Survivor
They say “waiting is the hardest part”. Well, maybe it’s better not to wait sometimes. In this article last week, my decision came down to taking what felt like a layup with the Colts or saving Indy for a tougher week as a better team than the Falcons, who I ultimately wound up picking. Me and a lot of other people, especially in Circa Survivor, where we are down to 2,057 entries because nearly 33% of the field was wiped out by Kirk Cousins. Welcome to Week 9 NFL Survivor!
By the way, another 18% of the field fell victim to trying to sneak the Bengals through against the Jets in what was a truly horrific beat. Is it better to have your heart ripped out or to take a team that never even gave themselves a chance? The answer is neither.
The implied value of a Circa Survivor entry is now $9,100, so a good 9x what the entry fee was, meaning if you can survive long enough, you’re getting some pretty good returns on your investment. It was about a 4.4x increase going into Week 8.
Did I learn a lesson last week? Yes and no. Yes, sometimes it is better to just take the win and move on. The NFL is very fluid. Injuries happen. Things change. Best-laid plans don’t work out. But, also, no because if given the chance to run it back and do it again, I’d probably come to the same conclusion since you need to pick 20/32 teams to win Circa Survivor or 18/32 to win whatever Survivor pool you’re in with more traditional rules, assuming it lasts the entire season.
A now-closed bar in Las Vegas used to sell what were basically Russian Roulette Deviled Eggs. Six came to an order, with two of each kind. One kind was basically like a Carolina reaper/ghost pepper jelly filled deviled egg. If spicy foods weren’t your thing and you drew the short straw, you found out the hard way what picking wrong can do. I got burned last week.
Anyway, I trudge on with the article, still trying to provide some insight, advice, and the full picture of what each possible Survivor team has in front of them. And like I’ve said, I’ll try to keep widely-available teams in mind and not repeat any that I’ve taken so far.
PoolGenius has great NFL Survivor Tools and also NFL Pick ‘Em Tools for you to check out. For this season, they also have Circa Survivor tools set up to account for the holiday weeks.
Week 9 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider
Patriots (-5.5) over Falcons
As solid as the Patriots have played, especially during this five-game winning streak, opportunities to take them are getting a little bit slim. They do host the Jets in Week 11 and that’s probably the optimal place. But, they’re 71% per PoolGenius this week, as Atlanta goes back to Michael Penix. Penix hasn’t really played that well anyway, posting a 5/3 TD/INT ratio this season.
Advanced metrics site RBSDM has Drake Maye as the No. 1 QB in the NFL by EPA+CPOE Composite, which is Expected Points Added and Completion Percentage Over Expected. That’s ahead of Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, and Daniel Jones, who are all in the top five. Only Love and Jones have a higher EPA/play. Maye has completed 78% of his passes. Penix is 24th in EPA+CPOE Composite, so New England has an enormous QB advantage here.
Big QB advantages are nice. They go a long way in Survivor. Big QB disadvantages are bad. Just ask the corpse of Cousins.
Lions (-8.5) over Vikings
If you have to worry about the holidays, the Lions really can’t be on your shortlist. They play on both Thanksgiving and Christmas, so they’re a team you have to wait to use. If you don’t have to worry about that, this is a pretty good spot. JJ McCarthy is back from injury, but the Lions are fresh off of a bye and the only better spot per PoolGenius is Week 12 against the Giants at 80%.
They’re 77% this week according to their tools and the Vikings just haven’t looked the part at all this season. QB injuries haven’t helped, but the vaunted Brian Flores defense only has 18 sacks and they are 14th in yards per play allowed.
It’s entirely possible that McCarthy’s return helps on both sides of the ball, but I wouldn’t be scared of using Detroit.
Chargers (-9.5) over Titans
Justin Herbert takes the show on the road to battle the Titans in Nashville and this is a big road favorite role for the AFC West dwellers. It’s an early kick at Noon local time, but LA is on extra rest after crushing the Vikings last Thursday night. Tennessee has scored more than 20 points in a game just once this season and it was a very, very lucky win over Arizona.
Since then, they’ve lost three straight by double digits. The bye is next week for a team that is -120 in point differential already and you have to think that rookie Cam Ward is ready for a break. His rookie campaign has not been an enjoyable one, including the firing of head coach Brian Callahan.
Despite the fact that this is a road game, it is the Chargers’ highest game by win probability per PoolGenius at 80% and it is the third-highest of the week.
Packers (-13) over Panthers
There probably aren’t a lot of entries still holding the Packers. A lot of people got really unlucky and played their only loss of the season against the Browns. They beat the Bengals as a pretty popular pick in Week 6. Obviously they’re at or near the top of the list this week if they are still an option.
Bryce Young has no injury designation this week, but he’s not exactly having a standout season. Meanwhile, Jordan Love is and I mentioned above that a big QB advantage is a really comforting thing when it comes to making a Survivor pick. I also don’t think enough people are talking about the Green Bay defense, which is second in the NFL in yards per play allowed.
Potent offense that has been one of the best in the league at scoring first and a complementary defense able to help those leads stand up? It’s hard to pass on Green Bay if you have them. PoolGenius has them as the No. 1 option this week at 87%, though they do have two other games with a 75% win probability, so there are other chances to use them. Plus they’re a Thanksgiving team if you have to worry about that.
NFL Week 9 Survivor Pick
Rams (-14) over Saints
Perhaps I did learn a lesson last week. Take the team. Take the win. The Rams are having a very nice season at 5-2 and have some pretty impressive stats. But, there also hasn’t been a great time to take them yet this season. They opened with a Texans team that has a very good defense and then played the Titans on the road, Eagles on the road, Colts at home, 49ers at home, Ravens on the road, and Jaguars on the road. Maybe facing Tennessee on the road was a good spot, but the others haven’t been ideal.
This one is. The Saints are going to give Tyler Shough a try as opposed to Spencer Rattler, which is a lot like saying I’m going to try slamming my hand in the car door instead of punching the concrete wall.
The Rams and old man Stafford are off of a bye after pummeling the Jaguars in London. I guess you could be concerned about the fact that they play the 49ers, Seahawks, and Bucs over the next three weeks, but even looking ahead, it seems unlikely that they’d lose to the Saints.
PoolGenius has the Rams at 86% to win and no other spots are higher than 75% (at Carolina), so this is the optimal time to roll with them.
Week 9 NFL Survivor Pick: Rams
Teams Used: Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Texans, Bills, Packers, Patriots, Falcons
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