NFL Survivor Picks

What a difference a year makes. The top pick for most Survivor entries did live to fight another day last week, as the 49ers took care of their business against the Patriots, but other popular picks did not. In terms of Circa Survivor, 3.3% of the field is still left standing. That’s 480 entries out of a record 14,266 that were put into the running for the rake-free contest.

Remember that hacky DraftKings Sportsbook commercial with Kevin Hart talking about “overdogs”. Kind of feels like we should bring that term back to describe what has happened this season. Pups kept barking last week with a 10-5-1 ATS mark and the Broncos went on the road and beat the Jets in yet another sizable upset.

 

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This week, we don’t have a lot of sizable favorites, as a lot of games are lined on, around, or under the key number of 3. The pick percentages this week could be a little more spread out, as entries that already burned the 49ers, Seahawks, or Chiefs are going to be left with tough decisions. Then again, every decision feels tough this season.

Check out the helpful NFL Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em tools over at PoolGenius, which will be a tremendous help to you moving forward now that so much equity has been gained if you are still alive.

Week 5 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider

Chicago Bears (-4) over Carolina Panthers

The Bears seem to be improving little by little each week and this should be one of their two biggest favorite roles of the season. They do play the Patriots at home in Week 10, so that may be the best time to use them, especially because other options appear to be pretty limited that week.

Nevertheless, this is still a really bad Carolina defense, even if the offense is improved under Andy Dalton. The Panthers defense has allowed 5.8 yards per play and opponents have scored on over 51% of their offensive possessions. I’d still wait to use Chicago until possibly Week 10, but considerations and decent-sized favorites are few and far between this week.

The Bears are actually the fourth-most likely team to win at 62% per PoolGenius.

Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) over New Orleans Saints

I believe I said last week that you could use the Chiefs every week in a contest like this. Sure, they’re more likely to win some weeks compared to others, but they find ways to win and will have a lot more wins than losses by season’s end. Here we are with a Chiefs team that really hasn’t looked great this season and they’re already 4-0. 

They are actually just +0.1 yards per play and they’ve won a ton of close games in a row, including all four by seven points or less this season. They just win and why wouldn’t we expect them to win on Monday Night Football at home? They’re the third-biggest favorite on the board and the Saints have not looked good the last two weeks in losing efforts.

New Orleans scored 91 points in the first two games and has averaged 18 PPG in the last two.

KC is 69% to win per PoolGenius.

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) over New York Giants

The Giants are a long way from home to play in the 4 p.m. window against the Seahawks. Despite playing pretty well on defense, New York is 1-3 this season and the offense is the culprit, as they have managed just 4.7 yards per play and have only scored on 32.5% of offensive possessions. 

The Giants only have six offensive touchdowns this season and haven’t scored more than 21 points in a game. They also haven’t gained more than 340 yards. Some regression hit the Seattle defense last week, as they gave up 42 points to the Lions, but they do rank fourth in yards per play allowed. They’re surely not facing a Lions-esque offense this week.

This is a lot more like the first three offenses that they faced with the Broncos, Patriots, and Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins. The other thing about the Giants is that while they have played well as a scoring defense, they rank 20th in EPA/play allowed on defense and Seattle has some really dynamic skill players. I think this is a strong consideration.

The Seahawks are 73% to win according to PoolGenius.

NFL Week 5 Survivor Pick

San Francisco 49ers (-7) over Arizona Cardinals

But, the Seahawks are not my pick. No, it is the other big NFC West favorite on the board. The 49ers did what they needed to do last week for Survivor players and many remaining entries will look to them this week. If you are in a Circa Survivor style format, the 49ers are not in play for either Thanksgiving or Christmas, so it’s a good time to take them, especially with Seattle on a short week, Kansas City, and Dallas coming up before the bye.

This is the last very large favorite role for the Niners until they face Chicago in Week 14. Your contest may not even make it that far. San Francisco hasn’t looked as polished as the team that we saw last season or even some of the others from previous seasons, but they are one bad 11-minute stretch away from being 3-1 and viewed in a much different light.

The 49ers entered Week 5 fourth in percentage of drives ending in points at 51.3% and the Cardinals are a bottom-10 team in that regard. Arizona has scored the first touchdown in three of their four games, scored on the first possession in all four of them, and yet they are 1-3. They’re not adjusting well in-game and their defensive deficiencies are getting exposed.

The 49ers are good at scoring first and are good at exposing the other team’s flaws and I think they could very well do both here.

PoolGenius has the 49ers as this week’s likeliest winner at 75%.

Survivor Week 5 Pick: 49ers

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