NFL Lookahead Lines:

So far, so good with reading the market and getting some CLV. Now the results need to start cooperating. Don’t ever let anybody tell you it’s easy to win betting on sports. 

Week 4 results:

 

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– Steelers moneyline +108 at Indy. Closed around -130. Woulda/coulda/shoulda equals a loser.

– Ravens/Bills Over 45.5. Closed 47.5. It landed 45. 

– I thought Tampa Bay could go off as the favorite hosting Philly. They didn’t, but the Bucs still manhandled the Eagles. 

Week 5 bets and/or thoughts:

– I wrote that 42.5 was too low of a total at DraftKings in the Commanders/Browns game. Evidently, I was wrong last week because I found 41.5 at another book. It touched 44 this week and is now 43.5. 

– I didn’t think Dallas should be favored in Pittsburgh, and now they are not. 

– I questioned if Jacksonville should be favored vs. Indy. Dead wrong on that as the Jags are now up to -3. 

– I asked if Houston should be favored over Buffalo. The Bills are now favored in some spots.

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The following are current Week 6 NFL numbers posted at DraftKings:

Week 6 Thursday Night Football

  • 49ers (-3, 47) at Seahawks

Week 6 Sunday NFL Games

  • Jaguars (-1, 42) vs. Chicago in London
  • Browns at Eagles (-6.5, 44)
  • Commanders at Ravens (-6.5, 49.5)
  • Texans (-6.5, 41.5) at Patriots
  • Cardinals at Packers (-5, 49.5)
  • Buccaneers at Saints (-3, 44.5)
  • Colts (-1, 42) at Titans
  • Steelers (-3, 38) at Raiders
  • Chargers (-2.5, 37.5) at Broncos
  • Lions (-3, 52) at Lions
  • Falcons (-3, 44.5) at Panthers

Week 6 Sunday Night Football

  • Bengals (-4.5, 46.5) at Giants

Week 6 Monday Night Football

  • Bills (-1.5, 44.5) at Jets

Week 6 features a couple of “schedule spots” to consider. Think about Seattle playing on Thursday night. It’s the back end of three games in 10 days. The Seahawks played Week 4 Monday night in Detroit, traveled back home across the country to host the Giants in Week 5, and then turn around to play the division rival 49ers on Thursday night of Week 6. 

The Jets faced the Monday-Sunday-Thursday schedule to begin the season. They ended up covering at Tennessee in Week 2, and vs. New England in Week 3 – not easy to accomplish as Teams playing their final game of three in 10 days since 1990 were 5-8 straight up and 4-9 ATS per Warren Sharp. The point spread may stay where it is, but this is something to file away. 

New Orleans has a road game on Monday night this week at Kansas City. The Buccaneers will be coming off of Thursday night football in Atlanta. That is some serious rest advantage for Tampa Bay. Maybe the Saints add WR Davante Adams by the time this game kicks off, but I like the Bucs now at +3. 

VSiN’s Steve Makinen shares his NFL Power Ratings on a weekly basis. He currently has Baltimore tied with Kansas City at the top. I saw a list of NFL composite power ratings that also has Baltimore No. 1 overall. I’ve been high on Washington since the preseason (win total o6.5, Jayden Daniels OROY 8/1, etc), but I agree with the aforementioned ratings on the Ravens. They have the No. 1 offensive DVOA (Washington is 2nd), the No. 1 passing DVOA, and the No. 1 rushing DVOA! As incredible as that seems, the Commanders are not that far behind.

The difference is on defense. Baltimore’s DVOA ranks: 9th overall, 7th vs. the pass, and 10th vs. the run. Washington is 30th overall, 30th vs. the pass, and 28th vs. the run. I love watching Daniels lead the Washington offense, but Baltimore is easily the stiffest competition his team will face since a Week 1 drubbing in Tampa. I think the Ravens are short and the total should be in the 50s. 

The Chargers are 4-0 to the Under on the season, staying under by 9.9 points per game (previous totals closed at 40.5, 39, 36 and 42). The Broncos are 3-1 to the Under, staying under by 10.4 ppg (previous totals closed at 42.5, 36.5, 40.5 and 39.5) entering Week 5. Both teams have a top-five defensive DVOA. Both teams are in the bottom 10 in offense. 37 is a key number. I’ll take my chances and bet the Under.

For all of our NFL Week 5 content, click here.

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