Matt Youmans – NFL Week 3 Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Week 3 best bets.
Denver (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers
One of Jim Harbaugh’s strengths as a coach is his positive-reinforcement approach. He’s a hype man for his players, especially quarterback Justin Herbert, and the Chargers have been transformed into a new-look team with a winning attitude.
The Chargers (2-0) sit atop the AFC West after upsetting the Chiefs in Brazil and beating the Raiders in Las Vegas. With a win over the Broncos (1-1) on Sunday in Los Angeles, the Chargers could take control of the division for the first time in a long time. Herbert’s play is worthy of the hype. He has completed 72% of his passes for 560 yards and five touchdowns while also being the team’s second-leading rusher.
Denver’s strength is undoubtedly its defense, despite allowing 29 points in a controversial, penalty-filled defeat at Indianapolis a week ago. Broncos coach Sean Payton made some dubious decisions in the first two games. The same goes for quarterback Bo Nix, who has thrown three interceptions.
What’s ironic in this matchup is the Broncos have been far more effective with their rushing offense — 134.5 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry, compared to the Chargers’ 85.5 ypg and 3.4 ypc — and Harbaugh is the coach who wants to put more emphasis on the running attack. The Chargers did suffer a big loss on their offensive line when tackle Rashawn Slater went down in the preseason, and the Broncos’ offensive line ranks among the NFL’s best.
The Chargers, who ranked No. 1 in the league in scoring defense last season and rank No. 3 this season, also lost linebacker Khalil Mack to a dislocated elbow in Monday’s game.
This is the third consecutive division game for the Chargers, who don’t have much of a home-field advantage. Aside from Herbert, the Chargers don’t have any significant matchup advantages against the Broncos, who will be motivated to make amends for last week’s meltdown and keep the division race tight.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Denver Broncos +3
Indianapolis (-4.5) at Tennessee
Is the career revival for quarterback Daniel Jones a reality? “Indiana” Jones is No. 3 in the league in passing yards (588) while Jonathan Taylor ranks No. 2 in rushing yards (236). The Colts could be the real deal, but this won’t be an easy number to cover in Nashville. Tennessee has a strong defensive front that will put the heat on Jones. I’m betting that Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward will show real progress in his third start.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Tennessee Titans +4.5
Green Bay (-8) at Cleveland
It has looked too easy for Jordan Love and the Green Bay offense, but that will change in the Packers’ first road game. Myles Garrett has 3.5 sacks for Cleveland, which leads the league in yards allowed (191.5 per game) by a large margin. The biggest challenge for the Browns will be avoiding costly mistakes and getting competent play from quarterback Joe Flacco. This is a game the Packers should have to sweat out and the Browns should cover.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +8
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia (-3.5)
Saquon Barkley ran wild in the Eagles’ two victories over the Rams last season, but the Philadelphia offense is not in midseason form. Jalen Hurts has no touchdown passes in two games. Barkley has been limited to 3.7 yards per carry, and A.J. Brown has a total of only 35 receiving yards. The Rams rank No. 1 in scoring defense (14.0 ppg) and fourth in total defense (258.5 ypg) with Jared Verse leading the front seven. The Eagles are 2-0 and probably should be 0-2, so their luck is going to expire soon.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Los Angeles Rams +3.5
New York Jets at Tampa Bay (-6.5)
After pulling a pair of road wins out of the fire, Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers return home for what appears to be a soft landing spot against a winless team with a backup quarterback. It’s not a great spot, however. Tampa Bay is down three starting offensive linemen with right tackle Luke Goedeke, right guard Cody Mauch and left tackle Tristan Wirfs all sidelined. The Jets will likely hang around in this game and threaten to pull the upset. Veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor is a good backup plan for injured Justin Fields.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: New York Jets +6.5
Dallas (-1.5) at Chicago
There is no logical reason for this to be a low-scoring game and it should be a shootout. Bears coach Ben Johnson is desperate to get his offense on track. That should happen against a Dallas defense that allowed 506 yards and 37 points to the Giants. Chicago’s defense surrendered 511 yards and 52 points to the Lions last week. Dak Prescott (43 pass attempts per game) will be firing away against a weak secondary. It’s probably better to bet on points than to try to pick the winner in this coin-flip game (and I lean to the Bears, believe it or not).
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Cowboys-Bears Over 50
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