NFL Week 3 Early Best Bets from Mike Somich:
After a wild Week 1 where Unders ruled the day, we have our Week 2 lines out. If you want to get a full rundown of the Week 1 reactions and early Week 2 bets, make sure to check out Sharp Money, a podcast that will drop every Monday morning and Thursday afternoon!
Before we look at Week 3, let’s see how our Week 2 bets are doing.
Early Week 2 plays in-pocket
Jacksonville vs. Cincinnati Over 49.5
This reopened at 50.5 and is back to 49.5, so we are not ahead of the market here. We will see how it closes.
Tampa vs. Houston Under 46.5
We crushed the market here. This reopened at 44.5 as expected and has been bet down to 42.5, so we will have multiple points of closing line value here.
Early Week 3 plays
Atlanta (-1.5, 45.5) vs. Carolina
The Falcons have a Week 2 matchup against the Vikings on Sunday Night Football, where they are installed as 4.5-point dogs, and the Panthers head to Arizona in Week 2, where they are 6-point dogs. After watching the Week 1 film on Carolina, I’m very concerned about their offense. Tet McMillian will be good, but he is not a WR1 in the league yet, and Legette is not ready to set up. That leaves the Panthers without weapons for Bryce Young, who did not look good in Week 1 versus a suspect Jacksonville squad.
The Falcons outplayed the Bucs, but lost at home leading into Week 2.
Of these two teams, it’s much more likely the Falcons play above expectation in Week 2 than the Panthers. If we see anything like the Week 1 performance in Week 2 from Bryce Young, this number will be out to 3 or more. Let’s lock in the Falcons.
Week 3 Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons -1.5
Detroit vs. Baltimore (-5.5, Total 51)
Here’s another favorite I want to lock in early since this has a good chance to get to or cross through 7 by next week. The Lions were awful in Week 1 against the Packers; maybe that was the Packers being a truck, but it looked like the Lions missed the OC, DC and assistant coaches that left town in the offseason. The offensive line has gone from one of the best in the league to a borderline weakness. I would not be surprised if Ben Johnson has something special dialed up for them this weekend as a dog, and if the Bears put a scare into the Lions, the market will adjust.
The Ravens, on the other hand, get Cleveland at home in a cushy spot. Even with a sleepy effort, the market will not move them much. There is only one direction this line can go, so let’s snap it up before it moves.
Week 3 Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens -5.5
