NFL Survivor Picks

After a few weeks of smooth sailing in NFL Survivor contests, we saw some bumps in the road last week. The Patriots and Browns both won as touchdown or more underdogs. But, I’m not sure how impactful the losses for the Jets and Ravens were, as the Jets aren’t super trustworthy these days and the Ravens probably weren’t available for many entrants that are left. The Broncos, Lions, Chargers, and Chiefs all took care of their affairs.

So the field may have thinned a bit in your contests, but maybe not as much as you might have liked. That said, it was what I talked about last week. You want a week where your favorite wins and other favorites lose and so it had to be at least something of a positive.

 

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This week’s options are pretty interesting across the board. Let’s examine what to consider and ultimately what I think is the optimal choice.

Once again, we’ll consult the Survivor tools over at PoolGenius and look at this week’s options.

Week 9 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider

Baltimore Ravens (-9) over Denver Broncos

The Broncos are playing decent football, especially on defense, and Baltimore is really banged up on defense. There is still no excuse for Baltimore not to win this game and they represent a big step up for a Denver team that has beaten the hapless Panthers, Saints without Carr, and the Raiders for their last three victories.

This is far and away the best team that the Broncos have played this season, period. And, look I will say this – if you haven’t used Baltimore yet… The remaining schedule is Bengals, Steelers*, Chargers*, Eagles, Giants*, Steelers, Texans*, Browns, with the starred games on the road. I guess the road game against the Giants could be lined in this range.

The Ravens are 79% to win per PoolGenius.

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) over Las Vegas Raiders

Joe Burrow called it a must-win game against the Raiders this week, basically noting that they are all must-win games from this point forward. Stop me if you’ve heard or thought this at some point during the 2024 season, but the Bengals should win this game. They also should have won a few games this season that they haven’t and are responsible for a lot of early exits.

A token mention here given the spread, but I wouldn’t trust this team as far as I could throw them and, to be honest, I’m not very strong.

PoolGenius has the Bengals at 73% to win.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

Do you still have the Eagles available? I would think a good number of Survivor entries that are still alive have Philly at their disposal. Maybe they were used against the Browns, which is where I used them in this article. Maybe you took them on the road against the Giants. But, I don’t know that they’ve been an overly popular selection while seemingly working through quite a few things.

Philly still has two big favorite roles left with the Panthers on Dec. 8 and the Giants on Jan. 5, given that it looks like they could need that game for something playoff-related based on where things currently stand.

Admittedly, if you have them, I don’t think this is a bad route to go (full disclosure, I like Jaguars +7.5). I don’t see them as a viable option the next four weeks, so you’re looking at holding off for a while until you can take them against Carolina.

The Eagles are 78% to win per PoolGenius.

Buffalo Bills (-6) over Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins do have Tua Tagovailoa back, but Buffalo is just on another level right now. Not only that, but they’ve owned this rivalry lately. I know all of the players and coaches aren’t the same, but the Bills have won five in a row and 12 of 13. 

Mike McDaniel beat the Bills the first time he faced Sean McDermott. That was a 21-19 win in September 2022. Buffalo outgained Miami 497-212 in that game. The Bills ran 86 plays to Miami’s 37. It is arguably the most misleading NFL box score in the last decade.

There will be safer spots to take Buffalo, but when? Their upcoming schedule is Colts*, Chiefs, 49ers, Rams*, Lions*, Patriots, Jets, Patriots* (* road game). They are a great team and are power-rated near the top, but in terms of clear-cut favorite roles that you’d feel comfortable with in a Survivor context, I would argue that this is the one until that Patriots game in late December. But, I’d also argue you can hold them until then with the other options this week.

The Bills are 69% (nice) to win per PoolGenius.

Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

KC is actually the No. 1 team for PoolGenius with a win probability of 84%. I get it and the Bucs are horribly shorthanded without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But, the Chiefs worry me enough to not pull the trigger here. They are undefeated, but they’ve played a bunch of one-score games and some of them have even come against mediocre QB. I wanted to mention them because PoolGenius has them as the top play, but they have three other 80%+ spots in the next four weeks. I’ll save them for now.

NFL Week 9 Survivor Pick

New Orleans Saints (-7) over Carolina Panthers

Derek Carr is expected back. The big worry here is the rust factor, as Carr hasn’t played since Week 5 against Kansas City. And yet he’s still the team’s top passer by more than 400 yards. It has been ugly without him and it should be a lot less ugly with him.

You also get the chance to pick against Bryce Young here, which is 3-for-3 in games he’s started with losses of 47-10, 26-3, and 28-14. I’m never thrilled with taking a road team in a contest like this unless you have to and many will shy away from a divisional road team like the Saints are.

However, the Saints may not be favored again until Week 14 at the Giants or Week 17 at home against the Raiders. Remember what I’ve said, depending on the rules of your Survivor pool, at least 18 teams are going to be required to get you home, unless your contest somehow ends early.

The Saints badly need a win. The Panthers are in really bad shape on both sides of the ball and Young just isn’t an NFL QB. Carr is.

New Orleans is 76% to win per PoolGenius.

Pick: Saints

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