NFL Week 6 best bets from the T Shoe Index


NFL Week 6 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index

Questions still remain about a lot of NFL teams after a month, which is probably par for the course in a league built on parity, but from a betting perspective it’s been difficult to properly rate teams and expect consistent performances from week to week. 


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Notably, I don’t know what to make of the Jets, who have been as Jekyll-and-Hyde as any team. The Bengals, who finally covered a spread and put some points on the board, are another team that I can’t quite get a pulse on after five weeks. The Bills, who were my No. 1 team last week, went to London and lost to a Jags team that hadn’t looked great thus far. This is both the fun of betting and the infuriating part; nonetheless, let’s see what games my T Shoe Index has identified value on for Week 6.

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Carolina Panthers vs Miami Dolphins (-13.5),O/U 48.5

According to the VSiN betting splits, the Dolphins are receiving over 80% of the bets and handle on this game; in and of itself, is certainly not something that puts me on a bet, but it does get my antennas up that the Panthers are worth exploring more. TSI projects Miami -11.5 here, so we’re also getting good value on the number. I’m sure Miami will score points, but the Panthers have scored in the twenties in two of their last three games, and doing so here with such a big number should be plenty to cover the number. 

Carolina has subtly climbed (relatively) to No. 27 in my power rankings, which still isn’t good, obviously, but they are trending the right way so I have no problem taking a couple of touchdowns with Bryce Young and company against a pretty bad Dolphins defense (No. 28 in TSI). 

The Pick: Panthers +13.5 (play to +13)

Note: would also consider the Panthers team total over 17.5 (+105) if you’re reluctant to back them on the side here.

LA Rams (-7) vs Arizona Cardinals, O/U 48.5

This is a matchup of two offenses that are closer to the middle of the pack than they are top 10 in the TSI offensive ratings, and the Rams defense is firmly in the top 10. TSI projects this game to only total 44.5 points, so we’re getting great value on the number while staying above a relatively-key number of 48. Two of the last three matchups between these teams have gone under the total, and per VSiN’s Steve Makinen, in 2022, when the over was receiving a large majority of the betting handle, those games went under the total 63% of the time. Currently, 89% of the DraftKings handle is on the over in the game. 

Again, betting splits and trends are not resources that would make me blindly bet a game, the number is always the most important thing, but when my TSI projection aligns with these trends, it adds a nice cherry on top of the handicap. In addition to my TSI projections each week, I also run several additional formulas, weighing various factors more and less heavily to attempt to play devil’s advocate against a bet and find a path that the game could deviate from TSI. This total going under was unanimous among all of those formulas, for what it’s worth. 

Additionally, TSI total projections went 10-4 last week with an absolute error of 8.0, which beat the closing line by nearly a point per game, so I’m going to try to ride that wave again this week in hopes that it’s an indication of the model getting a better handle on the pace/efficiency of these teams, even if predicting the ATS performance has been tenuous so far.

Pick: Rams/Cardinals Under 48.5 (play to 48)

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