NFL Week 5 Picks and Predictions from Wes Reynolds:

Let’s take a look at my NFL Week 5 picks and predictions:

 

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Cleveland at Washington (-3.5; 44)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Commanders have been one of the early surprises in the NFL season. Jayden Daniels is the odds-on favorite at -200 to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year, and rightfully so, considering he has an 82.1% completion rate, the highest through the first four games of a season in NFL history.

However, he has faced four bottom-half defenses, including Arizona and Cincinnati, which are two of the league’s worst in pass rush rate per PFF.

Cleveland has had its issues (mainly injuries and inconsistent QB play) in its 1-3 start, but they can still rush the passer and lead the NFL in pressure rate. The Browns also rank second in completion percentage allowed at 58.7%.

Deshaun Watson had arguably his best game last week in Las Vegas and should’ve come out with a win if not for his 83-yard touchdown pass to Amari Cooper being wiped out due to a terrible holding call.

The Browns OL has been ravaged with injuries and Wyatt Teller is already on IR. However, center Ethan Pocic and tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills, plus tight end David Njoku all practiced, albeit on a limited basis, on Friday. The Commanders rank dead last in the NFL in Pass Defense EPA and only 26th in pressure rate, so this has the potential to be a decent matchup for Watson and the Browns offense.

Finally, this is just a sell-high spot on Washington, who won two straight games outright on the road as underdogs and has now come home in a favorite role that they are not used to. Cleveland was laying -3 right before the season, and now this is almost a touchdown move for a Commanders club, while impressive offensively, it has beaten Arizona, Cincinnati, and the Giants with a combined 3-9 record.

A bonus prop in this game is to also fade Commanders TE Zach Ertz. The Browns have played the 5th-highest rate of man coverage thus far in 2024, and Ertz has zero receptions against man coverage this season.

Browns S Grant Delpit held Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson to just 15 yards and Raiders TE Brock Bowers to just 19 yards last week.

Week 5 NFL Best Bets: Cleveland Browns +3.5
Zach Ertz UN 28.5 Receiving Yards

New Orleans at Kansas City (-5.5; 43.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The reigning Super Bowl Champions are one of just two unbeaten teams (Minnesota the other) remaining. However, the Chiefs have not exactly been winning in dominant fashion.

They won the opener vs. Baltimore literally by the length of Isaiah Likely’s toenail. The following week, they defeated Cincinnati at the gun, largely due to a pass interference penalty on 4th and 16. The next week, they won at Atlanta due to the Falcons failing to score points twice inside the red zone in the fourth quarter.

The Saints have come back to earth a bit after a 2-0 start, but they have lost their last two by a combined five points, so they have not had the fortune the Chiefs have had in close games.

New Orleans’ numbers have been good on both sides of the ball. The new Klint Kubiak Saints offense ranks Top 7 in both Pass and Rush Offense DVOA. Furthermore, the Saints are 2nd overall in Defense DVOA and 3rd vs. the pass against a Chiefs club that is running low on pass catchers at the moment.

Week 5 NFL Best Bet: New Orleans Saints +5.5

BEST OF THE REST:
Pittsburgh -135 ML vs. Dallas
Jacksonville -3 (-105) vs. Indianapolis
Carolina +4 at Chicago

TEASER OF THE WEEK:
NY Jets +8.5/Seattle -1

TOTAL OF THE WEEK:
Green Bay Team Total OVER 24.5 (-125)

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