NFL Week 3 Betting Systems:

It has already been an unusual betting season already. Several teams looked horrible in Week 1 but bounced back in Week 2 and vice versa. From the sounds of it, bettors have been getting beat up by the books early, particularly this last week when underdogs enjoyed a huge slate. 

There are nine undefeated teams left, with two each coming from the AFC West and NFC South divisions and nine teams that have yet to win. You’d have to count Baltimore and Cincinnati as the biggest surprises of that bunch. The early results are just a small indicator of how quickly things can turn in the NFL. Typically, after two weeks of games, bettors are already forming distinctive opinions about all of the teams, and in turn, those setting the odds try to take advantage of this. I’m going to try to help you avoid some traps they are going to try to set for you this week.

 

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Regardless of what has happened in the first two weeks, historically, Week 3 has had a penchant for evening the scales, so tread cautiously this weekend. Perhaps have the courage to go “against the grain” regarding what we’ve seen. Bettors who have done so have normally reaped the rewards. It’s also imperative that you understand what has transpired with each team in terms of personnel, as we’ve already seen some major injuries that have affected games and will continue to in the coming weeks.

I’m here to look at some different NFL handicapping systems that have thrived in recent years, using logic that might not seem all that sensible. Backing these types of angles helps bettors avoid what I feel could be considered “traps.” Let’s take a look at six different concepts you’ll want to consider as you prepare your wagers for this weekend and figure out the games that will be affected:

  1. NFL Week 3 Betting System #1: Teams that start out 0-2 SU in the NFL are 26-25 SU but 35-15-1 ATS (70%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010

There’s a tidal wave of negativity that gets associated with the winless teams after two weeks, and while they remain typically bad when matched against undefeated teams, they do perform quite well against the middle-of-the-road opponents. In most cases, the 1-1 team has shown early signs of inconsistency, and I don’t know of any bettors that are actively looking to bet teams like that. Trust that the desperate 0-2 teams will bring their best effort into this week’s contest, motivated by the fear of going 0-3 and what that has historically meant to teams’ playoff chances.

The 0-2 teams in 2024, with their prospective matchups for Week 3 against 1-1 teams are as follows:

INDIANAPOLIS (-1) vs. Chicago
NY GIANTS (+6) at Cleveland
TENNESSEE (-3) vs. Green Bay
CAROLINA (+5.5) at Las Vegas
BALTIMORE (-1) at Dallas
LA RAMS (+7) vs. San Francisco
CINCINNATI (-7.5) vs. Washington 

With a typical amount of 3.6 games per season qualifying for this angle, we get a “double batch” for 2024. If percentages hold up, you would think that 3/4 of these teams win outright and five cover their point spreads. If you consider the lines of these seven games, in three of them, the chances of the winless teams going to 0-3 but possibly still covering are pretty strong, as dogs of +5.5 points or more are on a roll this season early. Three of the winless clubs are favorites, including the Ravens, who are road favorites. Baltimore and Cincinnati would figure to be the most desperate teams of the group, as both had realistic playoff aspirations heading into the season. If one of these teams has been the biggest disappointment, it figures to be the Ravens, as they have lost two close games are now in a position of having to win at a usual NFC power to avoid the dreaded 0-3 doomsday scenario.

NFL Week 3 Betting System #2: Winless teams in the NFL are 20-35-1 SU but 36-20 ATS (64.3%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more since 2010

This system wreaks of pure desperation by the 0-2 team. Surely, you’ve seen the stats indicating that only six teams since 1980 have reached the postseason after an 0-3 start. That’s essentially only one team every seven years. In other words, you can almost kiss the playoff chances goodbye for the teams below should they lose their Week 3 contests. That’s enough to fuel even the worst team’s effort level. Here are the winless teams playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more this week:

NY GIANTS (+6) at Cleveland
CAROLINA (+5.5) at Las Vegas
LA RAMS (+7) vs. San Francisco 

If history serves, expect the Giants, Panthers, and Rams to be very competitive this week and perhaps at least threaten upsets. Last year, the two outright winners (out of 5) on this angle were dogs in excess of 7 points, so there was a nice moneyline return. Recognize that bettors in past years have also faced this same difficulty of choosing to back a team that looks hopeless at this point, like the Panthers, for instance, and may be playing better teams, but for whatever reason, they do bring a solid effort in most cases. Note that one of these teams is a massive dog at home, and while battling injuries to some of its playmakers, will certainly take offense to this disrespect by oddsmakers. The Rams have no chance, right? Or do they? 

NFL Week 3 Betting System #3: Teams allowing more than 6.50 yards per play in the first two weeks have rebounded in Week 3 with a record of 26-16 SU and 27-15 ATS (64.3%) since 2015. 

This absolutely goes against all logic when it comes to bettors and the choices they make. The teams that have allowed more than 6.5 yards per play have shown to be the league’s worst defensively in the first two games. Why in the world would any self-respecting bettor consider backing a team like this in the third game? Well, this is exactly how the sportsbooks entrap their clients. Typically, teams that were that bad defensively in the early going rebound, as they are motivated by the bad press about them and/or make adjustments. In many cases, the Week 3 matchup is also against a lesser opponent offensively than they faced in the first two games.

In 2022, four teams allowed at least 6.5 yards per play defensively in the first two games. Last season, only one team allowed more than 6.0 yards per play, and that was the Chargers, who went into Minnesota in Week 3 and won 28-24 as 1-point dogs. For 2024, three teams are allowing 6.5 yards per play or higher, unfortunately, two of them play against one another. 

PHILADELPHIA (+2.5) at New Orleans

As I just mentioned, two of the qualifying teams play one another this week, San Francisco and the Rams. Interestingly, despite the brutal defensive start, the Eagles still find themselves in the role of a pretty small road underdog heading to New Orleans. The Saints have scored 91 points in the first two games and have quickly converted fans and bettors alike onto their bandwagon. This is about as interesting of a game and line scenario as it is on the Week 3 slate.

NFL Week 3 Betting System #4: The league’s best defensive teams after two weeks, or those allowing 14 PPG or less so far, are 25-21 SU but just 14-31-1 ATS (31.1%) in Week 3 since 2005 when favored by 3 points or more.

It’s obvious from this system and the last one that bettors shouldn’t put too much stock into the defensive performance of teams in the first two weeks. Oftentimes, the numbers that a defense puts up in the early going reflect the opposing offenses they’ve faced. Those who played bad offenses have fared well, while those who faced the elite attacks are probably being misjudged. Again, this is a trap that many bettors fall into. After two weeks, the Chargers, Steelers, and Vikings boast the league’s top defenses. Unfortunately, the Chargers and Steelers play each other with a tight -1.5 point spread as of press time, and the Vikings play as home underdogs to the Texans.

NO QUALIFYING PLAYS – watch Chargers line if it approaches 3-points

If you recall, last year, there was only one qualifying game for this system: the Cowboys, who traveled to Arizona for a Week 3 tilt. In that one, a seemingly dominant Dallas team was upset 28-16 as an 11.5-point favorite. 

NFL Week 3 Betting System #5: Teams gaining more than 6.75 yards per play in the first two weeks have continued their impressive play in Week 3 with a record of 18-7 SU and ATS (72%) since 2015.

So, this system wouldn’t be considered a “trap” per se, but the reason I have included it here is to remind people that it is good offense that continues to rule the day in the NFL and is the more consistent factor in a team’s resume that should be relied upon. So far, there are three teams that have been truly elite offensively, and to be perfectly honest, all are a surprise. The Vikings lead the league right now with 7.15 YPP, followed by New Orleans at 6.99, and Indianapolis at 6.89. What makes these numbers so impressive is that no one else is above 6.5 right now. These offenses are clicking, even the Colts at 1-1, and historically speaking, it makes no sense to step in front of the train until a key injury or other factor has a negative impact. All three teams are at home this week.

INDIANAPOLIS (-1) vs. Chicago
MINNESOTA (+2.5) vs. Houston
NEW ORLEANS (-2.5) vs. Philadelphia 

This is a very interesting set of games in that none of these offenses are getting the type of respect they typically would at this point in time. In fact, oddsmakers seem to be suggesting these fantastic offensive starts should be disregarded. The Colts are actually facing the league’s worst offensive team this week (3.21 YPP) and are just a 1-point home favorite. Massive mistake by oddsmakers, or are they smarter than us? 

NFL Week 3 Betting System #6: Since 2008, the league’s best undefeated teams after two weeks, those having outscored teams by 25 points or more, are 25-22 SU but 16-29-2 ATS (35.6%) in Week 3.

These are the teams that odds makers tend to shade the lines heavily towards in Week 3, as they have put up the most sterling performances in the early going. Some of the teams may have actually warranted the respect. Others though, may have been the beneficiary of turnover luck or favorable scheduling in the first two weeks to get to where they are. Recognize that if you’re backing a team that has won its first two games by a combined 25 points or more that you are probably paying too high of a price and be prepared to see your team struggle to cover an overinflated point spread. For 2024, four teams have met the 2-0 criteria for outscoring teams by 25 points or more in the first two weeks, the Chargers, Vikings, Saints, and Bills. The Cardinals also have but are 1-1 at this point.

LA CHARGERS (+1.5) at Pittsburgh
MINNESOTA (+2.5) vs. Houston
NEW ORLEANS (-2.5) vs. Philadelphia
BUFFALO (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville

Other than Bills-Jaguars, these aren’t the usual prices you’ll typically see regarding prolific undefeated teams after two weeks, so we’ll see how that affects the system.  That Eagles-Saints game has now come up in three of the six systems, with two of them suggesting Philadelphia is the play for Sunday, at least from a point spread perspective. The Vikings also look very tough to fade after two weeks, especially with the Texans having won a pair of close games so far. The Chargers and Steelers have been nearly equally dominant defensively in the early going, and in my opinion that game is a toss-up. If any of these systems is a tough one to swallow as a bettor, this would be it. No one has ever said winning consistently at sports betting was easy, have they?

For more NFL Week 3 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 3 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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