NFL Week 5 Early Best Bets from Mike Somich:
If you are looking for a recap of the Week 3 action with early bets in Week 4, make sure to check out Sharp Money! All the Week 4 bets will be on the Thursday podcast, so make sure to subscribe!
Before we look at Week 5, let’s recap Week 3 and see how our Week 4 bets are doing –
Week 3 Recap
The Bet – Atlanta Falcons -1.5
Great CLV going through two key numbers didn’t matter as the Falcons laid an egg on the road.
The Bet – Baltimore Ravens -5.5
The first CLV loss of the year didn’t matter as the Lions covered from start to finish.
Record – 2-2
CLV – 3-1
Week 4 Check In
The Bet – Carolina/New England Under 46.5
We are way ahead of the number here. This reopened at 44.5 and is now down to 43/43.5.
The Bet – Seattle Seahawks +2.5
Nailed this one as well as Week 3 played out as we laid it out, this reopened at Ari -1 and is now Sea -1 to -1.5.
Early Week 5 Plays
Tampa Bay at Seattle (-1.5, 44.5)
Welp, let’s go back to Seattle for two straight weeks! We’ve seen the adjustment in the market from last week to this week, yet this number has not moved. This is also a great spot for Seattle.
The Seahawks play Thursday in Arizona. If they win, it will be another upgrade from the market. I am now on market with this team, and they will get extra rest before hosting a really banged-up Bucs team.
Tampa drew Philadelphia, a very bruising team, on Sunday, and they are already a MASH unit. While they expect to return both Wirfs and Godwin, I am hesitant to say either will be at 100%. The offensive line is a mess, holding everything it could touch on Sunday with zero starters playing the position they expected to in camp. Mike Evans is now out for multiple weeks, and Egbuka was dealing with a groin heading into last week. Now Baker Mayfield finds himself on the injury report as well. This Bucs team is very close to having multiple positions with cluster injuries.
Add the injuries to the Bucs with the rest advantage to the Seahawks, and a possible win on Thursday and a Bucs loss on Sunday, and this crosses 3.
The Bet – Seattle -1.5
That’s all for this week. I looked at a few other games, but I do not want to force having two bets a week. That does not help anyone.
Here are the leans that I was considering
Los Angeles Rams -3 vs San Francisco on Thursday Night – Any additional injuries will push this to 3.5, and I like the Rams side, but you may get a -2.5 if they do not beat the Colts.
New York Giants -1.5 at New Orleans – Saints should get stomped by the Bills, and the Giants’ number could adjust over 2 points if Dart plays well in his first start. However, I’m not running to lay it on the road with a rookie QB in their first start. If you do play -1.5 and you get the adjustment to -3.5, I’d buy back the Saints at +3.5.
Kansas City/Jacksonville Under 44.5 on Monday Night – This was the closest I got to a second play. If it was 45 or 45.5, it would have been included. Jacksonville’s defense has been better than expected, but I did not want to play it with the Chiefs/Ravens game this week that could produce an Over and push this up.
