NFL Lookahead Lines:

You’ll notice several early Week 4 numbers on the move since before the season started. Some of those are due to injuries, and others are due to the unrecognizable sport we’re watching two weeks into the season. I’ll let you examine the numbers before digging into the final Sunday slate in September. 

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The following are current Week 4 NFL numbers posted at DraftKings:

Week 4 Thursday Night Football

  • Cowboys (-7, 43.5) at Giants

Week 4 Sunday NFL Games

  • Bengals (-7, 43) at Panthers
  • Rams at Bears (-2.5, 42)
  • Broncos at Jets (-7.5, 38)
  • Steelers at Colts (-1, 41)
  • Saints at Falcons (-1, 46)
  • Jaguars at Texans (-5.5, 46)
  • Vikings (-1.5, 40) at Packers
  • Eagles (-1, 47) at Buccaneers
  • Patriots at 49ers (-9.5, 41)
  • Commanders at Cardinals (-4.5, 49.5)
  • Chiefs (-4, 43.5) at Chargers
  • Browns (-1, 39.5) at Raiders

Week 4 Sunday Night Football

  • Bills at Ravens (-1.5, 45.5)

Week 4 Monday Night Football doubleheader

  • Titans at Dolphins (-1.5, 39.5)
  • Seahawks at Lions (-4, 48.5)

Your biggest point spread moves since the preseason:

  • Cowboys were -4.5 at the Giants
  • Atlanta was -4.5 at home vs. New Orleans
  • Green Bay was -4.5 at home vs. Minnesota (Jordan Love injury)
  • Jets were -6 vs. Denver
  • Texans were -3.5 vs. Jacksonville
  • Bengals were -5 at Carolina
  • Cardinals were -2 at home vs. Washington
  • 49ers were -11.5 vs. New England
  • Ravens were -3 vs. Buffalo
  • Dolphins were -6.5 hosting Tennessee (Tua’s injury)
  • Lions were -6 vs. Seattle

Your biggest moves on totals:

  • Rams/Bears: 47
  • Vikings/Packers: 45
  • Steelers/Colts: 44.5
  • Broncos/Jets: 42.5
  • Bengals/Panthers: 46
  • Commanders/Cardinals: 45
  • Patriots/49ers: 45
  • Browns/Raiders: 43.5
  • Chiefs/Chargers: 49
  • Titans/Dolphins: 46

It didn’t take long for many of these numbers to change from the summertime to the Tuesday before Week 3 of the regular season. The sport as a whole has a different look and feel to it than most people anticipated. Kickers converted 73 field goals in Week 2 – an NFL record. The previous record was 69 set in Week 15 of the 2016 season. Oh, by the way, they kicked 68 field goals in Week 1 this year! 

The league has only produced 69 passing touchdowns this year, which isn’t so nice. That’s down from 86 through two games last year, 105 the year before, 110 in the two prior seasons. Passing yards per game are also way down across the board. Hence, some of these totals moved five or six points. You can also factor serious injuries into that equation as well. 

 The question is when will the league regress back to the mean? Will Week 3 produce higher scoring games making some of the Week 4 totals go up as a result? 

Onto the games…

The Colts are -1 in Week 3 at home to Chicago. The Colts are -1 in Week 4 at home to Pittsburgh. Huh? I am not exactly super high on the Steelers in general but how do they have the same power rating as the Bears? The Steelers could be in a war this week with the Chargers, but that defense could make it ugly for Anthony Richardson next week. Indy is getting gashed on the ground. Justin Fields won’t have to do much. Steelers here all day for me. 

I don’t disagree with the current number on the Philadelphia/Tampa Bay game. But the Eagles are now dogs on the road at New Orleans this week. The Superdome will be fired up unlike it has been for a Saints game in years. What if the Saints are legit and take care of business? The Buccaneers, despite several injuries, are touchdown favorites at home against the Broncos in Week 3. The point spread could easily flip through the moneyline if the Buccaneers handle the Broncos, and the Saints beat the Eagles. The question is then how high? I’d say -3 seems unlikely, but you’ll recall how ugly it was for Philly in Tampa last year in the playoffs. 

Of all the totals that have moved, I’ll go with a primetime matchup that has only dropped a couple of points. Baltimore is averaging 417.5 yards per game (1st in the NFL), 6.1 yards per play (6th), 23 first downs per game (T4th), and they’re running a play every 27.6 seconds (also T4th in the league). The Ravens are also allowing 26.5 ppg (5th worst) on defense, and it appears as if the offseason defections are having a negative impact. The Bills defense got lit up in Week 1 by the Cardinals, and Tua got hurt in Week 2. That unit has also had key injuries. Two of the better QBs will be facing off with at least a few questions on the opposing defenses. I’ll go Over 45.5.

For all of our NFL Week 3 content, click here.

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