T Shoe Index Team Adjustments After Week 5
There’s generally around a 10-14 point gap between the top team in my ratings and the bottom team; 2023 is shaping up as an anomaly from a power rating perspective, as there is currently a 22 point gap between No. 1 (49ers) and No. 32 (Broncos). Additionally, the top team usually has around a 7.5 (points above average) power rating; this year, there are currently two teams (49ers, Bills) with a double-digit power rating.
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As I’ve mentioned before, the thing to keep in mind is that when I talk about rating changes after a given week, it’s not *only* that week’s games that impacted the rating. All of a teams’ prior opponents’ performances continue to affect that team’s power rating. For example: if the Steelers dominate the Ravens in Week 1, and the Ravens proceed to dominate for the next four weeks, that greatly helps the Steelers’ rating.
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T Shoe Index Upgrades
San Francisco 49ers
Death, taxes and Christian McCaffrey touchdowns. The San Francisco 49ers, already a very highly-rated team in my ratings, throttled the Dallas Cowboys in week 5 and propelled themselves into the No. 1 spot with a four-point power rating increase. I have them favored in every remaining game by no less than 3.5 points – a November trip to Jacksonville – and favored by double digits in six remaining games. Oddsmakers agree with the TSI assessment of San Francisco, as they are now the favorite at DraftKings to win the Super Bowl at +350. Given the historical parity of the league, I don’t know that this price is long enough for me to consider a bet right now.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Speaking of Jacksonville, they spoiled one of my best bets last week by taking down the Bills in London in a performance that was graded 22 points above what the average team would’ve been expected to do, which gave them a three-point power rating increase. The Jaguars are now the No. 5 team in the TSI with a rating of 4.4, which is two points higher than any other AFC South team. They’re currently -105 to win the division, and honestly that’s probably not a bad bet considering the Texans’ and Colts’ injury situations and the general lack of offense from the Titans.
T Shoe Index Downgrades
Washington Commanders
No surprise here; getting smoked by the Bears will land you on the downgrades list pretty quickly. The Washington Commanders and their -28 game grade Thursday night are down four points this week and are now No. 30 in the league in my ratings. The Bears would only be expected to score 20 points on the average NFL team, and the Commanders gave up a whopping 40 to the Justin Fields-led offense. Coupled with the fact that this team is trending the wrong way and the fact that they play in a difficult division with the Eagles and Cowboys, and there are not long enough odds in the world that could make me play any kind of future on them right now.
Chicago Bears
Arguably equally as embarrassing as what the Commanders did is getting shut out by the Saints at home in a game where you’re a favorite. That prestigious distinction belongs to the New England Patriots, who earned a -27.6 game grade for that no-show. This team just really has nothing going for it on either side of the ball, and the questions about Bill Belichick without Tom Brady are only getting louder. Living in a division with the Bills and Dolphins – hell, even the Jets – is only going to make this season more of a nightmare for the Pats. Oddsmakers agree, as they are +4500 to win the division. Hard pass for me.
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