NFL Week 4 Early Best Bets from Mike Somich:
If you are looking for a recap of the Week 2 action with early bets in Week 3, make sure to check out Sharp Money! All the Week 3 bets will be on the Thursday podcast, so make sure to subscribe!
Before we look at Week 3, let’s see how our Week 2 bets are doing:
Week 2 Recap
The Play – Jacksonville/Cincinnati Over 49.5
This closed at 50.5 and was a winner!
The Play – Tampa Bay/Houston Under 46.5
This closed at 42.5 and was a winner!
Nice to start out 2-0 with 5 points of closing line value!
Early Week 3 plays
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Carolina
We nailed this one. The Falcons reopened -3.5 and the line is out to -5.5 or -6, so we have a ton of value here.
Baltimore Ravens -5.5 vs. Detroit
This re-opened at Ravens -6, but it’s been Lions money moving the number to -5 or -5.5, so no real edge here.
Early Week 4 plays
Carolina vs. New England (-6, 46.5)
Let’s look to the Under here for a couple of reasons. First, DraftKings is off market a point, so it’s likely we will get the best of the closing line.
This is also a tough spot for the Panthers offense. Their offensive line suffered two season-ending injuries last weekend and, while this week’s total has adjusted, next week has not. There is not much skill on this Panthers offense, and there is no talent waiting in the wings.
The Patriots will try to run the ball and control the clock in this game, which they should have success doing. They may have Christian Gonzalez back at CB1 here as well.
The Bet – Carolina/New England Under 46.5
Seattle vs. Arizona (-2.5, 43.5)
This is the first Thursday night game to hit the picks for me, and it’s a matchup I loved last year and continue to want to play. The Seahawks went 2-0 straight up vs the Cardinals last year, and the defense specifically has a lot of success. In those two games, the Cards averaged just 12 points.
Seattle comes into this game off an easy spot at home vs. New Orleans, while the Cards have to travel to San Francisco and play in division.
I generally think the market is high on Arizona, and that could be corrected in a big way this weekend if they lose. It’s unlikely this touches 3 unless there is an injury or the Seahawks lay an egg, so let’s lock in what should be the best number all week.
The Bet – Seattle Seahawks +2.5
