NFL Survivor Picks

Survivor players that are still alive and well in their contests have had some pain-free weeks lately. Favorites are covering at a tremendous rate, which also means that they are winning the game straight up. There were a lot of considerations last week – Jaguars, Bills, Rams, Commanders – and all of them won. Three of them won without really breaking much of a sweat.

That’s how it’s supposed to work, but as I’ve mentioned before, you would not like to see a clean sweep of the board. You want your favorite to win, but everybody else’s favorites to lose. Super chalky weeks don’t knock out any of the other competitors. The only real protection you have against a week like that is to take a lesser team that you wouldn’t want to take again, like the Jags or Rams last week.

 

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We’ve got some sizable favorites again this week, but unlike last week, some of them may have already been used up. I’m trying to be cognizant of that each week with the team that is ultimately the pick. Will a lot of contestants have them available? If not, the content loses a lot of luster and, more importantly, application.

Once again, we’ll consult the Survivor tools over at PoolGenius and look at this week’s options before ultimately taking what appears to be the optimal pick for Week 8.

Week 8 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider

Detroit Lions (-11.5) over Tennessee Titans

Because I was in the Circa Survivor contest this season and the last few seasons, I’ve structured this article to keep those rules in mind. So that means Thanksgiving and Christmas are their own weeks. You have to protect yourself by having as many of those teams available as possible, just so that you have options and injury protection.

If you don’t have those rules and it’s just a straight 18-week contest, then this should be the path of least resistance. Jared Goff is playing at an MVP level and they’re at home in the dome. The Titans are a mess with either Will Levis or Mason Rudolph at QB and the defense is falling off now, too. Over the last three weeks, the Titans defense is 26th in EPA/play. They were a top-10 defense to start the season, but they’re not adjusting and the talent level is starting to show.

If you don’t have Thanksgiving considerations, this is the pick.

The Lions are 82% to win per PoolGenius, which is currently their highest-remaining win probability.

New York Jets (-7) over New England Patriots

Finally an opponent that the Jets can handle, right? It really hasn’t been the season that was expected from New York. Robert Saleh is getting interviewed by TMZ at the grocery store about his firing and is now moonlighting with the Packers. Davante Adams is in as a Hail Mary to save the offense. Aaron Rodgers looks pretty cooked, if we’re being honest. The vaunted Jets defense is 14th in EPA/play and has only forced six turnovers.

The Patriots are ostensibly on a short week after coming back from London. They’re a bad team. While there are a lot of things to point to about why the Jets are falling short of their ceiling, they are still third in yards per play allowed and could bump up that EPA with some takeaways. The Patriots had four turnovers in Drake Maye’s first start. While they didn’t turn the ball over last week, they still had just 38 rushing yards, marking a season low.

In their current state, which is not gospel, where else would you want to use them in this contest? They have the Texans, Cardinals*, Colts, Seahawks, Dolphins*, Jaguars*, Rams, Bills*, and Dolphins, with the starred games on the road. I guess you could say the Rams game, but that’s in Week 16. They are on the road, for whatever that’s worth, but this is kind of a must-win game, no?

PoolGenius lists the Jets at 73% to win, but it is their highest current win probability for the season, so that previous paragraph seems truthful.

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) over Las Vegas Raiders

The NFL’s lone undefeated team put forth its best performance of the season last week in the Super Bowl LVIII rematch with the 49ers. It sure felt like the Chiefs turned a corner after a set of close calls and then the bye week. Looking Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice definitely impacted and altered the offense, but they weathered the storm and found a way to come out of it smelling like a rose.

The Raiders are going back to Gardner Minshew with Aidan O’Connell hurt and his weapons are limited. The direction of the organization is cause for concern in every way. It’s hard to be a double-digit home dog in the NFL. Flip home-field and we’re talking about a 14+ point spread. Usually the ceiling for that is in the 17 range and that’s late in the year or with some major injuries.

The Chiefs look and feel quite safe if you have them. Having them left is the question.

PoolGenius says they win 81% of the time, but they actually have three games higher than that as of now.

Los Angeles Chargers (-7) over New Orleans Saints

You can see flashes from Spencer Rattler, but probably not enough to be terribly excited about the Saints’ chances this week at SoFi. The Chargers had a setback on Monday Night Football and are on a short week here. To be honest, they’re the least popular play for me on this list.

But, they merit a mention with NO taking the long trip and a top-five defense. The Chargers are fourth in EPA/play and second in Rush EPA, so that neutralizes some of the weapons for the Saints. And the Chargers offense, while not overly efficient or potent, still grades out better than what the Saints have to offer.

The Chargers are 74% per PoolGenius, which is their highest remaining, but there are other good spots.

For what it’s worth, I didn’t mention the Ravens because I’m assuming a lot of people have used them already, but they’re obviously a consideration against the Browns.

NFL Week 8 Survivor Pick

Denver Broncos (-9.5) over Carolina Panthers

The Panthers hit a new low last week when Marcus Mariota shined after Jayden Daniels left with a rib injury. The Andy Dalton experiment is not working at all and the team has no intentions of going back to Bryce Young, so there’s really nothing to follow for the rest of the Panthers’ season.

To be fair, I think first-year head coach Dave Canales is just trying to protect Young. The offensive line stinks and the weapons, aside from Chuba Hubbard, simply aren’t very good.

Denver has clear and obvious problems, but I’ll tell you one thing that isn’t a problem – this defense is elite. They rank second in EPA/play allowed, second in Dropback EPA, and 10th in Rush EPA. They’re able to give Bo Nix and a marginal offense a chance. And a chance is really all you need to find a way to beat the Panthers, who are spiraling out of control as probably the worst team in the NFL.

I see one other chance to take Denver and it comes on December 2 against Cleveland, as the schedule really increases from here. I’d rather just use them now and worry about December when we get there.

PoolGenius gives the Broncos a win probability of 79% and their next-highest is that Browns game at 67% as of this week.

Survivor Pick Week 8: Broncos

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