Survivor
Patterns are just coincidences more often than not. Take Week 7 in NFL Survivor for example. Weeks 3 and 5 were full of carnage and I (tongue-in-cheek) speculated that it would be an “odd” year in Survivor, in that odd-numbered weeks would be the ones to watch. Well, the Chiefs and Patriots put that quasi-narrative to rest and now we’re back on an even-numbered week, so everything will be okay, right? Right?! Let’s hope so with these Week 8 NFL Survivor thoughts.
Wheeling and dealing has already begun in the Circa Survivor world, as 4,214 entries made it to Week 8 and the implied value per entry is $4,442. I’ve heard through the grapevine that the remaining contestants are pairing up, trading some equity, and are positioning themselves to go as deep as they possibly can by exploring all of the options.
Whether you’re in Circa Survivor, your own pool, or a pool full of randos, there are a lot of points in the contest where it’s more about simply making a pick that you think will win. Saving teams, perhaps trying to go against the grain, transferring your handicapping from thinking about priors to looking at what is happening this season. There is a lot to think about.
Unfortunately, this weekly Survivor “entry” lost a few weeks back, but I’m still going to provide insights all the way through and will not duplicate using any teams, while also being really aware of the teams that might be available to you so the content is relevant. Also, I am “using” Circa Survivor rules, so Thanksgiving and Christmas will be their own “weeks” when we get to that point. It also means a discussion of saving the holiday teams, which may not be relevant to you.
Also, I’ll be implementing some tools from our pals over at PoolGenius, where I am also in their PoolGenius Survivor Bowl, including Stormy Buonantony, Matt Brown, Jonathan Von Tobel, Kelley Bydlon, Will Hill, and Ben Stevens, as well as several other sports betting media members.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks.
Week 8 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Bengals (-6.5) over Jets
The Fightin’ Flaccos are in a great spot here. First of all, the Jets suck. They stink. They’re terrible. They’re awful. Owner Woody Johnson is throwing his QB under the bus. Aaron Glenn can’t figure out how to open the door to even get on the bus. Justin Fields relieved Tyrod Taylor, who is now hurt, against the Panthers. Just a debacle. The Just End The Season acronym is alive and well. At least the Jets are trending towards being able to draft…um…uh…Ty Simpson? Fernando Mendoza? Sawyer Robertson? Josh Hoover?
Anyway, the Bengals should be pretty widely-available and this is easily the best week to use them, even with Joe Burrow still on the shelf. Burrow could be back in time for the game in Miami in Week 16. You could save them until Week 18 against the Browns, who will probably be “Trying for Ty” or “Sucking for Sawyer” or “F-ing up for Fernando” or whatever cutesy and kitschy phrase people come up with for whoever will be the first QB off the board.
But this is a good week to take the Bengals if you want. PoolGenius has them with a 72% win probability, which is actually eighth this week – so there are tons of options.
Bills (-7) over Panthers
Buffalo comes into this game off of the bye, so that’s one checkmark on their side of the ledger. Another is that PoolGenius has them as the third-most likely winner this week at 77%, which is higher than any other game until their Week 18 home game against the Jets, where Josh Allen might not have to play. So, this is a pretty valuable place to use them if you haven’t already.
They lost two games heading into the bye, so they should be uber-focused to get back on track. They’ll also probably face Andy Dalton, as Bryce Young is battling a sprained ankle. Maybe Dalton is an upgrade over Young. It’s not a stretch by any means. It is a little bit uncomfortable to take a road team in Survivor, but with the Bills off of a bye, there are no actual travel concerns or considerations and it’s not like this is a dome team going outside or something.
I burned Buffalo earlier and they burned me, so I can’t take them as the official pick. They’re not my favorite pick anyway, but obviously worthy enough of consideration if you still have them available.
Eagles (-7.5) over Giants
The best spot to take Philadelphia will either be on the Thanksgiving “week” as they have the Black Friday game against the Bears or the Week 15 home game against the Raiders, where they are far and away the best team on paper to use that week as of now.
The Giants had to be in a blender on their flight home from Denver. After that game in altitude, this is a third road game in four weeks and a chance for the Eagles to swat down a team that feels like something of an up-and-comer. I feel like elite teams like to do that. I watched LeBron James do it with the Cavs for years. It’s a revenge game for Philly after losing to the Giants two weeks ago. They have the bye next week, so they can legitimately put everything into this one.
It is very, very hard to see the Eagles losing with all of those things in their favor. PoolGenius agrees at 74% win probability, which, I’ll be honest, feels a little light to me.
Patriots (-7) over Browns
The Patriots have reeled off four wins in a row and five of their last six as they head into a home game against the Browns. Cleveland played their best game of the season by far last time out against Miami, but (spoiler alert) the Dolphins are cheeks. Like a bad BBL level of cheeks. So, I can understand why people haven’t taken a lot of stock in that victory.
This is a step up in class for Cleveland to say the least and the Browns are back out on the road yet again. And it’s also the week before their bye, with Kevin Stefanski’s job seemingly hanging in the balance. The players are probably looking ahead to a few days in Puerto Vallarta or Cabo or Cancun or Vegas or somewhere else, since the NFL CBA requires a minimum of four consecutive days off for the players and the four days must include a Saturday or Sunday.
You can either take a shot with the Patriots here or wait until Week 11 when they host the Jets. They host the Dolphins in Week 18, so that’s a bummer because it’s hard to wait that long because you have to get through 17 (or more) weeks by then. In the article, I used the Pats last week. PoolGenius has them at 72% this week if you want to go that route.
Chiefs (-12.5) over Commanders
No Jayden Daniels for the Commanders this week as they draw the Monday Night Football spotlight against the Chiefs. KC has won four of the last five and seems to be “back” in the minds of most, especially with that impressive win against Detroit in a similar primetime spotlight still fresh.
It is hard to argue with taking KC here if you have them. They’re not really a great option for the next several weeks, as they are at Buffalo, BYE, at Denver, vs. Colts, and at Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
But, therein lies the tough decision. The Chiefs play on both holidays. Taking them at Dallas or at home against the Broncos is not as advantageous of a spot as this one is, but if you have to follow those holiday rules, it is extremely hard to burn a team playing on both of them. That’s one of the reasons why I’m keeping them. It’s the primary reason, to be honest. They are the second choice on the board here at 85% per PoolGenius.
So, if you don’t have the holiday considerations, they are at or near the top of your list.
Colts (-14) over Titans
This will be a calculated decision for me to leave the Colts for a future date. Let’s walk through this one.
This is clearly the biggest favorite of the week. With the way these two teams are playing, this feels like an uncontested, fast-break layup. But, the Colts have also emerged as one of the NFL’s elite teams. On a week when I’m in a bind or a pinch, I can at least take solace in the fact that I’m running out a really good team.
The Catch-22 here is that the Colts have already played the easy part of their schedule, with the two Tennessee games, Raiders, and Dolphins after this weekend. Per PoolGenius, their next best opportunity is against the Jaguars in Week 17 at home. They are 64% against the Falcons in Week 10 per PG, but that game is in Berlin, so I’m not excited about the prospects of that one.
Week 13 looks promising against the Texans at home, but the Chargers host the Raiders and that’s a much better option, at least as of now. Nevertheless, I’ll save one of the league’s best teams and take my chances with another
NFL Week 8 Survivor Pick
Falcons (-7.5) over Dolphins
Remember, you have to use either 18 or 20 of the 32 NFL teams to get through Survivor unblemished. That means having to find the best spots to take some average or slightly above average teams. This is one of those spots. The Falcons are better than a 3-3 team on paper, even with the underwhelming performance of Michael Penix Jr. to this point.
Their defense has allowed fewer than five yards per play and the offense has a respectable 5.6 YPP. This is one of the best rushing teams in the NFL and the game state suggests that they will have a lead to protect in the fourth quarter. That should be helpful against a Dolphins team that looked incredibly disinterested against the Browns last week.
Maybe it was the weather, as it was windy, rainy, and miserable and this game will be played indoors. I think it’s more about how the team knows this is a lost season and it’s only a matter of time until Mike McDaniel is fired. It may not happen until Week 11 when they leave him in Madrid after the game against Washington, which probably isn’t a bad place to be left on the tarmac. The bye comes after that.
I guess the two hold-ups are that the Dolphins have actually played a lot of competitive games this season and three of their six losses are by six or fewer points and that the Colts look like such an obvious choice.
But, for a Falcons team that has the Patriots and Colts the next two weeks, this is a pretty important game. I’ll take my chances on them here to fade the Dolphins and save the Colts for another week where they aren’t going to be as likely to win, but are still more trustworthy than most.
Week 8 NFL Survivor Pick: Falcons
Teams Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Bills, Packers, Patriots
Follow the link for the rest of our NFL Week 8 content.
