NFL Week 8 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index
In a league built on parity, the week-to-week performances of these professional teams has been insanely difficult to project. Exhibit A: the Patriots have been a corpse all season, only to come alive last week and beat the Bills as double-digit underdogs. The 49ers, who looked like an historically good team early on (and they still might be), have dropped two straight while tumbling back to Earth. While we don’t know what’s in store for Week 8, my T Shoe Index has been pretty reliable on totals, in particular, so this week we’ll try to find some value on those for our best bets. We played two totals last week and went 1-0-1, thanks to a sluggish second half of the Chiefs’ game. TSI is 9-4 this season on totals where there is a 4+ point discrepancy between my projection and the closing line.
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Miami Dolphins (-9) vs New England Patriots, O/U 46
Speaking of the Patriots’ apparent newfound offensive prowess, what better team to play to maintain some offensive momentum than the Dolphins’ defense, which ranks 28th in my defense ratings? Conversely, the Dolphins’ offense is tops in the league, so it’s a reasonable expectation that there are plenty of points scored here, so any contribution from New England should push this game over the total. The Patriots posted their highest offensive rating of the season last week in a game they had to have, so I’m going to take that as a sign Belicheck knows his team’s back is against the wall, and you’re not going to shut down this Dolphins offense, so the only way to give yourself a chance to win is to be able to compete in a higher-scoring game. TSI projects a total of 50 points in this one, so I’ll gladly take this over to as high as 47.5. As I mentioned, the Patriots have been too unpredictable from a spread perspective, but this total is too low to pass on.
Pick: Over 46 (Play to 47.5)
LA Chargers (-8.5) vs Chicago Bears, O/U 46.5
I’m going to stick with the totals theme here in another game between two teams that have no interest in playing a rockfight type of game. These teams rank 29th (Bears) and 25th (Chargers) in the TSI defensive ratings, and the offenses are both in the top half of the league. Those are the basic ingredients for an over here, even despite Bears QB Justin Fields being out. Last week without Fields, the Bears managed to put up 30 points against the Raiders, whose defense is rated higher than this Chargers’ D. TSI projects 50.5 points in this game, which gives us the four-point discrepancy I mentioned that has been so successful this season. I’m going with another over here (what could go wrong?).
Pick: Over 46.5 (Play to 47.5)
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free NFL Guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
