all won. The most popular team to cause eliminations was the Patriots, who were picked by just 1.4% of the Circa Survivor field. So, that brings us to Week 2 Survivor with a mostly full field.
To add some additional context, how about this VSiN screengrab on X from our friends at PoolGenius:
In the six-year history of Circa Survivor, we’ve seen some major Week 1 carnage. This year, with the largest field ever, we did not. Even if Andre Szmyt could make a kick, less than 10% of the field would have been eradicated. Shout-out to the brave souls who took the Bengals in Week 1 after last year’s disaster against the Patriots.
Anyway, onward we go into Week 2 Survivor, where contestants that have the Circa rules are in a bit of a pickle. Those who do not are probably just going to take the Ravens and plan to move on to Week 3. Those who need to be cognizant of Thanksgiving have a decision to make. At least the Ravens don’t play on Christmas as well.
Real quick, a recap of my Survivor bullet points from the summer and Week 1:
- Focus on going 1-0 every week, but don’t forget that you need to go 18-0 (or 20-0) so planning is important
- Remember that you have to take 18 (or 20) of the 32 teams; so you won’t always have an elite or even very good team
- Survive early, “play the game” later; focus on going deep into the contest and as people start to drop off, that’s where you can start thinking more about game theory, gamesmanship, and going a little contrarian
I’ll be treating this like a Circa Survivor entry until I pick a loser, but I didn’t even double up on any teams last year. The goal here is to keep in mind which teams contestants are likely to have on that given week to provide relevant, applicable advice.
Also, I’ll be implementing some tools from our pals over at PoolGenius, where I am also in their PoolGenius Survivor Bowl, including Stormy Buonantony, Matt Brown, Jonathan Von Tobel, Kelley Bydlon, Will Hill, and Ben Stevens, as well as several other sports betting media members.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks.
Good luck this in Week 2, fam!
Week 2 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Baltimore Ravens (-12) over Cleveland Browns
While Browns fans are (correctly) up in arms about the Ravens celebrating their 30th Anniversary when the team that Art Modell stole and moved to Baltimore in the middle of the night is in town, there’s still a huge gap between these two teams. Maybe the Browns do have some extra juice off of last week’s near-miss and with the slap in the face to the city that they call home, but the Ravens are likely to be just as motivated and focused after giving away last week’s game to the Bills.
I’m not going to say that Cleveland will win, but the Browns were clearly better than the Bengals last week and, shockingly, are 4-3 against the Ravens over the last seven head-to-head meetings. Plus, you’d like to keep Baltimore as a Thanksgiving option if you’re in the Circa Survivor or follow those rules. If not, by all means fire away on the biggest favorite of the week.
Per PoolGenius, the Ravens are 86% to beat the Browns, easily the highest win probability of the week.
Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) over New York Giants
It looks like it might be a long season in Dallas, though the Cowboys didn’t pout about Micah Parsons in their Week 1 game against the Eagles. In fact, they may have been a CeeDee Lamb catch away from finishing off the drive and pulling a massive upset. They didn’t, but this is the best week to take them on paper. They’re hosting the Giants, who failed to score a touchdown last week.
They are a Thanksgiving (vs. Chiefs) and Christmas (at Commanders) team, so there is some incentive to keep them, just in case those two teams have major injuries and Dallas becomes an option. However, based on the PoolGenius Circa Survivor Season Planner, the next highest win probability past this week’s 64% is 58% against the Giants on the road in Week 18. I cannot stress this enough – you have to take 18 or 20 of the 32 NFL teams. You’re never going to take the Saints, Browns, Titans (probably), Giants (probably), Dolphins (probably), Panthers (probably). If you cross out those six teams, all of the sudden, you have to take 18 or 20 of 26 teams. These are the hard decisions that you sometimes have to make to post a perfect record.
Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) over Tennessee Titans
I’ll preface this by saying that the Rams might fit the mold as being something of a “contrarian” pick, so if you have a more aggressive risk profile and want to embrace the variance early, this could be your landing spot. The Rams are circled for Week 9 at home against the Saints for me, but I do think this is an intriguing option and probably not one as popular as you might think.
Cam Ward faces another very stout defense in this one and, while it is a road game with an early kick for the Rams, LA has a massive coaching advantage with Sean McVay against Brian Callahan. The Titans should have been bigger benefactors of four Broncos turnovers, but mustered just 12 points in total and six points off of said turnovers. Denver even turned it over on downs twice. Clearly the offense is still a work in progress.
PoolGenius has the Rams with the fourth-highest win probability at 68%. The aforementioned Saints game sits at 82% and is the best Week 9 option at present.
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) over New York Jets
There are better spots to take Buffalo down the line, including their Week 3, Week 4, and Week 5 games according to PoolGenius. But, there is a line of thinking that includes Buffalo this week. You know that Josh Allen is healthy. This would still be a good team without Allen, but not an elite team like they are with him. The drop from Allen to Mitchell Trubisky is pretty significant.
So, you can certainly justify taking Buffalo in a spot where you know that Allen will start the game. He is a running QB at times and can take some punishment. Plus, you never really know when injuries will happen. Personally, I’ll save them for another week, especially since any of the next three are good and are all at home for a team with no holiday considerations.
PoolGenius does have them listed at 72%, second to the Ravens, for this week.
Detroit Lions (-5.5) over Chicago Bears
Obviously we know that Detroit is a Thanksgiving consideration at home against Green Bay, though based on what we saw last week, that seems questionable. The Lions also play at Minnesota on Christmas. Personally, I would try very hard not to burn any holiday teams early. You simply never know what state teams will be in come Week 13 or Week 17.
But, this is just a token mention as a decent-sized favorite. If you don’t have to worry about holidays, the Lions host Cleveland in two weeks and host the Giants in Week 12 and those are better spots to consider.
PoolGenius does have them as the fifth-most likely team to win at 65%.
NFL Week 2 Survivor Pick
Arizona Cardinals (-7) over Carolina Panthers
At time of writing, Circa was hanging -7 while the rest of the market was -6.5. It looks like they’re fishing for anybody interested in taking the Panthers. Carolina looked objectively terrible last week against the Jaguars. Bryce Young was 25th out of 26 QBs with at least 32 plays in Week 1 in EPA+CPOE (expected points added + completion percentage over expected), better than only Russell Wilson. Kyler Murray was 14th, but a lot of that had to do with a low average depth of target.
The Panthers were 29th in EPA/play on offense per RBSDM and the run game was better (18th in Rush EPA) than the passing game (29th in Dropback EPA). By comparison, Arizona was pretty average across the board, which is disappointing given the opponent, but they did beat the Saints and now play at home.
Jacksonville had five red zone trips to Carolina’s one. Young averaged 4.5 yards per target. On the surface, there are only two spots to take Arizona – this week and then Week 5 with the Titans at home. I’ll take my chances this week with the Cardinals in a very favorable situation and reasons to save the other options.
NFL Week 2 Survivor Pick: Cardinals
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