Survivor
It finally happened. We had our first big elimination of the season for Survivor pools and even got a second one that was pretty significant. So, Week 4 Survivor picks are going to be fewer in number, but no less important for those who are still standing. If the Packers and Falcons didn’t trip you up last week, you’re probably still in very good shape.
For those in Circa Survivor, like myself, we all complain to our partners or to anybody who will listen about the holiday weeks, which are the biggest wrinkles and are constantly on your mind. Last week, though, it might have saved some of us, as Green Bay’s game on Thanksgiving meant that many held them back just to be safe. Still, over 13% of the field was knocked out by the Browns and almost 1,200 entries fell victim to the Panthers.
The three most popular picks still won, so it’s likely that your pool continues to be overflowing with contestants. And this week, it sure looks like we have a pretty obvious pick to make.
Some housekeeping before getting into this week’s considerations and pick. I am using Circa Survivor rules (so, Thanksgiving and Christmas are their own weeks) and will treat this like an actual Survivor entry until I pick a loser. Even then, I still didn’t double up on a team last season and try to keep in mind which teams contestants are likely to have so I can provide relevant, applicable suggestions.
Also, I’ll be implementing some tools from our pals over at PoolGenius, where I am also in their PoolGenius Survivor Bowl, including Stormy Buonantony, Matt Brown, Jonathan Von Tobel, Kelley Bydlon, Will Hill, and Ben Stevens, as well as several other sports betting media members.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks.
Week 4 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
New England Patriots (-5.5) over Carolina Panthers
Carolina’s 30-0 win over Atlanta was as misleading as it gets, so it isn’t all that surprising to see them lined as a decent underdog against the Patriots. New England has not lived up to preseason expectations thus far, but the market believes that they are decidedly better than the Panthers and I don’t think it’s all that hard to argue.
The argument this week for New England is pretty simple. I keep harping on this point in an effort to hammer it home, but it is extremely relevant. You have to take 20 of the 32 NFL teams if you have Circa Survivor rules and 18 of the 32 if you don’t. Finding the best spot for an average or better team heightens your chances of making it to the end.
PoolGenius has the Patriots at a nice 69% win probability this week. That is their highest of the season, even accounting for Week 13 against the Giants and Week 18 against the Dolphins. Of course, when the time comes, those might be spots with a higher win expectancy, but will you make it that far? Do you take them now or hope that everything aligns later? Personally, they’re not close enough to the best option this week, so I’m moving on.
Denver Broncos (-7.5) over Cincinnati Bengals
For those who didn’t use Denver in Week 1 against Tennessee, here’s another spot to back the Broncos. It seems that life without Joe Burrow might be tougher than we all thought, as the Bengals got bombarded by the Vikings and Carson Wentz last week. It is worth mentioning that Bo Nix grades as one of the worst QBs in the NFL thus far and Denver’s defense has not been anywhere close to as good as we expected.
Nevertheless, the Bengals are in a pretty bad way right now. The defense stinks, their MVP-caliber QB is out, and Trey Hendrickson never really wanted to be there. The vibes are less than immaculate. Meanwhile, Denver has all the incentive in the world to right this ship in a hurry because the Chargers look awesome and the Chiefs don’t, so this is a rare year in which somebody has a legitimate shot to win the AFC West without Patrick Mahomes on the roster.
Denver is 76% to win per PoolGenius – their highest remaining win expectancy. For those who didn’t use them against the Titans, they are a very viable selection.
Detroit Lions (-10) over Cleveland Browns
I know we’re all thinking it. There’s no way that the Browns can do this again, right? Well, they’ve been playing some very spirited defense, well enough on that side of the ball to offset how pathetic and putrid the offense has been.
The Lions struggled in Week 1 against Green Bay, but they’re firing on all cylinders now, posting two very impressive point and yardage totals in the last two weeks against the Bears and Ravens. The X’s and O’s don’t matter much here, as the game speaks for itself. However…
The Lions play on both holidays, so you have to save them if you’re in Circa Survivor or a similar contest. If you are not, they do still have five games with a win probability north of 70% per PoolGenius, including 84% in Week 12 against the Giants. Because I’m “playing” with Circa Survivor rules, they are not my pick, but if you are not, they’re obviously an option.
Buffalo Bills (-15.5) over New Orleans Saints
This is the week that I had circled for Buffalo. As it turns out, they got their scare last week against the Dolphins in a spot where they were a popular Thursday night pick. This spot seems substantially safer, as they’re on extra rest against a Saints team playing back-to-back roadies off of getting embarrassed in Seattle.
But, I am making the calculated decision to hold them back. First, the Bills are favored in every game the rest of the way and do not play on either holiday, so they are a safety net. Second, next week is on my mind. As I’ve said a million times, yes, you have to go 1-0, but you also have to plan to go 18-0 or 20-0. Next week’s top option is probably Baltimore, who plays on both holidays. Furthermore, Detroit is the next best option, at least per PoolGenius, and they play on both holidays. Next is Arizona and I used them already. Philly could be popular next week, but they play on Christmas.
What it comes down to is if you use Buffalo this week, then the options are taking the Colts on a against the Raiders or the Vikings in their second straight Europe game against Cleveland. I think both are very reasonable options. Are they better than Buffalo in primetime against New England? No. Are the Texans over the Titans a better option this week than any non-Bills pick next week? I think so.
NFL Week 4 Survivor Pick
Houston Texans (-7) over Tennessee Titans
I understand the reservations with taking an 0-3 team with a bad offensive line. It is a very fair and justifiable position to take. However, according to PoolGenius, the Texans have a win probability north of 60% just two other times this season. For Week 4, they are at 75%, fourth behind the Broncos, Lions, and Bills.
While CJ Stroud continues to run for his life, this Houston defense is still very good. That might be all it takes against Cam Ward and an offense with no vertical threat. Ward’s Intended Air Yards (IAY) per NFL Next Gen Stats is 7.8. His Completed Air Yards (CAY) is 4.4. Only Baker Mayfield has a larger Average Air Yards Differential.
So, Ward is just throwing the ball up at times and hoping for the best, while completing nothing with any explosive qualities. The Titans have averaged 3.6 yards per play and allowed 6.1 yards per play. If Houston doesn’t show up and perform well here, they’re on the “dead to us” list for remaining Survivor players as far as I’m concerned. If they do what they’re supposed to do, you advance and save some much stronger teams for the future.
Week 4 NFL Survivor Pick: Texans
Teams used so far: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks
Follow the link for the rest of our NFL Week 4 content.
