NFL Wild Card Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

Now is the time to change your Super Bowl LIX pick from the preseason or stick with it. Although tempted to call an audible and go with the Bills out of the AFC, I’ll stick with my prediction from the VSiN season preview guide — Eagles over Chiefs. I bet Philadelphia at 16-1 odds over the summer and still like my chances with the NFC’s No. 2 seed. Here are my NFL wild-card weekend best bets:

 

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Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Houston Texans

Not many teams nail a coaching hire and a first-round pick in the same offseason, but the Chargers hit both on the head by hiring Jim Harbaugh, who drafted offensive tackle Joe Alt from Notre Dame at No. 5 overall. An offense triggered by quarterback Justin Herbert benefits greatly from having two stud tackles, Alt and Rashawn Slater. The Chargers also hit on their second-round pick, slot receiver Ladd McConkey, who led the team with 82 receptions and 1,149 yards. Herbert finished the regular season with 23 touchdown passes — seven to McConkey — and three interceptions. 

The Herbert-McConkey connection will continue to click against the Houston defense. Harbaugh’s plan to be physical up front and run the ball more to help Herbert came to fruition. Leading rusher J.K. Dobbins is healthy and ready to roll. Harbaugh’s defensive coordinator, Jesse Minter, constructed the league’s No. 1 scoring defense (17.7 ppg). 

Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud suffered some serious regression in his second season, in part because of a below-average offensive line and injuries to key receivers. The Texans went 1-5 against playoff teams and seem unlikely to flip the switch and turn things around now. I bought what Harbaugh was selling from the start, and this is no time to turn back. The Chargers, who went from 5-12 last season to 11-6, appear to be peaking and playing with confidence. The line is -2.5 at South Point, but -3 is the consensus number, and it’s easy to find more reasons to support the road favorite. 

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Los Angeles Chargers -3

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)

The declining play of quarterback Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh offense — 14.3 ppg during a four-game losing streak — is obviously troublesome. The tale of the tape for the quarterbacks is a mismatch and favors Lamar Jackson, who passed for 12 touchdowns with one interception in the last four games. Jackson will be without injured top receiver Zay Flowers and will lean even more on Derrick Henry, who rushed for 162 yards on 24 carries in Baltimore’s 34-17 victory over Pittsburgh in Week 16. The perception is the Ravens romped in the December meeting, but the game was tied at 17 late in the third quarter. 

The pressure to perform is on Jackson, who owns only two career postseason wins, and he has a long history of problems with the Steelers and their T.J. Watt-led defense. While the third meeting between these division rivals figures to go the Ravens’ way, don’t count out Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin in the underdog role. With so much negativity swirling around the slumping Steelers, this should be the time to buy low and take the inflated number. It’s important to note I’m not taking +9.5 when a few books outside of Las Vegas are showing 10. It’s also important to report both sides of the story — Tomlin has failed to win or cover five consecutive playoff games, and double-digit ‘dogs are 5-13 in the postseason in the past 14 years — so I’m taking out some insurance by putting Baltimore on a three-team moneyline parlay.

NFL Wild Card Best Bets: Pittsburgh Steelers +10 and Ravens/Bills/Eagles moneyline parlay (-105)

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)

When quarterback Bo Nix went to the Broncos at No. 12 overall in the draft, coach Sean Payton was criticized. Payton got it right with the Nix pick. Nix went 10-7 straight up and 12-5 ATS as a starter. Denver’s success has had more to do with its third-ranked scoring defense (18.3 ppg). It’s dangerous to underestimate Payton and the Broncos’ superior defense. It’s also difficult to envision Nix, in his first playoff start on the road, beating Bills quarterback Josh Allen. As a home favorite of 7.5 points or more, Allen is 23-1 straight up in his career, according to Evan Abrams of the Action Network. Allen is not going to be denied, although I get the sense this is not going to come easily for Buffalo.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Bills -2.5/Rams +8.5 on a 6-point teaser

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams

The home-field advantage the Rams earned by winning the NFC West has been negated by the Los Angeles wildfires, forcing this game to be moved to Glendale, Ariz. In Week 8 in L.A., Matthew Stafford passed for 279 yards and four touchdowns as the Rams beat the Vikings 30-20. 

This is a tough spot for Minnesota, a 14-win team which was drubbed 31-9 in Detroit in the regular-season finale that decided the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed. Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold could be rattled after his poor performance against the Lions. Rams coach Sean McVay rolled the dice and probably played it right by resting Stafford and several other starters in Week 18. I still like the Rams to win this game, but the bet is not as attractive with the location change, so I’m teasing the underdog up through key numbers. I will play the Rams if the line reaches +3.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Bills -2.5/Rams +8.5 on a 6-point teaser

For more NFL Wild Card analysis, visit the NFL Wild Card Hub, exclusively at VSiN.com.

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