NFL Survivor Picks

Is this the craziest season in NFL Survivor history? It certainly seems that way. The biggest underdog of the week has won outright in each of those games. Over 95% of the Circa Survivor field is out after starting with 14,266 entries and your personal Survivor pool probably looks about the same.

The Year of the Underdog has been miserable for most, but those that are still left standing have gained tremendous equity with their positions. Every favorite seems like a potential landmine this season, but there has to come a point where regression to the mean occurs and things do stabilize a little bit. The beauty of still being alive is that 29 of the 32 teams are still available and you have ample flexibility going forward.

 

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The giant rash of injuries around the league is certainly cause for concern and renders some teams unusable right now, but it also means that you could have some decent teams left down the line as players get back in the mix.

There are some obvious and not-so-obvious teams to consider here in Week 4.

Check out the helpful NFL Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em tools over at PoolGenius, which will be a tremendous help to you moving forward now that so much equity has been gained if you are still alive.

Week 4 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider

San Francisco 49ers (-10.5) over New England Patriots

The 49ers are clearly the top consideration this week and may very well be the best pick. They are the biggest favorite on the card, not that it has mattered, and this is likely to be their biggest favorite role of the season, as the schedule stays consistently tough throughout.

Something does seem off with the Niners, who weren’t as good as the 23-17 score would indicate two weeks ago against the Vikings and gave one away to a Rams team without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

That said, the Patriots just had 2.9 yards per play and 139 total yards of offense last week against the Jets. They were 2-of-11 on third down and you have to wonder if the calls for Drake Maye are getting stronger as the season devolves into what we all expected. And, while the 49ers are 1-2 and have those two recent losses, they’ve scored on nearly 52% of their possessions and have outgained the opposition by over 250 yards, averaging better than six yards per play.

The defense should get a respite and be able to get on track a little bit against the hapless Pats, as the Niners have allowed 6.1 yards per play and rank 30th in net pass yards per attempt against. This feels like a get-right game.

PoolGenius has the 49ers as the heaviest favorite to win at 80%.

Houston Texans (-6) over Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars appear to be in freefall mode. After opening the season with a respectable 20-17 loss to the Dolphins, they’ve lost at home to the Browns and got blown out by the Bills in a 47-10 laugher. Doug Pederson’s seat is not quite as hot as the Seventh Level of Hell, but it’s getting there. And, hey, outside of his one Super Bowl season with the Eagles, he’s been mediocre at best.

Trevor Lawrence is regressing and the offensive line has been downright bad. The injuries in the secondary are not ideal with a matchup against CJ Stroud looming. They certainly weren’t good last week against Josh Allen.

The Texans, like the Niners, seem to be in a bounce back spot off of that pitiful Vikings loss. Also, maybe the Vikings are just good. We know that the Texans should be good and Stroud won’t be facing an evil genius like Brian Flores here. 

But, the Texans have a pretty extensive injury list of their own, with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dameon Pierce, and Joe Mixon all questionable late in the week.

The Texans are actually sixth on the win probability list at 65% at PoolGenius this week.

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Los Angeles Chargers

The honest truth is that you could consider taking the Chiefs just about every week. This one is no different, as they are among the biggest favorites on the card against the Chargers. Justin Herbert wants to play, but Justin Herbert probably should not play, which would leave Taylor Heinicke in the driver’s seat. 

This line did fall down to the key number of 7 with a fairly promising Herbert update. Frankly, the Chargers are better off going with a dude that they know is healthy, but I digress. The Chiefs really haven’t looked the part, despite being 3-0, as they’re maybe four of five plays away from being 0-3. The Ravens would have gone for two after Isaiah Likely’s TD reception. The Bengals were two seconds away from avoiding a PI call that decided the game. The Falcons were inside the 15 with a chance to win last week.

Good teams find ways to win and the Chiefs are obviously a very good team. I still think there are safer places to use them, even though I’d be surprised if they lost.

PoolGenius ranks KC third in win probability this week at 75%.

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) over Washington Commanders

It is a short week with long travel for rookie QB Jayden Daniels and that is typically a suboptimal situation. Daniels had his coming out party on Monday Night Football against the Bengals, but remember, this offense failed to score any TD the week prior against the Giants.

Arizona has played better than their 1-2 record would indicate, as they let a big lead slip away against the Bills in Week 1 and humiliated the Rams in Week 2. They’ve lost two close ones and have one blowout win, so their point differential stands out quite loudly as a team with a losing record.

The Commanders defense is quite bad and the Cardinals have a good offense. They’ve scored on their first possession in all three games, as I wrote about in this week’s First TD Scorer article. They’re not the shiniest favorite, but might be the best one based on the situation and matchup.

PoolGenius has the Cardinals at 62% to move to .500.

NFL Week 4 Survivor Pick

New York Jets (-7.5) over Denver Broncos

The Jets were -6.5 last Thursday and barely broke a sweat in the win over the Patriots. Now they get the “half-bye” to take on the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix. It is a back-to-back road game situation with some decent travel for Denver after beating the Buccaneers last week. What stands out to me here is that the win over Tampa Bay did  nothing to impact or influence this line. The Jets were -7.5 in the lookahead markets and that’s where they are now.

Denver’s win over Tampa Bay was surely more impressive than New York’s win over New England, but the market didn’t budge. Context clues are important in the betting world and I think that’s a big one regarding this game.

The Jets have a great defense. They might have a great offense if Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy. Denver has only mustered 4.6 yards per play on offense. The Broncos have played extremely well on defense to this point and that’s what may keep them in the game. They’re still the only team without a passing touchdown and I just don’t think they can score enough to pull the upset here.

The Jets are listed at 76% to win this week per PoolGenius, second to the 49ers.

NFL Survivor Pick: New York Jets

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