Survivor
Sweats are nothing new to Survivor players, but having nearly all of them fall in favor of the most popular teams feels like the exception, notGamblers are a pessimistic lot, so all of us are wondering when the other shoe will drop in Survivor pools. Maybe it will be Week 3 Survivor, as favorites have taken care of business at an extremely high rate for a while now and, more importantly, early in the 2025-26 NFL season.
To this point, only 9.36% of Circa Survivor entries are out. Last year, nearly 73% of the field had been eliminated through two weeks. Since the contest started in 2020, the second-lowest percentage of eliminations through Week 2 was 26.8%. It isn’t talked about nearly as much as the 2024 season, but the 2022 season saw 67.2% of entries knocked out in the early going.
Favorites of 4.5 or higher are 12-0 to start the season, so we haven’t had any carnage and, in fact, some of the eliminations are because we saw all 32 teams selected in Week 1. Through two weeks, the largest eliminator of entries was the Steelers in Week 2 with 491, or 2.7% of the field. The biggest eliminator in Week 1 was the Patriots with 269, or 1.4% of the field.
A sizable, popular favorite will go down soon. Which one will it be? We’ll have to wait and see.
Some housekeeping before getting into this week’s considerations and pick. I am using Circa Survivor rules (so, Thanksgiving and Christmas are their own weeks) and will treat this like an actual Survivor entry until I pick a loser. Even then, I still didn’t double up on a team last season and try to keep in mind which teams contestants are likely to have so I can provide relevant, applicable suggestions.
Also, I’ll be implementing some tools from our pals over at PoolGenius, where I am also in their PoolGenius Survivor Bowl, including Stormy Buonantony, Matt Brown, Jonathan Von Tobel, Kelley Bydlon, Will Hill, and Ben Stevens, as well as several other sports betting media members.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks.
Good luck this in Week 2, fam!
Week 3 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Buffalo Bills (-11.5) over Miami Dolphins
This might be the game that gets Mike McDaniel fired. It honestly seems too easy to use Buffalo this week, right? Short week, decent travel, a healthy Josh Allen. The Bills have scored 71 points and Miami has scored 35. Both defenses have similar per-play numbers against, but Buffalo had that Week 1 shootout with the Ravens. The Dolphins got embarrassed by the Colts and lost at home to the Patriots.
But, this is the “art and science” of Survivor. Consider the look-ahead lines for Week 4 per DraftKings. The biggest favorite is the Bills at -14.5 against the Saints. Others in consideration are the Patriots (-6) vs. Panthers, Texans (-6.5) vs. Titans, Lions (-10.5) vs. Browns, Chargers (-5.5) at Giants, Rams (-5.5) vs. Colts, Broncos (-6.5) vs. Bengals.
Well, a lot of entries used the Broncos in Week 1. The Lions have to be held back for Thanksgiving and Christmas, since you want as many options as possible if you have Circa Survivor rules. Personally, I’m not eager to back either the Patriots or Texans, despite those near-touchdown spreads.The Colts have played really well and the Chargers are traveling east for an early kick.
So, the question becomes, do you trust a team next week more than you would the Bills? If the answer is no, and the Lions aren’t an option based on the rules of your contest, then I think you have to save them.
Using Circa Survivor rules, the Bills are 86% to win this week per PoolGenius – they are greater than 80% each of the next three weeks and 77% or higher four more times.
Green Bay Packers (-7.5) over Cleveland Browns
The two best defenses in the NFL by yards per play come together here. There are a few key differences, though. The first is that the Browns have allowed 27 more points. The second is that the Browns have not forced a takeaway yet and are -4 in TO margin, while the Packers are one of six teams entering this week without a giveaway,
Once again, the holidays are a factor here, as the Packers play at Detroit on Thanksgiving. Of course, they looked dominant against Detroit in Week 1, but I can understand not wanting to save them that long given the age-old revenge spot and all of the other storylines that go along with that game.
Per the PoolGenius season planner for Circa Survivor, the Packers are the top choice in Week 9 at 83% against Carolina. They are 75% to win this week against Cleveland, so this may not be the optimal time to take them, and you also have to consider Thanksgiving. Frankly, I don’t think I’ll want to take them on Thanksgiving and Baltimore looks rather nice now with Cincinnati and the Joe Burrow injury, so I honestly don’t hate using them here. They’re not my top choice, but I don’t think it’s an egregious decision by any means. It’s just that if Jared Goff gets hurt, well, we saw in the preseason what was behind him.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) over New York Jets
This is a hard one for me because you may not find a better spot to take the Bucs. Yes, they are dealing with cluster injuries on the offensive line, including the loss of Cody Mauch. However, unless you are planning on waiting until Week 14 at home against the Saints (or Week 8 at the Saints), there won’t be any great opportunities to use them. And given that they’re already hurt to the degree that they are, what if it gets worse?
I keep preaching this point, but it is very relevant – you have to take 18 (or 20) of the 32 teams. The Bucs are one of the league’s better teams, certainly above average. So, if you want to use them, you might have to do so in a slightly uncomfortable position. They are not a holiday team. Justin Fields is out with a concussion, so it will be 36-year-old Tyrod Taylor at the helm with all of 33 pass attempts to his name over the last two seasons.
I’ll be honest – I’m very, very tempted to take the Bucs here. I don’t think that they are the safest pick on the board, but I do think that you could make a case for them as the best pick given all of the other factors.
NFL Week 3 Survivor Pick
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) over New Orleans Saints
Alas, my pick this week is the Seahawks. The Bucs do have some redeeming qualities, but those OL injuries against what should be a decent Jets defense with a QB in Baker Mayfield who likes to play like a Crash Test Dummy is concerning enough. Plus, let’s be honest, the Seahawks don’t have a spot better than this.
First of all, this is their biggest favorite role for the remainder of the season barring injuries. In this game, the Seahawks are 75% to win.. In fact, PoolGenius doesn’t have them with a win probably higher than 61% in any other game and their two most likely victories are road games, at Tennessee and at Carolina. Their next highest win expectancy at home per their tools is 58% (Arizona).
This is the first outdoor game for the Saints this season. Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak was the OC for the Saints last season, so he knows their personnel well, even if things have changed under Kellen Moore. Speaking of Kubiak, I thought he had a great plan with Sam Darnold and the offense against the Steelers and Kenneth Walker III looked excellent. A good ground game can help take the air out of the ball in the second half and that’s exactly what I expect Seattle to be able to do.
NFL Week 3 Survivor Pick: Seahawks
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