NFL Week 8 Early Best Bets from Mike Somich:
If you are looking for a recap of the Week 6 action with early bets in Week 7, make sure to check out Sharp Money! All the Week 7 bets will be on the Thursday podcast, so make sure to subscribe!
Before we look at Week 8, let’s recap Week 6 and see how our Week 7 bets are doing –
Week 6 Results
The Bet: Philadelphia / New York Giants Under 43.5
This one closed at 40/40.5 and flew over the total, another CLV win with a lost bet.
The Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5
This closed at Bucs -3 / -3.5 and they got home with or without the CLV.
Record: 4-5
CLV: 8-1
Week 7 Check-In
Houston vs. Seattle (-2.5, Total 42.5)
Betting early captured the key number of 3 with this now Seahawks -3.5 across the board.
The Bet: Seattle Seahawks -2.5
Indianapolis +7.5 / Dallas +8.5 Teaser
No change on the Colts numbers, while the Cowboys have ticked down from +2.5 to +2, so still in teaser range.
Week 8 Early Bets
Green Bay (-3, 43.5) vs. Pittsburgh
If you have been following this article, I am sure you have noticed that we have played spots and advantages to likely get closing line value. This one is a little different. I simply cannot get to Packers -3 here. My numbers make this Packers -5.5, and my eye test tells me I want to play against the Steelers as their schedule gets more difficult.
Pittsburgh will have a rest advantage coming off a Thursday game, but even if I adjust a full point for that, I still am over four here.
Let’s simply play the edge here and take the better team.
The Bet: Green Bay Packers -3
San Francisco vs. Houston (-2, 43.5)
While I am sure you are expecting the Under play here, we are going to hit a side. While much of the focus has been on the injuries on the San Francisco offense, it’s now the defense that I am more worried about. The loss of Wagner is huge after already missing Bosa for the season.
Houston’s offense line is going to be a mess, but I am not sure how the 49ers get pressure with the current defensive front. On the other side of the ball, the Texans have a significant edge over a beat-up 49ers offense.
Houston is off the bye this week, and if they show well in Seattle, this number will move to 3 or 3.5 in the Texans direction, so let’s lock up the better number with the healthier team.
The Bet: Houston Texans -2
