Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 3 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 3 best bets:
Cleveland +8.5 vs. Green Bay
It is not a surprise that Cleveland is 0-2 to start the season. However, they have outgained both of their opponents, and the defense, at least early on, has shown to be an elite group. The Browns currently lead the NFL in both total defense and rushing defense.
Green Bay is 2-0 with home wins before national audiences against two playoff teams from last year: Detroit and Washington. The Packers defense has been one of the more dominant units in their own right, currently ranking second in rushing defense and third in total defense.
While the Browns offense has been slow to get out of the gate, rookie RB Quinshon Judkins did make his debut last week (10 carries, 61 yards) at Baltimore and could give this unit a needed spark.
The Packers have a big Sunday Night Football game on deck with Micah Parsons’ return to Dallas after being traded to Green Bay last month.
Home dogs of 7 pts or more since 2020 in the first half of the season are 37-10-2 ATS and 18-1-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +8.5
New York Jets +7 (-125) at Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay could easily be 0-2 but are 2-0 with late game heroics both in Atlanta and at Houston this past Monday night. Now the wounded Bucs come back to Tampa for their home opener.
Baker Mayfield was a bit banged up against Houston but is good to go to start against the Jets. However, his offense will be short-handed with receivers Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan still out. Rookie standout Emeka Egbuka was also limited on Friday. The injuries to the receiving corps are just the tip of the iceberg. The Bucs will be without three starting OL as LT Tristan Wirfs is still out for at least another week, plus RT Luke Goedeke just went on IR and RG Cody Mauch is now out for the season.
Mayfield also leads in the league in turnover-worthy throws. In just two games, he has had six potential interceptions dropped by opposing defenders.
On the other side, Tyrod Taylor will start at QB for Justin Fields, who will miss with a concussion. Taylor is not all that much of a downgrade from Fields. He has a 33-21-4 ATS record for his career and is 21-12-3 ATS as an underdog. He takes care of the football and makes solid decisions.
The Tampa turnover regression plus the injuries should be too much for them to get much, if any, margin on the Jets.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: New York Jets +7
Best of the Rest
Denver +3 at Los Angeles Chargers
One of the lead stories this week is “What’s wrong with the 0-2 Chiefs?” With the defending AFC Champions struggling, the Chargers are now the AFC West favorites for the first time in many years. Being the favorite comes with expectations. The Chargers have one of the lowest-rated home-field advantages in the NFL, which is why this number appears so small.
Tennessee +4.5 vs. Indianapolis
While the Titans are off to an 0-2 start and are breaking in a rookie QB, this is a tough spot for the Colts. They won two emotional games at home, including the opener against Miami, when they put their recently deceased owner Jim Irsay into the Ring of Honor on “For the Boss” day. Then they got a reprieve due to a Broncos leverage penalty to get another chance to kick the game-winning FG at the horn. It is always difficult when a team wins its previous game as a home underdog and now has to be in the road favorite role in the following week.
Total of the Week
Dallas Cowboys/Chicago Bears Under 50.5
Teaser of the Week
Seattle Seahawks -1/New England Patriots +8
For more NFL Week 3 best bets, visit the NFL Week 3 hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
