NFL Wild Card Best Bets and Props from Mike Somich:

Here are my NFL Wild Card best bets and props:

 

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Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5; 45.5)

Let’s open this up with my favorite bet of the weekend. When this line opened at Eagles -3.5, I immediately played the Eagles. I made this game closer to Eagles -6.5 for a couple of reasons. First, let’s look at the numbers.

In Brazil, on a neutral site, Philly closed -1.5, a game that we bet the Eagles since I made it close to 3. When we go from a neutral site to Philadelphia, that line moves to Eagles -3. Since Week 1, I’ve upgraded slightly more than 3 points and the Packers about a half point. Now we are at Eagles -5.5. When you account for the injuries at the wide receiver position for Green Bay, we start to creep higher.

When you dive into the season numbers, the Eagles possess the advantage on both sides of the ball. If they can jump out, as we have seen quite a few teams do to this Packers team, they should be able to control the game. The Packers are also 2-5 versus playoff teams and 0-5 against teams I have power ranked higher than them, including this Eagles team.

Let’s lay it with the better team.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -4.5

Los Angeles Chargers (-3; 42.5) vs. Houston Texans

I do lean toward the Chargers here at -2.5, but at 3, it’s tough to justify the inflated price. They have the clear advantage at coach and quarterback, but this will be the Chargers’ third week in a row on the road with the Texans off a defacto bye, resting their starters for the majority of the game in Week 18.

Both teams have employed a run-first style of offense all season. Both defenses are capable of making life difficult early downs if neither team breaks the trend. Of the two, Los Angeles is much more likely to break and throw the football on early downs, but they do not have the weapons to create big plays down the field consistently.

While Nico Collins is capable of stretching the field, the lack of ancillary weapons makes it hard to imagine Houston being able to go up and down the field consistently. Let’s look at the under here.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Under 42.5

Prop Plays

Jalen McMillian Over 49.5 Rec Yards
While other rookie wide receivers have been stealing the spotlight all season, McMillian has stepped up in the absence of Chris Godwin. He has become the clear #2 target in this offense and faces a secondary that is anything but daunting. McMillian has gone over this total in five straight games, getting at least five targets in each. During that same five-game stretch, he has found the endzone seven times, so I also played Over 49.5 reception yards plus an anytime touchdown at +300.

Jayden Daniels Over 46.5 Rush Yards
We lost with Daniels in Week 18 after he got pulled after the first half against Dallas. To that point, he had four carries for 27 yards and was on pace to get to the Over. That would have made it four straight games hitting the Over after the much-needed bye week for Washington. A healthy Daniels is a running Daniels, and in the highest-leverage game of the season, I expect him to use his legs.

Other Plays:
Bo Nix Over 220.5 Passing Yards
Josh Jacobs Under 70.5 Rush Yards

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