NFL Survivor Picks

Normalcy, status quo, whatever you want to call it returned to the NFL last week. Favorites rolled. Road favorites were perfect. It was about as sweat-free of a Survivor week as you can possibly have, as the Ravens, Packers, Texans, Eagles, Falcons, and any other favorite you can think of as having been selected won the game.

We’ve got some big favorites coming up this week and next week, at least according to the lookahead lines, so we’ll see if the NFL is back to normal or not. For those still alive in Survivor pools, and it is not a high percentage at this point, calmer waters are both a blessing and a curse, as staying alive is the utmost goal, but you also need some favorites to go down to clear things out for your entry.

 

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Once again, we’ll consult the Survivor tools over at PoolGenius and look at this week’s options before ultimately taking what appears to be the optimal pick for Week 7.

Week 7 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider

Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) over New England Patriots

The degree of difficulty is a little bit higher on this one than most would probably like. After all, the Jaguars largely stink. Yet, they are a very real consideration this week across the pond. Jacksonville played in London last week, albeit at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. They’re at Wembley this week. But, they’ve had the chance to practice and figure some things out, while the Patriots are worried about getting friends and family to the game and, well, who the QB will actually be.

Drake Maye is banged up and had an MRI on his knee on Wednesday. And the truth is, you’re not going to find another chance to take Jacksonville. As I’ve preached in the past, you have to take at least 18 of the 32 teams if your pool goes all the way to the end and 20 of them if you are in Circa Survivor or follow those rules.

It was a different team, but the Jaguars did beat the Bills last season in their second London game. That’s the only data point we have of them playing two games over there in a season, but it was a decent one. Rookie coach, rookie (maybe) QB, Jaguars at “home”. Seems to all line up.

The Jaguars are 70% to beat the Patriots per PoolGenius.

Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) over Las Vegas Raiders

This one is really interesting to me. There’s a part of me that feels like the Raiders rally without the huge distraction that was Davante Adams and play well. On the other hand, the very desperate Rams are off of a bye and look like they’ll be getting Cooper Kupp back.

I think there’s an enormous coaching mismatch here with Sean McVay and Antonio Pierce. And the Rams should start to look more like the offense we thought they’d be as they get healthier. There’s a case to be made that you wait to use the Rams until the offense is healthy and they can be more like the team that some people (cough) took to win the NFC West. I didn’t really expect them to lose Kupp and Puka Nacua right away and they’ve suffered as a result.

They’ve got Vikings, Seahawks, Dolphins, (at) Patriots, Eagles, Saints, Bills, 49ers, Jets, Cardinals, Seahawks left. So, yeah, a healthier roster seems like a safer play, but do any of those options feel more palatable than this one? Probably not. I think it’s so tough this week, not because there aren’t options, but because there are options you are very unlikely to want to take later in the season.

The Rams are 71% to beat the Raiders per PoolGenius.

Buffalo Bills (-9.5) over Tennessee Titans

I will be trying to keep in mind that many good teams have already been picked as I go forward with the article this season. Maybe the Bills have not been picked yet, as we haven’t had a lot of great spots to take them to this point. This sure seems like a great spot to take them. They’ve added Amari Cooper to the mix and are really stepping down in class in a huge way after playing the Ravens, Texans, and Jets.

The Titans are still playing Will Levis, which feels like reason enough to pick against them most weeks. Tennessee has failed to score more than 17 points in four of their five games. While the defense has played really well, 17 points probably won’t cut it against the Bills. Not only that, but when they scored 31 against the Dolphins, they had scoring drives of 21, 19, 27, 70, 11, 27, and 10 yards.

The trick here is deciding if you want to save Buffalo. They play the Patriots twice in the final three weeks of the season. They play the Dolphins in Week 9. Tua may be back by then, though, so who knows. I don’t know that saving them for a better spot makes sense, so if you haven’t used them already, this is a good week. But, I’d rather save a good team and fire with one that is a little less good given all the options in Week 7.

The Bills are 77% to beat the Titans per PoolGenius.

NFL Week 7 Survivor Pick

Washington Commanders (-8) over Carolina Panthers

The Commanders are in some rare air here. They were favored by seven or more twice last season, but you have to go back to 2017 to find the last time it happened prior to that. If this line holds -8 or higher, it’ll be their biggest favorite role since Week 17 of the 2016 season. What a season it has been for Jayden Daniels and the squad.

This is where things get tricky. This is likely their biggest favorite role of the year, though Week 13 against the Titans will come close or possibly exceed that. Also, it’s easier said than done, but the Cowboys are kind of a mess right now and the Commanders could be a Week 12 option. Week 10 against Pittsburgh even seems reasonable.

Like I said, the hardest part for me this week isn’t finding candidates. There are four really good ones. But, figuring out which one to deploy is tough because they’re all good, but the Commanders and the Bills are teams that you could presumably use again. I don’t consider the Jaguars and Rams part of that group. But, they’re also the lowest percentage teams of the group to win and it is not hard to see a path to losing.

Ultimately, the Panthers defense is awful, so that’s why I’m going this route this week, as I can save the Bills, who are the best team of the bunch.

The Commanders have the second-highest win probability per PoolGenius at 76%.

Survivor Pick Week 7: Commanders

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