Week 5 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen

Week 5 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:

Had my first losing week of the season for my NFL Best Bets in Week 4, going 3-4-1 ATS. However, if that’s the extent of my “losing,” I can certainly live with it. I elected for favorites for the most part last weekend, and in a season of dog domination, perhaps we weren’t quite ready for that just yet. We have a nice set of games for Week 5 to kick off the October action, and I will take an 18-14-2 ATS (56.3%) mark out of September. In any case, after pouring through a loaded VSiN NFL Analytics Report, I have come up with this set of Best Bets for the coming weekend.

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Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. (AMZN)

If you caught VSiN’s Bill Adee’s fabulous newsletter on Wednesday morning, you would have seen a fantastic graphic detailing just how poorly the public bettors are doing at DraftKings this season. It plays perfectly into the reason why I publish the Betting Splits Systems articles twice a year and qualify every game early in the week with updates on main game days. Hopefully, you have been paying attention. In that newsletter, it showed that handle majorities are 40.5% and number of bets majorities are 46.9% on totals in the first four weeks of the season. Most of the time, the focus is on sides, but public bettors are also bad on totals. 

For Thursday night, these folks are expecting a high-scoring game, but there are actually two nice splits systems indicating the opposite should happen: 1) The magic mark for the supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022 & 2023 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). 2) Call this one the Over trap, but when a supermajority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, (DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week), this majority group has lost big, going just 30-59 (33.7%) over the past two seasons. 

We also have some Atlanta trends that are crazy, as they have seven straight TNF Unders and 13 straight Unders overall in primetime games. This is an important game in terms of the eventual NFC South standings, and I think it will be played somewhat conservatively, just as we saw last week in DAL-NYG. The Bucs have two games at home topping the 30-point mark, but were less effective offensively in their road tilt at Detroit.

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go UNDER 43.5 in the TB-ATL Thursday night contest

Carolina at Chicago

1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Let me get this straight. The Bears were -3.5 favorites at home last week and beat the Rams 24-18. They are the same level favorites this week at home over a Carolina team that is arguably still the worst in football. Am I missing something? Are the Bears missing their offensive or defensive fronts? Is QB Caleb Williams out? It doesn’t look that way, so I have to ask, would the Rams be an underdog against Carolina? This is strange. 

I know a lot of folks think the Panthers are better with Andy Dalton at quarterback, but they still lost last week by 10 to a winless Bengals team at home. This team has not turned a corner. Meanwhile, it seems like the Bears have, as their offense has actually gotten going the last two weeks. The defense is also allowing opponents almost 3 points fewer than they score on average. Essentially, this is now becoming the Chicago team that a lot of optimistic experts projected a month ago. We also have a situation where rookie QB Williams qualifies for two decent systems again: 1) Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 29-8 SU and 26-10-1 ATS (72.2%). 2) Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 57-39 ATS (59.4%).

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: I’ll trust Chicago (-3.5) a second straight week as a home favorite

Baltimore at Cincinnati

1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

It might be hard to believe, but I actually have a 2-2 team sharing the top spot on my power ratings for this week. Let’s face it, the Ravens are not your average .500 team, and in terms of actual on-field talent, could be the best. Here they face a Bengals team that got its first win last week at Carolina. It was thought that Cincinnati was too desperate to lose that game. Well, why were they desperate? To me, its because the Bengals aren’t as good as people projected. 

QB Joe Burrow looks off, the run game is struggling to get going, and the defense has allowed 26 PPG, 4.1 more than opponents typically score. If that happens this week, we’re looking at Baltimore getting into the 30s, a comfortable mark for a road favorite in the NFL. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team has fared well in Cincinnati, going 5-1 ATS in its last six. They are also always one of the league’s best road teams, going 39-20 ATS (66.1%) in road/neutral games since 2017. Baltimore is the better team in this game and should have no trouble moving up and down the field on Sunday. Minus-2.5 is a small price to pay.

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: Let’s lay the -2.5 points with the Ravens

Buffalo at Houston

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

There is heavy money on the road favored Bills as of Thursday, with more than 70% of the handle and bets going that direction. This actually touches on two of the more definitive betting splits systems I offer regularly: 1) Over the past two seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 96-111 ATS (46.4%). 2) Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%). 

Those backing the Bills are obviously not concerned about what happened last week in Baltimore when head coach Sean McDermott’s team was overwhelmed by the Ravens in a 35-10 decision. To me, that game opened up a lot of the concerns I personally had about the Bills in the offseason, notably their weakened defensive front and their inexperienced offensive skill players. It wasn’t nearly as big of a deal in the wins over the likes of the Cardinals, Jaguars, and Dolphins, three of the more unsettled teams in the league so far. They now face a Texans that is a division favorite and has gone 3-1 despite not covering a point spread. Are we finally about to see Houston’s best effort of the season? I wouldn’t doubt it, as this is the first time it feels like they could be motivated by the lack of respect from the oddsmakers. Plus, don’t fret if the Texans become favored as NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 41-15 SU and 32-22-2 ATS (59.3%) run when favored in the next game as well.

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Houston (+1) to get the win here over Buffalo, dog or favorite

Miami at New England

1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

It’s very easy for the betting public to turn on a team quickly when it looks like things have become a disaster. Therefore, I am not surprised to see 2/3 of the money and bets for this week going against Miami, who struggled this past Monday night with its third-string QB under center. What I am surprised about is that 2/3 of the handle and bets have chosen to back the Patriots, who arguably could be struggling even worse than the Dolphins. In NFL divisional games of 2022 & 2023, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 71-100 ATS (41.5%). 

New England is not a team I would like to be laying points with right now. They are only averaging 13 PPG and are scoring 7.7 points fewer than their opponents allow on average. In fact, if you do the math on the offense/defense scoring/allowing stats, I have the Patriots scoring about 17 points in this one. That doesn’t sound unreasonable. I can tell you that you’d be about a 20% bettor if you consistently backed NFL favorites scoring 17 points in a game. 

Miami also fares well in this rivalry, covering the last seven ATS vs. New England. If that weren’t enough, Miami could use a good performance here to get its mind right heading into the bye week: Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 53-21-2 ATS since 2013, 71.6%, +29.9 Units, 40.4% ROI, Grade 73). Head coach Mike McDaniel’s team is also on a 5-2 SU and ATS run in pre-bye week divisional games, 33-21 ATS (61.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015, and 48-35 ATS (57.8%) as an underdog since 2014.

Let’s go Miami (+1) at New England

Cleveland at Washington

1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

There are massive improvement stories every year in the NFL. This is what I wrote about Washington in my season win total wagers released in summer: “Speaking of franchises that needed to wipe the slate clean in 2024, no one needed it more than Washington. Let’s face it, the Commanders were a train wreck last season, winning just four games while allowing 30.5 PPG and enduring the league’s worst turnover differential. All of those stats point to a typical rebound by NFL standards by doing nothing but coming back to the field. The moves the franchise has made in the offseason is the reason I think this team has a chance for the biggest improvement from season to season of anyone.” 

I pointed specifically to improvement at head coach and quarterback. Now, the jury is still out on Quinn, as his defense hasn’t been as good as I thought it might be. However, in the blowout of Arizona last week, they were. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels, on the other hand, appears to be the real deal, an electric player capable of carrying the offense. The Commanders are a far better team right now than the Browns, as illustrated by my Effective Strength Ratings, WAS +4.8, CLE -7.8. In essence, Quinn’s team is performing 12.6 points better right now per game. I know we aren’t used to Washington being favored and taking care of business, but this feels different. The Commanders could be the hot thing right now. And in a rare winning trend for the franchise, Washington is 19-9 ATS (67.9%) when coming off SU win since 2019.

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: Let’s ride the Commanders (-3.5) who appear to have turned the corner

Arizona at San Francisco

4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)

I wrote earlier about how poorly the betting public at DraftKings continues to fare in 2024. That said, there are a couple of specific situations where they’ve done well. Arizona fits into one of those spots: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 56-40 ATS (58.3%). At last check, 75% of the handle, mostly early money, flowed in on the Cardinals. This would be a true contrarian play for head coach Jonathan Gannon’s team to get the cover and/or win, but it is typical for NFL betting and often happens in divisional games where there is enhanced motivation. 

Take a look at this betting system I’ve called “BLOWOUT GAMES ARE RED FLAGS”: NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3 points or more, going 8-20-2 SU but 21-8-1 ATS (72.4%) in their last 30 tries. The Cardinals were blasted by the Commanders last week at home but have proven capable of scoring big points this year on multiple occasions, a good sign for an underdog. Just think, the Patriots put themselves in a position to cover last week at San Francisco with very limited offensive firepower. Arizona is also 26-19 ATS (57.8%) in road/neutral games since 2019, and Arizona is 24-17 ATS (58.5%) as an underdog since 2021.

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: Look for Arizona (+7) to make this one competitive

Dallas at Pittsburgh

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

I know I’ve focused a lot on the betting splits systems this week, but as I indicated in my first writeup, Bill Adee’s newsletter sort of set the tone for the week. For the SNF game between Dallas and Pittsburgh, the majority share of bettors (63%) have gotten behind the Cowboys. 

Normally, the public backing “America’s Team” would have me running for the hills, but in this case, there are actually three positive splits angles that say they are right: 1) In NFL non-conferences games of 2023, DK majority handle bettors were actually quite sharp, as this majority group was 41-29 ATS (58.6%). 2) When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 61-54 ATS (53%) going back to September 2022. 3) In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with less season wins in a 2022 or 2023 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 56-40 ATS (58.3%). 

There are some nice trends to go with it. Dallas has won the last three ATS versus Pittsburgh and owns and 18-12 ATS (60%) mark in road/neutral games since 2021. Pittsburgh is just 20-28 ATS (41.7%) as a favorite since 2018 as well. Then, as we look at what happened recently on Sunday Night Football, home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone 17-12 SU and 11-18 ATS (37.9%) in their last 29 and SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 9-22 SU and ATS (29%) in their last 31 tries against teams off a win. Pittsburgh is off its first loss last Sunday, Dallas is off a win and has three extra days of rest. The Cowboys have a far more capable passing game, too, which is never a bad thing for a dog.

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Dallas +2.5 on Sunday night in Pittsburgh

New Orleans at Kansas City

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Try and try again, and eventually, you will succeed. Well, my strategy for going against Kansas City consistently in the early going is just 1-2-1 ATS, but I can’t abandon it. This team is just so fortunate week in and week out. They are not clicking, yet they continue to win games, 4-0 in fact. They are also facing massive personnel losses. Monday night presents another tough challenge, and the defending champs always get an opponent’s best shot, so I expect New Orleans to do so here. 

The Saints have been one of the league’s most reliable road teams, going 35-18 ATS (66%) in road/neutral games since 2018. They are also 26-17 ATS in their last 43 when coming off a loss, and this past week’s defeat at Atlanta was tough one to stomach. The fact that this game is on Monday night also provides us with some solid system betting info: 1) In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 23-23 SU but 12-32-2 ATS (27.3%) in the last 46. 2) Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 32-31 SU but just 21-40-2 ATS (34.4%) in the last 63 MNF games not matching teams with identical records. If you recall, this hit twice this past Monday. Finally, with the Chiefs heading into their bye week, this system comes into play: Play against any home team heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 21-23 SU and 27-17 ATS since 1996, 61.4%, +8.3 Units, 18.9% ROI, Grade 60).

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: Too much info to go any other way, New Orleans +5.5