Survivor
Is it possible that we’re going to have an “odd” year in Survivor contests? So far, the worst weeks for players have been Week 3 and Week 5, as the Packers and Falcons took out a good number of entries last month and the Rams and Cardinals took out a much larger percentage this past weekend. That makes the Week 6 NFL Survivor picks lower in volume, so long as you are still making them.
The Rams and Cardinals both went down in devastating fashion. A fumble inside the 5-yard-line for the Rams to take the lead with just over a minute left. And, honestly, getting the game to overtime was an extra kick in the crotch given that they got the game-tying field goal and then turned it over on downs on a 4th-and-1 at the 11. Then there were the Cardinals, who went from a 28-6 lead in the fourth quarter to a 22-21 loss with Emari Demercado’s premature celebration and defensive collapse.
That is a microcosm of why these things are so hard. Even favored teams do stupid, unfortunate, unlucky, and inexplicable things. That’s not why last week’s article pick on the Bills lost, as they just got outplayed by Drake Maye and the Patriots. Losing the turnover battle didn’t help. It never does.
But, for those who are still alive, the article will go on. I’ll keep tabs on the teams I’ve used, not repeat any teams, and also try to find the most relevant teams that you likely have at your disposal moving forward. I am using Circa Survivor rules, so Thanksgiving and Christmas are their own weeks and I will write accordingly on those holidays.
Also, I’ll be implementing some tools from our pals over at PoolGenius, where I am also in their PoolGenius Survivor Bowl, including Stormy Buonantony, Matt Brown, Jonathan Von Tobel, Kelley Bydlon, Will Hill, and Ben Stevens, as well as several other sports betting media members.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks.
Week 6 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Eagles (-7) over Giants
Once again, the Thursday Night Football favorite is an option. The Rams couldn’t get the job done against the depleted 49ers. The Giants are missing Malik Nabers and maybe some depth on defense, but that pales in comparison to the wide receiver skeleton crew that the 49ers had. And a backup QB. And they won anyway.
The Eagles have been underwhelming in a lot of ways so far, but PoolGenius does have them as the team with the second-highest win probability at 78% this week. Even if the presence of Jaxson Dart provides some optimism, the Giants did still lose by double digits to the Saints, a team that most Survivor players have picked on already this season.
Truth be told, despite their implied win probability, I really don’t think Philly will be that popular. They’re a Thanksgiving team (Black Friday) so there’s that, along with a collapse against the Broncos. Also, the Eagles have been outgained in all four of their games this season.
Broncos (-7) over Jets
To Jolly Ol’ England we go, as Tottenham Hotspur Stadium hosts the Broncos vs. Jets. Denver’s stunning comeback against Philadelphia might be just what they need to get on track and really start looking like the team that we expected them to be. Well, at least that I expected them to be.
The Jets are the only team in the NFL to not have a takeaway so far this season. Opponents have scored on 53.7% of their possessions, whereas the Broncos have allowed points on 35.1% of theirs, even with just four takeaways. New York has allowed at least 27 points in every game. If that trend holds, Denver’s defense has to be able to hold the NYJ offense under that number.
London games are always a little bit odd, but we do absolutely have one team that is better than the other. Also, Sean Payton has the chance to coach circles around Aaron Glenn. I can’t fault anybody for wanting to go this route. PoolGenius has the Broncos fifth in win probability at 72%.
Steelers (-5.5) over Browns
By now we’ve all seen what the Browns are up against. They will become the first team to come back from playing an international game and face a team coming off of their bye week. The Steelers played in Dublin two weeks ago and knocked off the Vikings, who just beat the Browns in London.
This will be start No. 2 for Dillon Gabriel, who actually looked pretty good across the pond, at least until the play-calling got uber-conservative and everybody worldwide knew when the Browns were going to run and when Gabriel would try to throw. Cleveland absolutely let one slip away and two-time Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski is now under fire.
Pittsburgh keeps just finding ways to win, as they’re off to a 3-1 start, even though Aaron Rodgers has a 4/3 TD/INT ratio and has topped out at 203 yards after his four-touchdown Week 1 effort against the Jets. Situationally, it is a horrible spot for Cleveland, but is it the best time to take Pittsburgh?
Well, PoolGenius only has the Steelers at 65%, with a higher win probability next week at Cincinnati, in Week 11 hosting Cincinnati, and in Week 15 hosting Miami. Given the difficulty of the spot and Mike Tomlin against a rookie QB, I have to think Pittsburgh is a higher favorite than what the tool implies.
Colts (-7) over Cardinals
My biggest regret in several years of being involved in Survivor contests is not taking the Colts last week. Not only was it possible to strike while the iron was hot in case a pipe bursts and cold water pours down in the not too distant future, but something felt off about the Bills the second I posted the article and then shared my input with my partners in Circa Survivor.
Indy is just so good right now. They obviously made the right decision between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson, as they have only turned the ball over three times this season. It is ironic to want to back a Jones-led offense in a close game, but that’s the point we’re at.
Will this be a close game? I don’t know. The Cardinals have played five games this season and they’ve been decided by a combined 17 points. The close wins over the Saints and Panthers haven’t aged terribly well, but they were competitive in losses to the 49ers and Seahawks. Last week’s disastrous finish had to have some sort of hangover effect, not to mention Kyler Murray did not leave that game healthy. And then the front office had to send out an apology letter because Jonathan Gannon got pissed off and yelled at his running back with a solid slap on the arm/chest.
Maybe the Cardinals come out motivated. Maybe I missed the boat on taking Indianapolis and now I have to live with that. According to PoolGenius, the Colts are 74% this week to win, but 83% in two weeks against Tennessee. And that’s why I saved them. Turns out saving teams doesn’t help if you pick the wrong one and that’s the whole point in this contest.
NFL Week 6 Survivor Pick
Packers (-14) over Bengals
Nothing in the NFL is a layup. Maybe we’ll call this a slightly-contested 8-footer. If your QB situation is so bad that you need to trade for Joe Flacco, well, that’s worse than if you have to sign Flacco in free agency. It’s been a rough road for the Ohio NFL teams this season, eh?
Flacco was picked up on Tuesday and is immediately going to start over Jake Browning, who has been a good soldier behind Joe Burrow for the last three seasons. Honestly, he was pretty good in 2023 when he had to fill in, but he has not been anywhere in the realm of good this season outside of when he relieved Burrow against Jacksonville.
The Packers are off of a bye. If you didn’t use them, lose them, and lose your entry against the Browns in Week 3, there’s no reason not to have them available. Obviously the tough thing here if you have Circa Survivor rules or are in that contest is that the Packers are a Thanksgiving team.
You can’t burn any of the three teams – Lions, Cowboys, Chiefs – that play on both holidays. But, I think you can afford to let one of the eight Thanksgiving teams go with such a favorable opportunity to advance. At 2-2-1, this essentially amounts to a must-win for Green Bay given the situation and a bye to figure out their issues probably came at the right time.
Week 6 Pick: Packers
Teams Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Bills
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