Survivor
After some rough seas in Week 3, Survivor players had some smoother sailing in Week 4. The Chargers and Packers were kind of popular, but the teams that really had some support took care of business. Now we’re on to Week 5 Survivor Picks and there are a lot of good, but not exactly great, options.
Like I’ve mentioned before, gamblers are inherently pessimistic and the success of favorites to this point has a lot of us wondering when the proverbial dung is going to hit the fan with a really, really big favorite tripping up. That defeatist mentality can actually be one of your worst enemies in Survivor contests because you’ll overthink what’s in front of you or try to pick a team that seems a little “contrarian” or at least not as popular as others.
The goal is still to go 18-0 (or 20-0 in Circa Survivor), but you can only do that if you go 1-0 each week. Outfoxing yourself might not be the best course of action. If a big favorite goes down and you get that 15% or 20% outcome, it is what it is. But, if you take a chance with a team that seems like more of a gamble and lose, the second-guessing will eat you alive.
Before looking at the Week 5 Survivor picks, a little housekeeping. I am treating this article like its own entry and won’t repeat any teams unless I pick a loser. I am also using Circa Survivor rules, so Thanksgiving and Christmas are their own weeks and I will write accordingly on those holidays. Even when I lost last year, which was actually very early on the GD Bengals, I didn’t repeat any teams over the 20 “weeks”.
Also, I’ll be implementing some tools from our pals over at PoolGenius, where I am also in their PoolGenius Survivor Bowl, including Stormy Buonantony, Matt Brown, Jonathan Von Tobel, Kelley Bydlon, Will Hill, and Ben Stevens, as well as several other sports betting media members.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks.
Week 5 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Los Angeles Rams (-9) over San Francisco 49ers
I’ve addressed the mental side of Survivor pools before. I think a lot of us are inherently scared of taking a Thursday night game. They usually feature division rivals and both teams are on short weeks and injuries can play a huge role. Well, this week, the injuries are super one-sided, as Brock Purdy won’t play, so we’ll get The Return of the Mac (Jones) for the visitors. Ricky Pearsall is not playing and neither is Jauan Jennings, so Jones is shorthanded at the skill positions. Nick Bosa’s season is also over.
Personally, I’ll keep the Rams in reserve for Week 9 when they play the Saints, seeing as how that seems like a much stronger spot. But I absolutely cannot fault anybody who wants to avoid a Sunday sweat by hopping on the Rams here. LA is a solid 3-1 to start the season and +1.5 in yards per play differential. Despite all of the Matthew Stafford worries we had entering the season, the Rams passing game is top five in yards, touchdowns, and net yards per pass attempt. They’re a really good team in a really good spot.
PoolGenius has the Rams as the second-most likely winner this week at 79%.
Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) over Tennessee Titans
In the now immortal words of QB Cam Ward, the Titans can best be described as “we ass”. I don’t know how good the Cardinals are, and I already used them in Week 2 for the purposes of this article, but I wouldn’t use “ass” as an adjective to describe them. I do think we can all agree that Brian Callahan probably isn’t head coaching material.
That said, I am glad to have escaped with Arizona when I did. They’ve only mustered 4.6 yards per play this season. While the defense is a top-10 scoring unit, they only have four takeaways in four games and regression is probably coming based on some of their underlying metrics. It is an important lesson to remember that you have to take 18 or 20 of the teams, so the goal is to find the best spot to take them because another opportunity may not present itself.
I mentioned this last week in taking the Texans that the Titans were -2.5 yards per play. Well, they improved to -2.2 yards per play with an okay defensive showing, but the offense remains putrid. Arizona is a great teaser candidate and a Survivor option, but not my favorite one.
The Cardinals are fourth in win expectancy per PoolGenius at 75%.
Detroit Lions (-10.5) over Cincinnati Bengals
To me, this is the toughest decision on the slate. We know that the Lions play on Thanksgiving. That’s just an annual thing. They also play on Christmas. If you don’t have to worry about the holidays in your Survivor pool, then this probably isn’t a decision at all. If you do, then this is a really, really big choice to make.
The Lions are the biggest favorite on the board and the Bengals look atrocious since Joe Burrow went down and Cincinnati’s season effectively ended. Detroit has scored 124 points the last three weeks and Cincinnati’s defense is being exposed for the dumpster fire that we all expected it to be coming into the season. So, this feels like a no-brainer.
But, keeping as many holiday teams as possible is vitally important. We’re still several weeks from Thanksgiving and about 2.75 months from Christmas. Injuries happen. Things happen. Are any of us excited about the Lions vs. the Packers on Thanksgiving based on what we saw in Week 1? Maybe not. What about the Lions at Vikings on Christmas? Maybe, but a division road team against a Vikings team that should have J.J. McCarthy back…that’s a lot to consider. Personally, I’m keeping them in reserve. If the holidays are not on your mind at all, this is probably your pick.
The Lions are PoolGenius’ No. 1 pick at 84%.
Indianapolis Colts (-7) over Las Vegas Raiders
This is my decision in Week 5. Do I take the Colts and save the Bills or roll with Buffalo in a really good spot. The Colts host the Titans in Week 8. Certainly that seems like the spot to take them, but I know we’re all thinking along the same lines. When does this fall apart for Daniel Jones? The Colts defense is 28th in Success Rate against, even though they’ve played a pretty sad schedule thus far.
If the offense starts to fade, then the Colts are going to be a team that you want to use sooner rather than later. To be fair, I don’t hate taking them next week at home against the Cardinals. I’ve already outlined my worries with Arizona. Given that there are two spots in the next three weeks that feel worthwhile, I think I’m going to hold on to them, despite the 73% win expectancy per PoolGenius.
The Raiders are not off to a good start at all. They’re -4 in turnover margin, lead the league in interceptions, and have been the worst team in the league at field position, 32nd in average starting field position and 32nd in average starting field position for opponents. With all the giveaways, the Raiders are 32nd in Scoring%. The fact that the Colts should win the turnover battle is some solace. I was very, very close to taking them…
NFL Week 5 Survivor Pick
Buffalo Bills (-7.5) over New England Patriots
Buffalo rides into this game with an undefeated record and had a pretty easy go of things against the Saints, who made it interesting for a while, but ultimately ran out of fuel in the second half. Buffalo spent years getting beaten by the Patriots during the Tom Brady years, so they’ve tried to exact revenge whenever possible. I don’t know if the fact that it’s a primetime game matters, but a team like Buffalo probably wants to look as good as possible.
I didn’t take the Bills against the Saints. I didn’t take them on the road against the Jets. They don’t host the Jets until Week 18 or the Bengals until Week 14, when Burrow could theoretically be back, if he wants to be. Buffalo is favored in every game moving forward, so they are a consideration on a weekly basis when you really think about it.
But, I’m taking them as the pick here. Buffalo can open up a three-game lead in the division and basically have it under lock and key. I do think New England is a decent team, but this is a good time to fire on the Bills before the schedule difficulty ramps up.
The Bills are 78% to win per PoolGenius.
Week 5 NFL Survivor Pick: Bills
Teams used so far: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans
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