Survivor
Last week, I posted the question of whether or not we’re going to have an “odd” year in NFL Survivor, seeing as how Week 3 and Week 5 have produced carnage, but even-numbered weeks have been smooth sailing. Well, Week 6 didn’t really have any sizable losses, as the six most popular Circa Survivor teams all won, including the Packers, who were picked by over 50% of the field. So, we move on to Week 7 NFL Survivor picks and see if this is another week of anguish.
One of the ironies of this contest and others like it is that as the weather gets colder, you sweat more and more. As entries fall off and the equity of your entry or entries increases, every game, every decision gets magnified. Some are even starting to take a proactive approach at protecting that increased equity by partnering up with other entries that have different teams and paths available.
Technically, this article Survivor entry “lost” with the Bills a couple of weeks ago, but I’ll still keep chugging along until the end, hopefully without any more of those hiccups. It is in my best interest and your best interest for me to focus on teams that should be widely available to contestants. I won’t duplicate a team and I won’t take a team that many have already taken, like the Packers, for example, who knocked out a bunch of people with their loss to the Browns, but also kept a bunch of people alive with their win last week over the Bengals. What’s the point in writing this if it doesn’t apply to most surviving entries?
Also, please note that I am using Circa Survivor rules, so Thanksgiving and Christmas are their own “weeks”. I will write the article accordingly on those weeks, but also, it means that it will dictate my strategy in this article. If you are just playing a straightforward Survivor contest, the world is your oyster!
Also, I’ll be implementing some tools from our pals over at PoolGenius, where I am also in their PoolGenius Survivor Bowl, including Stormy Buonantony, Matt Brown, Jonathan Von Tobel, Kelley Bydlon, Will Hill, and Ben Stevens, as well as several other sports betting media members.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks.
Week 7 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Steelers (-5.5) over Bengals
It’s a short week and Mike Tomlin gets to go up against a hapless Bengals bunch with Joe Flacco at QB when he was just acquired essentially off the street last week. Pittsburgh doesn’t have an explosive offense and so this one is almost assuredly going to be a sweat if you roll with the Steelers.
Pittsburgh’s recent bye gives them a bit of an advantage here, as Cincinnati is playing for the seventh straight week and they’ve lost four in a row with Jake Browning and Flacco getting the starts. They’ve also allowed at least 27 points in all three of those games. Flacco has Ja’Marr Chase now, but he ranks 32nd in EPA+CPOE Composite (Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Over Expected). Browning was 30th in his three starts. Rodgers is actually 12th in that department.
Rodgers has the lowest number of Air Yards Per Pass per RBSDM, and Steelers are ninth in YAC, the most of the teams that have had their bye weeks already. The Bengals are seventh-lowest in that area. The Steelers defense has been merely average in a lot of areas, but they are a top-10 unit in red zone defense, holding opponents to a 50% TD%. Cincy is the third-worst at 71.4%.
If the Chiefs are among your choices, they play on both holidays. So, the Steelers become a much more valuable team to consider. As great as Tomlin is, his teams are 2-9 SU on the road in Thursday Night Football games, for whatever that’s worth, and have lost four straight, but only one of them as a favorite (last season vs. Browns).
I can’t see them losing here, but there are less risky options, probably. PoolGenius has their win probability at 68%, which is sixth, but four of the six teams ahead of them play on one or both holidays.
Broncos (-7) over Giants
There seems to be a lot of steam behind the Giants right now, as Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo are social media celebrities and the team has actually been finding a lot of success, especially early in games, as they’ve scored the first TD of the game in each of the last five and have scored on their first possession in each of the last three games. Dart has had two of those touchdowns.
They’ve beaten the Chargers, Saints, and Eagles, so a couple of solid teams and then whatever the Saints are in what was their only road game over that stretch. Denver is still ironing out all sorts of issues, but they still have more yards per play than the Giants and have also taken better care of the football this season.
For as much as Bo Nix has been dragged, his EPA+CPOE Composite is not far off of Dart’s and, while Dart’s Success Rate has been higher, Nix’s EPA/play isn’t that far off.
And, as we expected, Denver is now the best defense in the league by yards per play against. They only have four takeaways, but still rank fourth in percentage of opponents’ drives ending in points. The Giants are 20th in that department. The Broncos also have 30 sacks this season, 10 more than any other team.
Denver is safe to use this week because, while they play on Christmas, they are at Kansas City and I don’t think that’s a spot that anybody would be super excited about. The others are the Cowboys at Commanders and Lions at Vikings.
I’ve already used the Broncos and I imagine many entries have. But, if you have them, I do think they’re a viable selection. PoolGenius has them third in win probability at 74%.
Chiefs (-11.5) over Raiders
If you don’t have to worry about a Circa Survivor style contest, you don’t have to overthink this week. The Chiefs seem to have their affairs in order now, as Xavier Worthy is back and everybody’s play seems to be elevated. The dismantling of Detroit in primetime last Sunday seemed to be a pretty good indicator of where they are at right now.
It’s an early kick for the Raiders, who have only beaten the Titans and Patriots this season and they’re probably not beating the current version of the Patriots, as they caught Mike Vrabel’s team at a really good time. Quietly, the Chiefs are third in the NFL in yards after catch. They’ve only turned the ball over twice. They’ve scored on nearly 52% of their possessions.
The Raiders are also doing well with YAC, but not so much in the other areas. They’ve already turned it over 11 times and rank 29th with points on 32.3% of their possessions. Geno Smith has basically been a bottom-five QB this season with the turnovers and Mahomes is playing at a top-10 level, which isn’t his usual standard, but way better than what we saw last season.
KC is 83% to win per PoolGenius. The next closest team is at 74%, so they are overwhelmingly the best choice in that regard. However, because I’m keeping the holidays in mind with Circa Survivor rules, I have to hold them back.
NFL Week 7 Survivor Pick
Patriots (-7) over Titans
Taking a road team always has some challenges, but there are way too many factors to ignore this week to worry about that in my opinion. The Patriots are ninth in EPA/play, but more impressively, are seventh in Dropback Success Rate. Like many of us, I have no idea why TreVeyon Henderson isn’t getting the football to assist the running game, but Drake Maye is playing very well.
Maye is third behind Sam Darnold and Jordan Love in EPA+CPOE Composite. He’s just behind Mahomes and just outside the top five in Success Rate. He’s third in EPA/play.
Last in EPA/play? Cam Ward. Second-to-last in Success Rate? Cam Ward. Last in EPA+CPOE Composite? Cam Ward.
We also get Mike Vrabel against his former employer and there’s probably a bone to pick there. Also, we have a Titans team that just fired their head coach and replaced him with Mike McCoy. McCoy does have head coaching experience, as he went 27-37 with the Chargers from 2013-16. He worked for Patriots OC Josh McDaniels for a bit. So, McDaniels will have an idea of what he’s going to do and vice versa, but one roster is way better than the other one.
Risky? Maybe. But I’ll save my holiday team and take a 3-0 New England team on the road with a three-game winning streak to protect. The Patriots are 74% to win per PoolGenius and the second-ranked team this week.
Week 7 Pick: Patriots
Teams Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Bills, Packers
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