NFL Week 6 Early Best Bets from Mike Somich:
If you are looking for a recap of the Week 4 action with early bets in Week 5, make sure to check out Sharp Money! All the Week 5 bets will be on the Thursday podcast, so make sure to subscribe!
Before we look at Week 6, let’s recap Week 4 and see how our Week 5 bets are doing.
Week 4 Recap
The Bet: Carolina/New England Under 46.5
The Bet: Seattle Seahawks +2.5
Well, we were way ahead of the market on both games with the Seahawks closing as favorites and the Panthers/Pats total at 42.5. Seattle was in command all game, but made it a sweat late. The Pats are still scoring and the CLV did not matter there.
Record: 3-3
CLV: 5-1
Week 5 Check-in
The Bet: Seattle -1.5
We are in with the best of it once again as the Seahawks reopened at -3 and are trending to -3.5 at most books.
Week 6 Early Bets
Philadelphia (-7.5, Total 42.5) vs. New York Giants
The debut of Jaxson Dart was a success for the Giants, but it came at the cost of Malik Nabers and showed the Giants’ game plan for the early Dart era. It is going to be a lot of running. Dart was happy to take off when the first read was not available, and we saw a steady diet of Cam Skattebo and Devin Singletary.
Combine that with the Eagles’ grind-it-out style that they have featured all season and a Thursday night divisional matchup and everything points to the Under. I expect this to close under 42, so let’s get the best of it now.
The Bet: Philadelphia/New York Giants Under 43.5
San Francisco vs. Tampa Bay (-1.5, 47.5)
Let’s start with what we know: the market does not like the current version of the 49ers. They went from +3 to +6.5 this week versus the Rams on Thursday. Now, the extra rest should help them from a recovery standpoint, but the match versus the Bucs, even if they are healthier, is not a great one.
Tampa is one of the best teams in the league against the run, which means it’s all going to be up to Purdy and whoever he has left to catch passes.
On the other side of the ball, the banged-up Tampa offensive line will not have to worry about Bosa. Tampa should be able to consistently move the football in the air and on the ground. I do not expect the 49ers to be able to score with them.
If the 49ers get trounced on Thursday night, this will move to Bucs -3 even if Tampa loses to Seattle, so let’s lay the short number with the home team.
The Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5
